# Arizona Cardinals v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 12 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 24 – 27 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Jacksonville Jaguars rally to hunt down Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 14 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 66% / Jacksonville Jaguars 34% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 24 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Walter Nolen (13'), Knight (23'), Greg Dortch (53') · Jacksonville Jaguars: Travis Etienne (8' Tipped ⚡), Jakobi Meyers (37' Tipped ⚡), Parker Washington (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 66% | Lost |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 34% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 12, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 24 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Arizona Cardinals 24–27 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 12 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville won 27-24 in overtime, and on the surface that reads as a scrap decided by a single score. Look at the turnover column and it reads very differently. Jacksonville coughed the ball up four times. Arizona didn't lose it once. A team that clean rarely finds itself in overtime, let alone losing it.

The scoreboard tells you it stayed level all night. Travis Etienne opened the scoring for Jacksonville inside the first quarter, Arizona answered before the break to lead 14-10 at half-time, and from there it was push and shove. Jakobi Meyers had Jacksonville back in front through the third, Greg Dortch put Arizona ahead again with 7:19 left in the fourth, and Parker Washington's score with 3:54 to go forced the extra period. Arizona had the lead three separate times in the fourth quarter alone and still couldn't close it out.

The yardage says Jacksonville deserved to be in the fight. They outgained Arizona 390 to 370 and did it on the ground, running for 134 yards against Arizona's 55. That gap lines up with the pre-match read: Jacksonville's backfield was rated well clear of Arizona's, 59 to 44, and Etienne's 86 yards on 15 carries is exactly that edge showing up on the stat sheet. Arizona's response was through the air, 36 first downs to 31 and a stronger receiving corps rating backing it up, but Jacksonville's pass rush kept getting home, six sacks to three, and that pressure is where the turnovers came from.

Individually it's a mixed bag for Jacksonville. Trevor Lawrence threw three touchdowns but also three interceptions, 18 from 30 for 256 yards, and those picks are most of the turnover count that should have buried his side. Jacoby Brissett was efficient by comparison for Arizona, 33 of 49 for 317 yards and a touch

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 0 | 24 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 3 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 370 | Total Yards | **390** |
| **315** | Passing Yards | 256 |
| 55 | Rushing Yards | **134** |
| **36** | First Downs | 31 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 4 |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **6** |
| **-11.2** | Offensive EPA | -11.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Jacksonville Jaguars defied the model's 66% prediction for Arizona Cardinals, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 1.4 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 51, within 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 6 points above Scott Novak's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $2.14 (edge +19.4%) — model probability 66.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 1 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Arizona Cardinals here: 66% to see off Jacksonville Jaguars. The ratings say otherwise: Jacksonville Jaguars sit 53 ELO points clear, 1479 to 1426, so the model is backing Arizona Cardinals against the ratings gap. Form leans Jacksonville Jaguars' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

On paper Jacksonville Jaguars shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Recent Form. The model still sides with Arizona Cardinals, which says Quarterback carry the most weight. The margin model has Arizona Cardinals by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 48. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Arizona Cardinals to win, not to win big.

Arizona Cardinals have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 27-24 in 2025 Week 12.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Jacoby Brissett starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with Jonathan Gannon and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Arizona Cardinals $2.14 and Jacksonville Jaguars $1.74, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Arizona Cardinals 4 · Jacksonville Jaguars 3 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 27-24 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jacoby Brissett · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Liam Coen |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $2.14 · Jacksonville Jaguars $1.74 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -2.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 2W–6L | 25% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 2W–5L | 29% |

Avg total: 45.3 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

Both sides have a similar record under Scott Novak, Arizona Cardinals 2W–6L (25%) and Jacksonville Jaguars 2W–5L (29%). Small sample (7 games for Jacksonville Jaguars).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 32.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -7.8pts | Avg Margin | -2.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W6 L · W7 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 L | 24.2 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W6 L · W7 L · W9 W · W10 L · W11 W | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Arizona Cardinals lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W12 | Arizona Cardinals | 24 – 27 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2021 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 – 31 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2017 | W12 | Arizona Cardinals | 27 – 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2013 | W11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 14 – 27 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2009 | W2 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 31 | Arizona Cardinals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·1·1) | 0/0g | 7/25g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.96 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 28% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 6/31g | 20% | — | 🏉 53' |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/8g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/20g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/17g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josiah Deguara | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Kedon Slovis | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Pharaoh Brown | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.05 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Austin Trammell | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Brenton Strange | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 37' |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Jaguars: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Washington

**Arizona Cardinals** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Bam Knight 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Michael Carter 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Wilson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: W.Nolen, G.Dortch

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1426 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1479 · ELO difference: 53 in favour of Jacksonville Jaguars

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 42 | Arizona Cardinals +11 |
| Receiving Corps | 65 | 53 | Arizona Cardinals +12 |
| Backfield | 44 | 59 | Jacksonville Jaguars +15 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 56 | 56 | Even |
| Special Teams | 61 | 58 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Arizona Cardinals predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-23 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)