# Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Pittsburgh Steelers 34 – 12 Cincinnati Bengals

_Pittsburgh Steelers steamroll Cincinnati Bengals._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 19% / Cincinnati Bengals 81% · Acrisure Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Pittsburgh Steelers: Kenny Gainwell (5'), Kyle Dugger (45'), Kenny Gainwell (57'), James Pierre (57') · Cincinnati Bengals: Tee Higgins (10' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cincinnati Bengals | 81% | Lost |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 19% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Pittsburgh Steelers 34–12 Cincinnati Bengals in NFL Week 11 at Acrisure Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Ten points to six at the break, and nothing about it suggested what was coming. Cincinnati Bengals were within a possession of Pittsburgh Steelers after two quarters, both offences trading scores early: Kenny Gainwell got the Steelers moving inside the first quarter, Tee Higgins answered for the Bengals with under six minutes left in it, and from there the scoreboard barely moved through the second quarter. A 10-9 game, effectively, heading into the changeroom.

Then the third quarter turned it into something else entirely. Pittsburgh Steelers scored with 51 seconds left in the period through Kevin Dugger to make it 19-9, and by the end of the quarter it was 20-9. The Bengals never scored again. Two more Pittsburgh touchdowns arrived inside a 12-second window in the fourth, Gainwell's second and then Julius Pierre, and a six-point game became a 34-12 rout.

Final score: Pittsburgh Steelers 34, Cincinnati Bengals 12. Twenty-two points, and it came almost entirely in the second half.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard did. Pittsburgh Steelers finished plus-18.7 in offensive expected points added, 11.8 to minus-6.9, which is about as clean a measure of who played the more efficient game as you'll find. They outgained the Bengals 354 yards to 304, and did it with two fewer turnovers, none to Cincinnati's two. Give a team the ball back twice for free and concede a near-two-to-one edge in first downs, 32 to 24, and the margin stops being a surprise.

Individually it wasn't the aerial shootout the pre-match numbers might have suggested. Mason Rudolph went 12-of-16 for 127 yards and a touchdown, tidy and mistake-free. Joe Flacco threw more, 23-of-40 for 199 yards, but paired his one touchdown with an interception. Chase Brown was the best runner on the field regardless of result, 99 yards on 18 carries for Cincinnati. But the story of the day belonged to Gainwell: 7 catches, 81 yards, 2 touchdowns, the busiest and most productive weapon on either roster.

None of this is what the numbers going in suggested. Cincinnati carried the better-rated quarterback, 62 to 49, and the stronger receiving corps, 67 to 54. Alphr's model had the Bengals winning 81% of the time and predicted a 2.1-point Pittsburgh margin at best, off ratings of 1508 to 1447. The actual margin was 22. Pittsburgh Steelers' edge in pass rush, 57 to 50, and special teams, 71 to 65, turned out to matter more than the Bengals' skill-position advantage, and turn

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 7 | 3 | 10 | 14 | 34 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 6 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| **354** | Total Yards | 304 |
| **243** | Passing Yards | 199 |
| **111** | Rushing Yards | 105 |
| **32** | First Downs | 24 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **11.8** | Offensive EPA | -6.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Pittsburgh Steelers defied the model's 81% prediction for Cincinnati Bengals, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.1 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Bill Vinovich's career average of 45. Pittsburgh Steelers's victory aligns with Bill Vinovich's historical trend, Pittsburgh Steelers have a 67% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $3.05 (edge +48.0%) — model probability 80.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Cincinnati Bengals here: 81% to see off Pittsburgh Steelers. The ratings say otherwise: Pittsburgh Steelers sit 61 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1447, so the model is backing Cincinnati Bengals against the ratings gap. Form leans Pittsburgh Steelers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Cincinnati Bengals.

On paper Pittsburgh Steelers shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Recent Form. The model still sides with Cincinnati Bengals, which says Quarterback and Rest Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 36. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Cincinnati Bengals to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Pittsburgh Steelers taking the most recent 34-12 in 2025 Week 11.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Cincinnati Bengals went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 away, averaging 24.4 points for and 28.9 against.

Aaron Rodgers starts under centre for Pittsburgh Steelers, Joe Flacco for Cincinnati Bengals, with Mike Tomlin and Zac Taylor calling the shots.

Cincinnati Bengals come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Pittsburgh Steelers favourites, Pittsburgh Steelers $1.40 and Cincinnati Bengals $3.05, with the spread at Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Pittsburgh Steelers 6 · Cincinnati Bengals 6 |
| Last meeting | Pittsburgh Steelers 34-12 (2025) |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 6-3 home |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Cincinnati Bengals 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 away |
| Cincinnati Bengals scoring | 24.4 for · 28.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Aaron Rodgers · Joe Flacco |
| Head coaches | Mike Tomlin · Zac Taylor |
| Rest | Pittsburgh Steelers 7d · Cincinnati Bengals 14d |
| Market | Pittsburgh Steelers $1.40 · Cincinnati Bengals $3.05 |
| Spread | Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Pittsburgh Steelers

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 12W–6L | 67% |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 8W–10L | 44% |

Avg total: 44.8 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Bill Vinovich officiates, Pittsburgh Steelers have won 12 of 18 games (67%), significantly stronger than Cincinnati Bengals's 8 from 18 (44%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Pittsburgh Steelers | Stat | Cincinnati Bengals |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 31.0pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 36.2pts |
| -1.2pts | Avg Margin | -5.2pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W6 W · W7 L · W8 L · W9 W · W10 L | 23.2 |
| Cincinnati Bengals | W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W9 L | 31.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Pittsburgh Steelers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 – 12 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2025 | W7 | Cincinnati Bengals | 33 – 31 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W18 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 17 – 19 | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 2024 | W13 | Cincinnati Bengals | 38 – 44 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2023 | W16 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 34 – 11 | Cincinnati Bengals |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Acrisure Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/7g | 3/28g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 12% | — | 🏉 5' 57' |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 6/8g | 7/23g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/21g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Roman Wilson | WR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/26g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/15g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mason Rudolph | QB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 5% | — | — |

**Cincinnati Bengals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Tee Higgins | WR | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 5/9g | 1/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Ja'Marr Chase | WR | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 6/7g | 1/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.08 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Chase Brown | RB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Noah Fant | TE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.20 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Andrei Iosivas | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Jones | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Joe Flacco | QB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tanner Hudson | TE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Kendall Milton | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tahj Brooks | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cincinnati Bengals** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Ja'Marr Chase 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Chase Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Tee Higgins 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Noah Fant — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Bengals: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ DK Metcalf — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Gainwell, K.Dugger, J.Pierre

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Pittsburgh Steelers 1508 · Cincinnati Bengals 1447 · ELO difference: 61 in favour of Pittsburgh Steelers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Pittsburgh Steelers | Cincinnati Bengals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 62 | Cincinnati Bengals +13 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 67 | Cincinnati Bengals +13 |
| Backfield | 47 | 52 | Cincinnati Bengals +5 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 50 | Pittsburgh Steelers +7 |
| Secondary | 56 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 71 | 65 | Pittsburgh Steelers +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Cincinnati Bengals |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Cincinnati Bengals predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)