# New York Giants v Green Bay Packers — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Giants 20 – 27 Green Bay Packers

_Green Bay Packers survive a scare against New York Giants._

Half time: 13 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Giants 5% / Green Bay Packers 95% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Giants: Devin Singletary (5'), Devin Singletary (29'), Jameis Winston (53') · Green Bay Packers: Christian Watson (16' Tipped ⚡), Emanuel Wilson (23'), Josh Whyle (34'), Christian Watson (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 95% | Won |
| New York Giants | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.4 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Giants vs Green Bay Packers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Giants 20–27 Green Bay Packers in NFL Week 11 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two turnovers to none. That's the number that sits above everything in Green Bay Packers' 27-20 win over New York Giants at MetLife Stadium, and it's the number that explains how a team that got outgained finished up seven points clear on the scoreboard.

Because make no mistake, New York Giants won the yardage battle, 343 to 308, and actually led on first downs too, 30 to 29. On paper that's a competitive, arguably better, offensive day. But offensive efficiency told a different story: Green Bay Packers ran up 18.2 expected points added to New York Giants' 10.3, a gap of 7.9, and when you cough the ball up twice while the other side gives up nothing, that efficiency edge turns into points on the board rather than wasted drives.

The game itself was tight for a long stretch. Devin Singletary opened the scoring for New York Giants in the first quarter and they carried a 7-0 lead into the second. Green Bay Packers hit back through Christian Watson and then Emanuel Wilson to flip it to 12-7, before Singletary's second touchdown levelled it at 13-13 at the break. Nothing separated these two sides through 30 minutes.

The third quarter belonged to Green Bay Packers alone. Josh Whyle's touchdown with 11:44 left in the quarter made it 19-13, and New York Giants had no answer until Jameis Winston ran one in himself with 7:25 to go in the fourth to tie it at 19-19. That's as close as it got. Christian Watson's second touchdown, at the 4:07 mark, put Green Bay Packers back in front for good at 25-19, and New York Giants' late score only tightened the final margin to seven.

Winston had a productive night through the air, 19 of 29 for 201 yards, but the interception mattered more than the yardage. Jordan Love was less busy at 13 of 24 for 174 yards but delivered two touchdowns and, crucially, zero turnovers. Tyrone Tracy Jr. carried the New York Giants' ground game with 88 yards on 19 attempts, and Isaiah Hodgins led all receivers with 5 catches for 57 yards, but volume without the ball security to back it up only gets you so far.

The positional read going in lines up with what played out. Green Bay Packers held the quarterback edge, 60 to 39, and the backfield edge, 60 to 50, and both showed up when it counted, Love's clean night and the Packers' rushing production of 128 yards. New York Giants' one real advantage, the receiving corps at 59 to 50, showed up in Hodgins' numbers but couldn't offset the turnover count.

Form coming in had Green Bay Packers on three wins from their last five against New York Giants' one, and Green Bay Packers' average margin sat at plus-3.4 against New York Giants' minus-3.2. Alphr's model had Green Bay Packers at 1602 to New York Giants' 1359, backing them by 9.4 points at 95% probability. The actual margin came in at 7, the total finished at 47 against a predicted 44. Not a bad night's work for the model, and not a bad account of why New York Giants, for all their yardage, walked away with nothing.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 7 | 6 | 0 | 7 | 20 |
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 13 | 6 | 8 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Giants | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| **343** | Total Yards | 308 |
| **201** | Passing Yards | 180 |
| **142** | Rushing Yards | 128 |
| **30** | First Downs | 29 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 10.3 | Offensive EPA | **18.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 95% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Green Bay Packers by 9.4 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 47, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Scott Novak's career average of 45. Green Bay Packers's victory aligns with Scott Novak's historical trend, Green Bay Packers have a 71% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.23 (edge +13.2%) — model probability 94.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 9 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 95% to see off New York Giants. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Green Bay Packers sit 242 ELO points clear, 1602 to 1359. Form leans Green Bay Packers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for New York Giants.

Green Bay Packers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 9.4, with the two sides combining for about 44. Green Bay Packers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Green Bay Packers taking the most recent 27-20 in 2025 Week 11.

New York Giants went 4-13 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 25.8 against.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Jaxson Dart starts under centre for New York Giants, Jordan Love for Green Bay Packers, with Brian Daboll and Matt LaFleur calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, New York Giants $4.40 and Green Bay Packers $1.23, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -7.5 and the total at 41.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Giants 6 · Green Bay Packers 6 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 27-20 (2025) |
| New York Giants 2025 so far | 4-13 · 3-5 home |
| New York Giants scoring | 22.4 for · 25.8 against |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 4-5 away |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jaxson Dart · Jordan Love |
| Head coaches | Brian Daboll · Matt LaFleur |
| Market | New York Giants $4.40 · Green Bay Packers $1.23 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -7.5 · total 41.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | 1W–6L | 14% |
| Green Bay Packers | 5W–2L | 71% |

Avg total: 45.4 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 5 of 7 games (71%), significantly stronger than New York Giants's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for New York Giants).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Giants | Stat | Green Bay Packers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 21.8pts |
| 29.2pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -3.2pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Giants | W6 W · W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 L | 26.0 |
| Green Bay Packers | W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 L · W10 L | 21.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | New York Giants | 20 – 27 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2023 | W14 | New York Giants | 24 – 22 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2022 | W5 | Green Bay Packers | 22 – 27 | New York Giants |
| 2019 | W13 | New York Giants | 13 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2016 | W18 | Green Bay Packers | 38 – 13 | New York Giants |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Giants** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Theo Johnson | TE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Wan'Dale Robinson | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/23g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Bellinger | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/23g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Gunner Olszewski | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tyrone Tracy Jr. | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/12g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 22% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dalen Cambre | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Devin Singletary | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/18g | 18% | — | 🏉 5' 29' |
| – | Isaiah Hodgins | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 5/13g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jalin Hyatt | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jameis Winston | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 53' |

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·1·1·0·2·2·2·1·1·1) | 2/2g | 0/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.48 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.10 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' 56' |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 23' |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Josh Whyle | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | 🏉 34' |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Malik Willis | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Green Bay Packers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (7 rush · 0 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · no TD
- ⚡ Christian Watson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- Rest of the Packers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: E.Wilson, J.Whyle

**New York Giants** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Wan'Dale Robinson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Theo Johnson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyrone Tracy Jr. 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 22% · no TD
- Rest of the Giants: 13 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Singletary, J.Winston

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Giants 1359 · Green Bay Packers 1602 · ELO difference: 242 in favour of Green Bay Packers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Giants | Green Bay Packers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 39 | 60 | Green Bay Packers +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 59 | 50 | New York Giants +9 |
| Backfield | 50 | 60 | Green Bay Packers +10 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 51 | Even |
| Secondary | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Special Teams | 57 | 59 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-new-york-giants-v-green-bay-packers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-16 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)