# Minnesota Vikings v Chicago Bears — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Minnesota Vikings 17 – 19 Chicago Bears

_Chicago Bears maul Minnesota Vikings in a tight one._

Half time: 3 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Minnesota Vikings 49% / Chicago Bears 51% · U.S. Bank Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Minnesota Vikings: Jordan Mason (48' Tipped ⚡), Jordan Addison (60') · Chicago Bears: Kyle Monangai (26' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 51% | Won |
| Minnesota Vikings | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Minnesota Vikings vs Chicago Bears Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Minnesota Vikings 17–19 Chicago Bears in NFL Week 11 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two turnovers, zero from the other side, and that's the ledger that closes out Chicago Bears 19, Minnesota Vikings 17 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Doesn't matter how you dress up the rest of the box score, that's the number that actually decided it.

Minnesota led after the first quarter, 3-0, and then didn't lead again until 16-16 with 56 seconds left. Chicago Bears scored the only touchdown of the half through Kyle Monangai with 4:57 left in the second, then added enough to go into the break up 10-3. By the end of the third it was 16-3, Vikings, and the game looked done. It wasn't. Jordan Mason punched one in with 12:38 to go, Jordan Addison did the same with under a minute left, and suddenly it was a two-point game with nothing decided. Chicago just had enough in the bank to hold on.

The efficiency gap explains why Minnesota needed that late fireworks in the first place. Offensive EPA had Chicago at -3.5 to Minnesota's -10.4, a gap of 6.9 expected points that doesn't show up as a single moment but bleeds into everything, third downs, red zone trips, the whole shape of a drive. Add in the turnovers, two lost by Minnesota, none by Chicago, and you've got a Vikings offence that kept handing back extra possessions to a team already moving the ball better. 333 yards to 265, 25 first downs to 24. None of it enormous, but stacked together it's the difference between comfortable and desperate.

J.J. McCarthy threw for 150 yards on 16 of 32 with a touchdown and two interceptions, and it's the picks that hurt more than the completion rate. Caleb Williams was tidier and had more room to work with, 16 of 32 as well but for 193 yards, and the Bears backfield strength rating of 70 against Minnesota's 49 showed up exactly where you'd expect: D'Andre Swift ran for 90 yards on 21 carries, the best number on the field by either running back. Justin Jefferson still did Justin Jefferson things, 5 catches for 61 yards, but he needed more help around him than he got.

Minnesota's pass rush actually did its job, two sacks to Chicago's none, and on paper it was rated the stronger unit coming in, 60 to 55. It just wasn't enough to offset a quarterback matchup that was never close on paper, 26 to 60, and largely wasn't close on the day either. Minnesota came in on a WLLWL run, averaging under 20 points a game, and this was at least a step up from that, 17 points against a Chicago defence that had been conceding 26 a night. Too little in the second half, enough of a rally late to make it interesting.

Alphr's model had Chicago as 51 percent favourites and picked Minnesota to lose by 1.3, which nearly nailed the actual margin of two points. The total of 41 was five points over the real number, 36, tight enough not to complain about. Chicago Bears do enough, Minnesota Vikings do enough too, just too late, and one number in the turnover column tells you exactly why the gap wasn't bigger than two points and exactly why it existed at all.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 3 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 17 |
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 10 | 6 | 3 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total Yards | **333** |
| 150 | Passing Yards | **193** |
| 115 | Rushing Yards | **140** |
| 24 | First Downs | **25** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **2** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -10.4 | Offensive EPA | **-3.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Chicago Bears to win at 51% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Minnesota Vikings by 1.3 vs the actual margin of 2 points. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 36, within 5 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 10 points below Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Chicago Bears bucked the trend, Minnesota Vikings historically win 50% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Brad Rogers's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side Chicago Bears prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $2.24 (edge +6.6%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 1 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Minnesota Vikings and Chicago Bears. The model can't split them, landing on Chicago Bears at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Minnesota Vikings sit 34 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1474, so the model is backing Chicago Bears against the ratings gap. Form leans Chicago Bears' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Minnesota Vikings.

Chicago Bears own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Minnesota Vikings have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 19-17 in 2025 Week 11.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

J.J. McCarthy starts under centre for Minnesota Vikings, Caleb Williams for Chicago Bears, with Kevin O'Connell and Ben Johnson calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, Minnesota Vikings $1.68 and Chicago Bears $2.24, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -3 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Minnesota Vikings 9 · Chicago Bears 3 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 19-17 (2025) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-4 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-4 away |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | J.J. McCarthy · Caleb Williams |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · Ben Johnson |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $1.68 · Chicago Bears $2.24 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -3 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 3W–3L | 50% |
| Chicago Bears | 1W–5L | 17% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Minnesota Vikings have won 3 of 6 games (50%), significantly stronger than Chicago Bears's 1 from 6 (17%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Minnesota Vikings).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Chicago Bears |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -6.8pts | Avg Margin | 1.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W5 W · W7 L · W8 L · W9 W · W10 L | 19.8 |
| Chicago Bears | W6 W · W7 W · W8 L · W9 W · W10 W | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 – 19 | Chicago Bears |
| 2025 | W1 | Chicago Bears | 24 – 27 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W15 | Minnesota Vikings | 30 – 12 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W12 | Chicago Bears | 27 – 30 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | W12 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 – 12 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/6g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 14/16g | 10/16g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 2 in 4g | 2/4g (1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 5/16g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 2 in 6g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 9/16g | 43% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 3/13g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 27/43g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/12g | 8/25g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 7g | 3/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 25/56g | 26% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Ham | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 2/50g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 3/9g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 26' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Roschon Johnson | RB | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Travis Homer | RB | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Rome Odunze 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyle Monangai — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Bears: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Minnesota Vikings** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Mason — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Vikings: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Addison

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1508 · Chicago Bears 1474 · ELO difference: 34 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 26 | 60 | Chicago Bears +34 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 57 | Even |
| Backfield | 49 | 70 | Chicago Bears +21 |
| Pass Rush | 60 | 55 | Minnesota Vikings +5 |
| Secondary | 48 | 59 | Chicago Bears +11 |
| Special Teams | 65 | 65 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)