# Baltimore Ravens v New York Jets — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Baltimore Ravens 23 – 10 New York Jets

_Baltimore Ravens roar back to outsmart New York Jets._

Half time: 3 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Baltimore Ravens 95% / New York Jets 5% · M&T Bank Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (37' Tipped ⚡), Derrick Henry (42' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Metchie (26')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 95% | Won |
| New York Jets | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 21.8 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Baltimore Ravens vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Baltimore Ravens 23–10 New York Jets in NFL Week 12 at M&T Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two different ideas of how to move a football, and only one of them left with the points. New York Jets piled up 300 yards to Baltimore's 222, moved the chains 25 times to 20, and still lost 23-10. Baltimore Ravens took the shorter route: three sacks, zero turnovers, and Derrick Henry running through the middle of a game that the Jets were, on paper, winning.

The scoreboard told a different story to the stat sheet for a while. New York led 7-3 at half-time off John Metchie III's touchdown with 4:09 left in the second quarter, and Tyrod Taylor was moving the ball nicely, finishing 17-of-28 for 222 yards. But quantity without conversion is just noise, and Baltimore's offence, for all its modest 251 yards, was the one doing damage where it counted: plus-6.9 in expected points per snap against the Jets' offence, which is the gap that actually decided this.

Henry is why. He broke through for touchdowns at the 8:54 and 3:35 marks of the third quarter, turning a 3-7 deficit into a 17-7 lead inside one quarter, and finished with 64 yards on 21 carries. Not a dazzling number, but two scores from it and Baltimore's rushing tally of 98 against New York's 78 tells you who was controlling the line when it mattered. Lamar Jackson didn't need to do much around him, 13-of-23 for 153 yards, and didn't have to.

New York's issue wasn't generating yards, it was cashing them in. Breece Hall was the game's leading receiver with 4 catches for 75 yards, and Taylor threw for more than Jackson by 69 yards, yet the Jets managed one touchdown to Baltimore's two. Two turnovers against Baltimore's none is the difference between a competitive stat line and a competitive scoreboard, and Baltimore's pass rush, getting home three times to the Jets' one, kept squeezing possessions that started with promise.

The positional numbers pointed this way before kick-off. Baltimore held the edge in secondary, 63 to 54, and special teams, 67 to 62, both areas that show up in field position and finishing rather than gaudy yardage totals. The Jets actually rated ahead in the backfield, 58 to 54, and it showed in the raw rushing efficiency, but Baltimore's other edges, however slim on paper at quarterback and receiving corps, were enough once turnovers and sacks were added to the ledger.

Form lined up with the pattern too. Baltimore came in 4-1 across their last five with an average margin of plus-7.4, New York 2-3 at minus-2.8, conceding nearly 22 points a game over that stretch. Both trends showed up here, just with a twist: the Jets moved the ball better than their form suggested, but leaked it exactly as often as their record implied.

Alphr's model had Baltimore at 95 percent to win with a predicted margin of 21.8 from ratings of 1591 to 1362. The final gap was 13, tighter than forecast thanks to New York's yardage advantage, but the winner was never really in doubt. Ball control beat raw metres again, and it usually does.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 0 | 3 | 14 | 6 | 23 |
| New York Jets | 0 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 251 | Total Yards | **300** |
| 153 | Passing Yards | **222** |
| **98** | Rushing Yards | 78 |
| 20 | First Downs | **25** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **-2.8** | Offensive EPA | -9.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 95% probability. The predicted margin of 21.8 was reasonable against the actual 13-point result. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 33 points was 13 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Baltimore Ravens's victory aligns with Clete Blakeman's historical trend, Baltimore Ravens have a 67% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.10 (edge +3.7%) — model probability 95.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +14 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 22 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 95% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 229 ELO points clear, 1591 to 1362. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for New York Jets.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 21.8, with the two sides combining for about 43. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 10 of the last 11 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 23-10 in 2025 Week 12.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Lamar Jackson starts under centre for Baltimore Ravens, Tyrod Taylor for New York Jets, with John Harbaugh and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

New York Jets come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Baltimore Ravens $1.10 and New York Jets $7.75, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -14 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Baltimore Ravens 10 · New York Jets 1 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 23-10 (2025) |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 3-6 home |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Lamar Jackson · Tyrod Taylor |
| Head coaches | John Harbaugh · Aaron Glenn |
| Rest | Baltimore Ravens 7d · New York Jets 10d |
| Market | Baltimore Ravens $1.10 · New York Jets $7.75 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -14 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Baltimore Ravens

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 10W–5L | 67% |
| New York Jets | 5W–8L | 38% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Baltimore Ravens have won 10 of 15 games (67%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 5 from 13 (38%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Baltimore Ravens | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 22.2pts | Avg Score | 19.4pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| 7.4pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | W6 L · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W · W11 W | 22.2 |
| New York Jets | W6 L · W7 L · W8 W · W10 W · W11 L | 19.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Baltimore Ravens | 23 – 10 | New York Jets |
| 2022 | W1 | New York Jets | 9 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2019 | W15 | Baltimore Ravens | 42 – 21 | New York Jets |
| 2016 | W7 | New York Jets | 24 – 16 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2013 | W12 | Baltimore Ravens | 19 – 3 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at M&T Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (2·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 17/16g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.45 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.40 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 42' |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 28/61g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/43g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/16g | 15% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 1/7g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Devontez Walker | WR | 2 in 4g | 3/7g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 20/58g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 22% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/22g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 6/23g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 8/28g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/10g | 7% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Allen Lazard | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyrod Taylor | QB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Metchie

**Baltimore Ravens** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 48% · **scored Q3, Q3**
- ⚡ Mark Andrews 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Justice Hill — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- ⚡ Lamar Jackson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 3 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Baltimore Ravens 1591 · New York Jets 1362 · ELO difference: 229 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Baltimore Ravens | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 46 | Baltimore Ravens +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 48 | Even |
| Backfield | 54 | 58 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 63 | 54 | Baltimore Ravens +9 |
| Special Teams | 67 | 62 | Baltimore Ravens +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | New York Jets |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 22 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)