# Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tennessee Titans 13 – 16 Houston Texans

_Houston Texans fight back to round up Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 3 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tennessee Titans 3% / Houston Texans 97% · Nissan Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tennessee Titans: Van Jefferson (59') · Houston Texans: Nico Collins (38' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 97% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 3% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 16.5 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Tennessee Titans 13–16 Houston Texans in NFL Week 11 at Nissan Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zero. That's the number that decided this one. Houston Texans didn't turn the ball over once all night, while Tennessee Titans coughed it up a single time, and in a three-point game that's the difference. Houston Texans got out of Nissan Stadium with a 16-13 win, and it never got comfortable at any stage.

The half-time score tells its own story. Tennessee Titans led 3-0 at the break, doing next to nothing on offence but somehow ahead on the scoreboard. Houston Texans finally found some rhythm in the third quarter: Nico Collins scored with 7:25 left to level things at 6-6, and by the end of the quarter Houston Texans had nosed in front, 10-6. Tennessee Titans had one more shot. Van Jefferson's touchdown with 1:40 remaining in the fourth pulled them to within a point at 12-13, but Houston Texans found the response they needed to push the margin back out to 16-13 by full time.

The yardage battle explains how Houston Texans stayed in control for so long. They outgained Tennessee Titans 349 to 252 for the game, out-passed them 274 to 194, and picked up 31 first downs to Tennessee Titans' 22. Cam Ward threw 24-of-37

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 13 |
| Houston Texans | 0 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 252 | Total Yards | **349** |
| 194 | Passing Yards | **274** |
| 58 | Rushing Yards | **75** |
| 22 | First Downs | **31** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -6.8 | Offensive EPA | **-4.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Houston Texans to win at 97% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 16.5 but the actual margin was 3 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 16 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Houston Texans bucked the trend, Tennessee Titans historically win 57% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.38 (edge +24.6%) — model probability 97.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 17 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Houston Texans here: 97% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Houston Texans sit 283 ELO points clear, 1550 to 1267. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Tennessee Titans.

Houston Texans own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Houston Texans by 16.5, with the two sides combining for about 41. Houston Texans to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Houston Texans have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2025 Week 11.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-8 at home, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Cam Ward starts under centre for Tennessee Titans, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Brian Callahan and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

Tennessee Titans come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Houston Texans favourites, Tennessee Titans $3.15 and Houston Texans $1.38, with the spread at Houston Texans -5.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Tennessee Titans 5 · Houston Texans 7 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 16-13 (2025) |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-8 home |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Cam Ward · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Brian Callahan · DeMeco Ryans |
| Rest | Tennessee Titans 14d · Houston Texans 7d |
| Market | Tennessee Titans $3.15 · Houston Texans $1.38 |
| Spread | Houston Texans -5.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Tennessee Titans

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | 4W–3L | 57% |
| Houston Texans | 1W–6L | 14% |

Avg total: 45.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Tennessee Titans have won 4 of 7 games (57%), significantly stronger than Houston Texans's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for Tennessee Titans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tennessee Titans | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 15.8pts | Avg Score | 28.0pts |
| 27.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.8pts |
| -11.6pts | Avg Margin | 8.2pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tennessee Titans | W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W8 L · W9 L | 15.8 |
| Houston Texans | W5 W · W7 L · W8 W · W9 L · W10 W | 28.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Tennessee Titans | 13 – 16 | Houston Texans |
| 2025 | W4 | Houston Texans | 26 – 0 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2024 | W18 | Tennessee Titans | 14 – 23 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W12 | Houston Texans | 27 – 32 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2023 | W17 | Houston Texans | 26 – 3 | Tennessee Titans |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Nissan Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 3/12g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Tyjae Spears | RB | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 4/16g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/11g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Kinsey | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Van Jefferson | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 8% | — | 🏉 59' |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 32% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 38' |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 2/3g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Davis Mills | QB | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 2/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dare Ogunbowale | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Woody Marks 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Nick Chubb 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Schultz — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyjae Spears — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: V.Jefferson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tennessee Titans 1267 · Houston Texans 1550 · ELO difference: 283 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 28 | 44 | Houston Texans +16 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 72 | Houston Texans +21 |
| Backfield | 47 | 44 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 55 | Tennessee Titans +5 |
| Secondary | 48 | 64 | Houston Texans +16 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 49 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Houston Texans |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tennessee Titans |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Tennessee Titans |

**Model Confidence: 97%** — Houston Texans predicted to win by 16 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)