# Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Rams 21 – 19 Seattle Seahawks

_Los Angeles Rams bulldoze Seattle Seahawks in a tight one._

Half time: 14 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Rams 26% / Seattle Seahawks 74% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (7' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (14' Tipped ⚡), Colby Parkinson (46') · Seattle Seahawks: Walker (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 74% | Lost |
| Los Angeles Rams | 26% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.8 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Rams vs Seattle Seahawks Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Los Angeles Rams 21–19 Seattle Seahawks in NFL Week 11 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Four turnovers. That's what Seattle Seahawks coughed up at SoFi Stadium, and it's the only reason Los Angeles Rams walked away 21-19 winners in a game they lost everywhere else on the stat sheet.

Because everywhere else, this was Seattle's night. They ran up 414 total yards to LA's 249. They doubled the Rams up in first downs, 39 to 17. Sam Darnold threw for 279 yards on 29-of-44 passing. None of it mattered, because four of those pass attempts ended up in Rams hands, and Los Angeles turned the ball over just once all game.

The scoring arc tells you how this one actually played out. LA came out fast, Kyren Williams punching in the opener before the first quarter had even ticked past the 8-minute mark, then Davante Adams adding another with just over a minute left in the frame to put the Rams up 14-3. Seattle spent the rest of the night clawing, not sprinting: 9 by the half, 12 by the end of the third, still hunting. Colby Parkinson's touchdown early in the fourth stretched it to 20-12 and looked like it might be enough breathing room. Kenneth Walker III made sure it wasn't, scoring with 2:27 left to pull Seattle within two. Final margin: 21-19. Never more than a converted score in it down the stretch.

The efficiency numbers explain why LA didn't need the yardage to win it. Offensive EPA had the Rams at negative 3.3 and Seattle at negative 15.8, a gap of 12.5 points in LA's favour snap for snap. Yards are nice. Points per snap is the actual currency, and Seattle kept giving theirs away in the worst possible form.

Individually, Matthew Stafford didn't need to do much: 15-of-28 for 130 yards and 2 touchdowns, efficient rather than explosive. Kyren Williams was the best player on the field by the raw numbers, 91 yards on just 12 carries and a score, LA's backfield edge (69 to 51 pre-match) showing up exactly where you'd expect. Darnold's counterpart line, 279 yards and 4 picks, is the story of Seattle's night in one row: plenty of ball movement, none of it worth anything on the board. Jaxon Smith-Njigba caught 9 for 105 and had nobody to hand the credit to.

Seattle's positional edges going in, secondary at 67 to 58 and special teams at 70 to 59, never got the chance to matter. You can't lean on a better secondary when your own quarterback is handing possessions back four times.

Alphr's model had Seattle as 74% favourites here, with the Rams given the ELO edge, 1645 to 1632, and pegged to win by 1.8 on a projected 47-point total. The final line came in Rams by 2. Sharp on the margin, badly wrong on the winner, and a reminder that turnovers don't show up in a ratings file until they've already happened. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 21 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 3 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 249 | Total Yards | **414** |
| 130 | Passing Yards | **279** |
| 119 | Rushing Yards | **135** |
| 17 | First Downs | **39** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 4 |
| 0 | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **-3.3** | Offensive EPA | -15.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Los Angeles Rams defied the model's 74% prediction for Seattle Seahawks, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Los Angeles Rams by 1.8 vs the actual margin of 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 49.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 6 points below John Hussey's career average of 46. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with John Hussey's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 60% win rate under this referee. Los Angeles Rams's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $2.45 (edge +33.1%) — model probability 73.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 2 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 74% to see off Los Angeles Rams.

On paper Los Angeles Rams shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The model still sides with Seattle Seahawks, which says Pass Rush and Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 1.8, with the two sides combining for about 47. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Seattle Seahawks to win, not to win big.

Los Angeles Rams have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 the Conference Championship.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-1 at home, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 away, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Matthew Stafford starts under centre for Los Angeles Rams, Sam Darnold for Seattle Seahawks, with Sean McVay and Mike Macdonald calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Los Angeles Rams $1.57 and Seattle Seahawks $2.45, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -3 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Rams 7 · Seattle Seahawks 5 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 31-27 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-1 home |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 away |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Matthew Stafford · Sam Darnold |
| Head coaches | Sean McVay · Mike Macdonald |
| Market | Los Angeles Rams $1.57 · Seattle Seahawks $2.45 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -3 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 9W–6L | 60% |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5W–6L | 45% |

Avg total: 46.0 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 9 of 15 games (60%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 5 from 11 (45%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Rams | Stat | Seattle Seahawks |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 30.2pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.0pts |
| 15.8pts | Avg Margin | 11.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W9 W · W10 W | 30.2 |
| Seattle Seahawks | W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W9 W · W10 W | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CONF | Seattle Seahawks | 31 – 27 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W16 | Seattle Seahawks | 38 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W11 | Los Angeles Rams | 21 – 19 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W18 | Los Angeles Rams | 25 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·0·3·2·1) | 4/7g | 4/8g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.94 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·2) | 2/3g | 21/23g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 1/3g | 9/17g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.88 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/16g | 8/39g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/12g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/15g | 14% | — | 🏉 46' |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/36g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 0% | — | — |

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0·1) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/3g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 40% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 27/36g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Nick Kallerup | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 40% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 12 TDs across the team's last 5

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 50% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Parkinson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Rams 1645 · Seattle Seahawks 1632 · ELO difference: 13 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Rams | Seattle Seahawks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 78 | 67 | Los Angeles Rams +11 |
| Receiving Corps | 66 | 60 | Los Angeles Rams +6 |
| Backfield | 69 | 51 | Los Angeles Rams +18 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 62 | Seattle Seahawks +5 |
| Secondary | 58 | 67 | Seattle Seahawks +9 |
| Special Teams | 59 | 70 | Seattle Seahawks +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)