# Cincinnati Bengals v New England Patriots — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cincinnati Bengals 20 – 26 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots see off a gallant Cincinnati Bengals._

Half time: 13 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 1% / New England Patriots 99% · Paycor Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cincinnati Bengals: Geno Stone (16'), Mitchell Tinsley (56') · New England Patriots: Hunter Henry (21'), Marcus Jones (23')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 99% | Won |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.7 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cincinnati Bengals vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Cincinnati Bengals 20–26 New England Patriots in NFL Week 12 at Paycor Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Cincinnati led this one and still lost it, which tells you plenty about how the afternoon went. The Bengals were up 10-6 in the second quarter after Ryan Stone's score, had the Patriots chasing, and then watched New England reel off 20 of the next 26 points to turn a competitive game into a 26-20 defeat.

The turn came fast. Hunter Henry answered Stone's touchdown at the 9:43 mark of the second quarter, and Mason... well, M. Jones put New England in front for good just under two minutes later. From CIN 10, NE 6 to CIN 10, NE 13 in barely ninety seconds of game clock. Cincinnati never led again. The Bengals trailed 13-17 at the break, 13-20 through three quarters, and by the time Mitchell Tinsley got them back within four with 4:45 to go, the gap had already hardened into something they couldn't quite close.

New England won the yardage battle, 401 to 317, and did it mostly through the air. Drake Maye threw for 294 on 22-of-35, with Henry alone accounting for 115 of those yards and 7 catches to go with his touchdown. Joe Flacco was serviceable rather than sharp for Cincinnati, 19-of-37 for 183 and a touchdown, but a pick as well. Chase Brown was the one bright spot up front, grinding out 107 yards on 19 carries, and Cincinnati actually won the rushing count 120 to 107. Trouble is, you can't out-run a team that's out-throwing you by more than a hundred yards.

The efficiency numbers explain the scoreboard better than the yardage does. New England's offensive EPA sat at 0.2, Cincinnati's at minus 12. That's the story of a team moving the ball but not converting it into points at the same rate, and it lines up with the pre-match positional read: New England held the edge at quarterback, 63 to 53, and in the receiving corps, 59 to 53. Those two edges are exactly where this game was decided, in Maye's arm and Henry's hands.

Cincinnati's form coming in was rough, one win from five, conceding almost 36 points a game on average, and this result won't do much to fix that read. New England arrived unbeaten in five straight and finished the job the way that sort of form usually suggests it will, comfortable enough without ever fully running away.

Alphr's model had New England at 99% to win before kickoff, with the ratings gap, 1534 to 1427, pointing to a expected margin of 9.7 points on a projected total of 57. The final gap came in at 6, so the model called the winner with no fuss and got the shape of the margin close enough, even if Cincinnati's own scoring kept it tighter than projected. Good process, honest result. The kind of week the model's meant to have.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 3 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| New England Patriots | 0 | 17 | 3 | 6 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 317 | Total Yards | **401** |
| 197 | Passing Yards | **294** |
| **120** | Rushing Yards | 107 |
| 28 | First Downs | **31** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -12 | Offensive EPA | **0.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 99% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting New England Patriots by 9.7 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Land Clark's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Land Clark's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 67% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.25 (edge +18.9%) — model probability 98.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 10 · Predicted total: 57

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 99% to see off Cincinnati Bengals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 108 ELO points clear, 1534 to 1427. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has New England Patriots by 9.7, with the two sides combining for about 57. New England Patriots to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New England Patriots have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 26-20 in 2025 Week 12.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Joe Flacco starts under centre for Cincinnati Bengals, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Zac Taylor and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

New England Patriots come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, Cincinnati Bengals $4.10 and New England Patriots $1.25, with the spread at New England Patriots -7.5 and the total at 50.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cincinnati Bengals 3 · New England Patriots 9 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 26-20 (2025) |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-6 home |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Joe Flacco · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Zac Taylor · Mike Vrabel |
| Rest | Cincinnati Bengals 7d · New England Patriots 10d |
| Market | Cincinnati Bengals $4.10 · New England Patriots $1.25 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -7.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 1W–4L | 20% |
| New England Patriots | 4W–2L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

When Land Clark officiates, New England Patriots have won 4 of 6 games (67%), significantly stronger than Cincinnati Bengals's 1 from 5 (20%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (5 games for Cincinnati Bengals).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cincinnati Bengals | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 28.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 35.6pts | Avg Conceded | 17.2pts |
| -7.0pts | Avg Margin | 11.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W9 L · W11 L | 28.6 |
| New England Patriots | W7 W · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Cincinnati Bengals | 20 – 26 | New England Patriots |
| 2024 | W1 | Cincinnati Bengals | 10 – 16 | New England Patriots |
| 2022 | W16 | New England Patriots | 18 – 22 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2019 | W15 | Cincinnati Bengals | 13 – 34 | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | W6 | New England Patriots | 35 – 17 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Paycor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·1) | 1/1g | 19/23g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.18 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/20g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 8/19g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/14g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Drew Sample | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jake Browning | QB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Mitchell Tinsley | WR | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 25% | — | 🏉 56' |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Gary Brightwell | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Mike Gesicki | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 21' |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Terrell Jennings | RB | 1 in 4g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: H.Henry, M.Jones

**Cincinnati Bengals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: G.Stone, M.Tinsley

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cincinnati Bengals 1427 · New England Patriots 1534 · ELO difference: 108 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cincinnati Bengals | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 63 | New England Patriots +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 59 | New England Patriots +6 |
| Backfield | 56 | 54 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 49 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 63 | 63 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | New England Patriots |

**Model Confidence: 99%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 57 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)