# Miami Dolphins v Washington Commanders — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Miami Dolphins 16 – 13 Washington Commanders

_Miami Dolphins make a splash against a gallant Washington Commanders._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Miami Dolphins 69% / Washington Commanders 31% · Hard Rock Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 01:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Miami Dolphins: Gordon (48') · Washington Commanders: Samuel (34')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 69% | Won |
| Washington Commanders | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Miami Dolphins vs Washington Commanders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 01:30 am_

Miami Dolphins 16–13 Washington Commanders in NFL Week 11 at Hard Rock Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Washington Commanders wanted the highlight reel. Miami Dolphins wanted the scoreboard. Both sides got what they came for, right up until overtime decided it wasn't going to be that simple, and Miami escaped 16-13.

The stat sheet reads like an argument for Washington. 385 total yards to 340, 213 passing to 171, three sacks to one, and an offensive EPA of plus 4.5 against Miami's minus 1.1. On paper that's a beatdown. On the scoreboard it's a field goal in it, because Washington's one turnover cancelled out most of that yardage advantage, and cancelling out yardage is exactly what turnovers are for.

The game was even for a long stretch. Level at 3 after the first quarter, level at 6 at the break, this was always going to come down to who blinked first. Washington blinked second, not first, scoring through Deebo Samuel Sr. early in the third to go up 12-6 and then 13-6 by the end of the quarter. Miami needed an answer and got one from Ollie Gordon II with 12:38 left in the fourth, dragging it back to 12-13. Neither side moved again in regulation. Overtime went Miami's way, 3 points to nothing, and that was the game.

Washington's approach lines up with their positional profile coming in: a slightly stronger quarterback rating, 49 to 43, and a backfield disadvantage they didn't lean on, since Miami actually held a big edge there at 59 to 43. That gap showed up in the box score. De'Von Achane ran for 120 yards on 21 carries, the best number either side produced by any measure, and Miami finished with 169 rushing yards to Washington's 172, near enough a wash despite the ledger favouring the pass-first side.

Through the air, Tua Tagovailoa went 14-of-20 for 171 yards, patient and clean. Marcus Mariota threw for 213 on 20-of-30 with a touchdown, but the interception mattered more than the extra yards did. Deebo Samuel Sr. was the best player on the field, 7 catches for 74 yards and the score, but one outstanding receiver against zero giveaways for the opposition is not a formula that wins these games.

Washington arrived on a five-game losing run and it stayed a five-game losing run. There were signs of life, the yardage, the sacks, the tempo, but conceding an average of 35.8 points across that stretch tells you where the leaks usually are, and this time it was one costly turnover rather than a flood. Miami came in having won two of their last five and looking the sturdier outfit in special teams, 59 to 52, and in the backfield, and both of those edges turned up when it counted.

Alphr's model had Miami at 69 percent to win and picked the margin almost exactly, 1.9 points projected against 3 actual. The total was the miss, 44 points predicted against 29 delivered, a reminder that a game full of yardage and sacks and near-misses can still finish low-scoring when the team with the ball control gets the last word.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 16 |
| Washington Commanders | 3 | 3 | 7 | 0 | 0 | 13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 340 | Total Yards | **385** |
| 171 | Passing Yards | **213** |
| 169 | Rushing Yards | **172** |
| 27 | First Downs | **29** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -1.1 | Offensive EPA | **4.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Miami Dolphins to win at 69% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Miami Dolphins by 1.9 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 29 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 19 points below Shawn Smith's career average of 48. Miami Dolphins bucked the trend, Washington Commanders historically win 38% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $1.68 (edge +9.4%) — model probability 69.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Miami Dolphins here: 69% to see off Washington Commanders. Form leans Miami Dolphins' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Washington Commanders.

On paper Washington Commanders shade it, ahead on 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Quarterback. The model still sides with Miami Dolphins, which says Recent Form carry the most weight. The margin model has Miami Dolphins by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Miami Dolphins to win, not to win big.

Miami Dolphins have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Miami Dolphins took the most recent meeting 16-13 in 2025 Week 11.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 5-4 at home, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Washington Commanders went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 26.5 against.

Tua Tagovailoa starts under centre for Miami Dolphins, Jayden Daniels for Washington Commanders, with Mike McDaniel and Dan Quinn calling the shots.

The market has Miami Dolphins favourites, Miami Dolphins $1.68 and Washington Commanders $2.24, with the spread at Miami Dolphins -2.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Miami Dolphins 5 · Washington Commanders 3 |
| Last meeting | Miami Dolphins 16-13 (2025) |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 5-4 home |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Washington Commanders 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 away |
| Washington Commanders scoring | 20.9 for · 26.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Tua Tagovailoa · Jayden Daniels |
| Head coaches | Mike McDaniel · Dan Quinn |
| Market | Miami Dolphins $1.68 · Washington Commanders $2.24 |
| Spread | Miami Dolphins -2.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Washington Commanders

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | 1W–5L | 17% |
| Washington Commanders | 3W–5L | 38% |

Avg total: 47.6 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Smith officiates, Washington Commanders have won 3 of 8 games (38%), significantly stronger than Miami Dolphins's 1 from 6 (17%). Small sample (6 games for Miami Dolphins).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Miami Dolphins | Stat | Washington Commanders |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 17.8pts |
| 22.2pts | Avg Conceded | 35.8pts |
| -1.6pts | Avg Margin | -18.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Miami Dolphins | W6 L · W7 L · W8 W · W9 L · W10 W | 20.6 |
| Washington Commanders | W6 L · W7 L · W8 L · W9 L · W10 L | 17.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Miami Dolphins lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Miami Dolphins | 16 – 13 | Washington Commanders |
| 2023 | W13 | Washington Commanders | 15 – 45 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2019 | W6 | Miami Dolphins | 16 – 17 | Washington Commanders |
| 2015 | W1 | Washington Commanders | 10 – 17 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2011 | W10 | Miami Dolphins | 20 – 9 | Washington Commanders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Hard Rock Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·0·2) | 2/1g | 20/20g | 61% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.70 AI 64% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.20 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 11/35g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 39% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 19% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dulcich | TE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Wright | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/40g | 0% | — | — |

**Washington Commanders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Deebo Samuel Sr. | WR | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 9% ✓ Scored first | — |
| – | Jacory Croskey-Merritt | RB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Ertz | TE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Chris Rodriguez Jr. | RB | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Chris Moore | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaylin Lane | WR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy McNichols | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Marcus Mariota | QB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Chase Edmonds | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Colson Yankoff | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Jones | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Robbie Chosen | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/10g | 18% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Washington Commanders** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Deebo Samuel Sr. 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Jacory Croskey-Merritt 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Ertz — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Commanders: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

**Miami Dolphins** (3 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 64% · no TD
- ⚡ Jaylen Waddle 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · no TD
- ⚡ Malik Washington — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 19% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: O.Gordon

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Washington Commanders hold the ELO advantage (1460 vs 1449), but the market favours Miami Dolphins (@1.68). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Miami Dolphins 1449 · Washington Commanders 1460 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Washington Commanders

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Miami Dolphins | Washington Commanders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 43 | 49 | Washington Commanders +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 59 | 43 | Miami Dolphins +16 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 49 | 51 | Even |
| Special Teams | 59 | 52 | Miami Dolphins +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Washington Commanders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Miami Dolphins predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 14:30 UTC (latest tip update)