# New England Patriots v New York Jets — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 27 – 14 New York Jets

_New England Patriots outgun New York Jets._

Half time: 14 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 98% / New York Jets 2% · Gillette Stadium · Fri, 14 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: TreVeyon Henderson (16' Tipped ⚡), TreVeyon Henderson (23' Tipped ⚡), TreVeyon Henderson (38' Tipped ⚡) · New York Jets: Justin Fields (8' Tipped ⚡), Metchie (42')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 98% | Won |
| New York Jets | 2% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.6 predicted → 13 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs New York Jets Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 14 Nov 2025, 12:15 pm_

New England Patriots 27–14 New York Jets in NFL Week 11 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England Patriots 27, New York Jets 14, and for a stretch of the first quarter it looked like the Jets might have the template right. Justin Fields ran one in with 7:01 left in the opening term and New York led 7-0 at the break in play. That was the high point of their night.

TreVeyon Henderson took over from there. He scored twice in the second quarter, at the 14:23 and 7:58 marks, and the Patriots turned a seven point deficit into a 14-7 half-time lead. Henderson wasn't done. He struck again early in the third to make it 20-7, and by the time John Metchie III got one back for the Jets with 3:17 left in the quarter, New England had already banked enough of a buffer that 21-14 heading into the fourth felt more like a formality than a contest. The Patriots added the rest of the scoring to close it out 27-14.

Henderson finishing with all three New England touchdowns tells you where this game was decided, and the yardage backs it up. New England ran up 346 total yards to New York's 256, but the split within that is the real story. Drake Maye went 25-of-34 for 281 yards and a touchdown, carving up a Jets pass rush that came in rated above New England's on paper, 56 to 45. Fields, by contrast, was held to 15-of-26 for 116 through the air, well short of his own backfield's contribution.

Because the Jets' running game was the one thing that actually worked. Fields led all rushers with 67 yards on 11 carries and a score, and New York out-rushed New England 140 yards to just 65. The Jets' backfield edge over New England's, 62 to 54 in the pre-match ratings, showed up exactly where you'd expect. Problem was, it wasn't enough to offset getting picked apart through the air, where Stefon Diggs alone hauled in 9 catches for 105 yards.

First downs summed it up neatly: 36 for New England, 20 for New York. Add a turnover the Jets couldn't afford and offensive EPA that split 10 to minus 4.9 in the Patriots' favour, and you've got a game where one side was efficient and the other was scrambling to keep the scoreboard pressure off.

New England came in on a five-game win streak, New York on a mild upswing of its own after a rough start to their last five. The gap in quarterback play, 66 rated to 44 pre-match, was always going to be the widest crack for New York to paper over, and Fields' rushing heroics couldn't do it alone.

Alphr's model had New England at 98 percent to win, favoured by 9.6 with a combined total of 42. The Patriots won by 13 and the game finished on 41 points. Close enough that there's not much to argue with here.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 0 | 14 | 7 | 6 | 27 |
| New York Jets | 7 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| **346** | Total Yards | 256 |
| **281** | Passing Yards | 116 |
| 65 | Rushing Yards | **140** |
| **36** | First Downs | 20 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **10** | Offensive EPA | -4.9 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 98% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting New England Patriots by 9.6 vs the actual margin of 13 points. Total score prediction of 42 was close to the actual 41, within 1 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The 41-point combined total was right in line with Alan Eck's career average of 45. New England Patriots's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.11 (edge +7.6%) — model probability 98.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on New England Patriots here: 98% to see off New York Jets. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: New England Patriots sit 148 ELO points clear, 1523 to 1374. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for New York Jets.

New England Patriots own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has New England Patriots by 9.6, with the two sides combining for about 42. New England Patriots to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New England Patriots have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 42-10 in 2025 Week 17.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Justin Fields for New York Jets, with Mike Vrabel and Aaron Glenn calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.11 and New York Jets $7.25, with the spread at New England Patriots -12.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New England Patriots 10 · New York Jets 2 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 42-10 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Justin Fields |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Aaron Glenn |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.11 · New York Jets $7.25 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -12.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 1W–2L | 33% |
| New York Jets | 1W–2L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alan Eck, New England Patriots 1W–2L (33%) and New York Jets 1W–2L (33%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (3 games for New England Patriots).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | New York Jets |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.0pts | Avg Score | 21.0pts |
| 18.2pts | Avg Conceded | 24.2pts |
| 9.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W | 28.0 |
| New York Jets | W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W8 W · W10 W | 21.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | New York Jets | 10 – 42 | New England Patriots |
| 2025 | W11 | New England Patriots | 27 – 14 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W8 | New England Patriots | 25 – 22 | New York Jets |
| 2024 | W3 | New York Jets | 24 – 3 | New England Patriots |
| 2023 | W18 | New England Patriots | 3 – 17 | New York Jets |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 14/37g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 4/18g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 3/9g | 9/11g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.83 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.30 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' 23' 38' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/11g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/8g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Westover | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Fields | QB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $16.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New York Jets** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Fields 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 27% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Jets: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Metchie

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q2, Q2, Q3**
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Drake Maye — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 11 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1523 · New York Jets 1374 · ELO difference: 148 in favour of New England Patriots

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | New York Jets | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 66 | 44 | New England Patriots +22 |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 48 | New England Patriots +7 |
| Backfield | 54 | 62 | New York Jets +8 |
| Pass Rush | 45 | 56 | New York Jets +11 |
| Secondary | 55 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 60 | 64 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | New England Patriots |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New York Jets |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 98%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-new-england-patriots-v-new-york-jets
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-14 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)