# Philadelphia Eagles v Detroit Lions — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Philadelphia Eagles 16 – 9 Detroit Lions

_Philadelphia Eagles swoop on a gallant Detroit Lions._

Half time: 13 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 38% / Detroit Lions 62% · Lincoln Financial Field · Mon, 17 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Philadelphia Eagles: Jalen Hurts (30') · Detroit Lions: Jameson Williams (25')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Detroit Lions | 62% | Lost |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.8 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Philadelphia Eagles vs Detroit Lions Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 12:20 pm_

Philadelphia Eagles 16–9 Detroit Lions in NFL Week 11 at Lincoln Financial Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model gave Detroit the nod here, 62 percent to win, expected to edge it by 0.8 points with 47 total points on the board. Philadelphia won 16-9. Wrong side, and the total missed by 22 points. The margin call, oddly, was closer to sensible than the rest of the read: 0.8 predicted against a 7-point actual result isn't a bad guess on the gap between two teams. It's just that the model had the wrong team on top.

The shape of the game explains why. Philadelphia opened with a field goal to lead 3-0 through the first quarter, nothing flashy. Detroit levelled it at 6-6 when Jameson Williams got in, the kind of answer you'd expect from a team the model liked. But Jalen Hurts scored right back with 17 seconds left in the half, and Philadelphia went into the break up 13-6. From there the scoreboard barely moved. Detroit added three points late to finish 16-9, but the second half produced nothing beyond that, and Philadelphia never lost the lead once they took it.

Detroit actually won the yardage fight, 329 to 283, and led first downs 23-19. Jared Goff threw for 255 yards on 14 of 37 with a touchdown and an interception. Jahmyr Gibbs was the best individual performer on the field, 5 catches for 107 yards. None of it mattered as much as the turnover column, where Detroit's lone giveaway was the only one in the game. Philadelphia had zero.

That's the number that decided it. Philadelphia's offensive EPA sat at -16.5 against Detroit's -23.6, meaning even with fewer yards, Philadelphia's snaps were worth more. Saquon Barkley grinding out 83 yards on 26 carries kept the ground game moving, Philadelphia out-rushing Detroit 148 to 74, and Hurts did just enough through the air at 14 of 28 for 135 and the game's other touchdown. Efficient beats flashy when the other side is stuck field-goal range in the second half.

Pre-match, Detroit held the positional edges that were supposed to matter: backfield 73 to 58, special teams 61 to 48, secondary 55 to 51. Good on paper, and it showed in the yardage totals. It just didn't show on the scoreboard, because Philadelphia's forward push and clean ball security cancelled it out.

Form lines told a similar story before kickoff. Detroit came in averaging 29.2 points a game across their last five against Philadelphia's 22, with a healthier average margin too. Held to 9 here, well below that mark, while Philadelphia's defence did the job the raw yardage numbers don't show.

So the model's overall lean made sense on paper, better backfield, better special teams, hotter scoring form. The turnover and the red zone finishing didn't cooperate. Philadelphia took the moments that mattered and left Detroit with the volume stats and not much else.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 16 |
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 9 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 283 | Total Yards | **329** |
| 135 | Passing Yards | **255** |
| **148** | Rushing Yards | 74 |
| 19 | First Downs | **23** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **-16.5** | Offensive EPA | -23.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Philadelphia Eagles defied the model's 62% prediction for Detroit Lions, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.8 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 25 points came in 22 points lower than the predicted 47. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 25 points was 21 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. Philadelphia Eagles's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, Philadelphia Eagles have a 43% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $2.30 (edge +18.9%) — model probability 62.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 1 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Detroit Lions are the call at 62%, but Philadelphia Eagles stay live at 38%. The ratings say otherwise: Philadelphia Eagles sit 21 ELO points clear, 1681 to 1660, so the model is backing Detroit Lions against the ratings gap.

Detroit Lions own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Secondary and Recent Form. Lean Detroit Lions, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Philadelphia Eagles have won 7 of the last 11 between these two, and Philadelphia Eagles took the most recent meeting 16-9 in 2025 Week 11.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Jalen Hurts starts under centre for Philadelphia Eagles, Jared Goff for Detroit Lions, with Nick Sirianni and Dan Campbell calling the shots.

The market has Philadelphia Eagles favourites, Philadelphia Eagles $1.65 and Detroit Lions $2.30, with the spread at Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | Philadelphia Eagles 7 · Detroit Lions 4 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 16-9 (2025) |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 home |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-5 away |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jalen Hurts · Jared Goff |
| Head coaches | Nick Sirianni · Dan Campbell |
| Market | Philadelphia Eagles $1.65 · Detroit Lions $2.30 |
| Spread | Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Philadelphia Eagles

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Detroit Lions | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Philadelphia Eagles hold a 5-point edge: 3W–4L (43%) vs Detroit Lions's 3W–5L (38%). Small sample (7 games for Philadelphia Eagles).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Philadelphia Eagles | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 20.8pts | Avg Conceded | 22.4pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | 6.8pts |
| 6.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles | W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 W · W10 W | 22.0 |
| Detroit Lions | W5 W · W6 L · W7 W · W9 L · W10 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Philadelphia Eagles | 16 – 9 | Detroit Lions |
| 2022 | W1 | Detroit Lions | 35 – 38 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2021 | W8 | Detroit Lions | 6 – 44 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2019 | W3 | Philadelphia Eagles | 24 – 27 | Detroit Lions |
| 2016 | W5 | Detroit Lions | 24 – 23 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lincoln Financial Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/3g | 15/54g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 16/19g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 48% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 37/45g | 58% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/2g | 18/31g | 40% | — | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 19/41g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 3/14g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Cameron Latu | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darius Cooper | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Gipson | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | 10 in 9g | 12/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·0·2·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 74% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·0·3·1·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 4/2g | 2/1g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 39% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 25' |
| – | Brock Wright | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | 2 in 6g | 2/6g (1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Detroit Lions** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ David Montgomery — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Williams

**Philadelphia Eagles** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 48% · no TD
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Hurts

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Philadelphia Eagles 1681 · Detroit Lions 1660 · ELO difference: 21 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Philadelphia Eagles | Detroit Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 67 | 67 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 57 | Philadelphia Eagles +7 |
| Backfield | 58 | 73 | Detroit Lions +15 |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 59 | Even |
| Secondary | 51 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 48 | 61 | Detroit Lions +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Detroit Lions predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-17 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)