# Las Vegas Raiders v Dallas Cowboys — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Las Vegas Raiders 16 – 33 Dallas Cowboys

_Dallas Cowboys wrangle Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 9 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 14% / Dallas Cowboys 86% · Allegiant Stadium · Tue, 18 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Las Vegas Raiders: Tre Tucker (47') · Dallas Cowboys: CeeDee Lamb (16' Tipped ⚡), Jake Ferguson (25' Tipped ⚡), George Pickens (29' Tipped ⚡), Ryan Flournoy (39')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dallas Cowboys | 86% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.4 predicted → 17 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Las Vegas Raiders vs Dallas Cowboys Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Nov 2025, 12:15 pm_

Las Vegas Raiders 16–33 Dallas Cowboys in NFL Week 11 at Allegiant Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen and a half. That's the gap in offensive EPA between these two sides, Dallas Cowboys at plus 2.1 a play, Las Vegas Raiders at minus 12.4, and that number alone explains a 33-16 scoreline at Allegiant Stadium. Every time Dallas had the ball they were doing something with it. Every time Las Vegas had it, they weren't.

It didn't start that way. The Raiders led 6-3 after the first quarter, so this wasn't one-way traffic from the opening snap. Dallas turned it in the second term though, and turned it fast. CeeDee Lamb got the first touchdown with 14:55 left in the half, Jake Ferguson followed at 5:19, then George Pickens struck with 1:20 to go, and a 6-3 game became 9-24 by the break. Three touchdowns inside fourteen minutes of game clock will do that. Ryan Flournoy added a fourth in the third quarter to make it 9-30, and Tre Tucker's touchdown for Las Vegas early in the fourth, at the 13:27 mark, never looked like changing the outcome.

The yardage numbers back up what the clock showed. Dallas finished with 382 total yards to 265, and 39 first downs to 28. The bigger tell is how they got there: 114 rushing yards for the Cowboys against just 27 for the Raiders. That gap lines up with the pre-match ratings, where Dallas held a 55-44 edge in the backfield. Add four sacks to Las Vegas's one, and Dallas were controlling the line of scrimmage most of the day while Geno Smith was under pressure far more often than Dak Prescott.

Through the air, Prescott was close to flawless with his chances: 25 of 33 for 268 yards and four touchdowns, no interceptions. Smith had to work harder for less, 27 of 42 for 238 yards, one touchdown and a pick. Pickens was the standout receiver on the day, nine catches for 144 yards and a score, which tracks with Dallas holding a 64-51 edge in receiving corps strength coming in. Javonte Williams led all rushers with 93 yards on 22 carries, the sort of grinding shift that eats clock rather than blowing a game open in one hit.

None of it should surprise anyone who'd looked at the numbers beforehand. Dallas came in rated stronger at quarterback, 65 to 35, and at special teams, 67 to 46, and they had three extra rest days, 14 to 11. Las Vegas arrived off a rough stretch, one win in five, averaging 12.4 points a game and conceding 24.2. Dallas were 2-3 in their last five but scoring at just under 30 a game. Form and roster strength both pointed the same direction, and the match played out accordingly.

Alphr's model had Dallas at 86 per cent to win, expected them by 5.4 points on a combined total of 51. The final margin, 17 points, ran well past that projected gap. The total was closer to the mark: 49 points against a predicted 51, within two. Right team, right shape of contest, just a wider gap between the two sides than the model allowed for.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 16 |
| Dallas Cowboys | 3 | 21 | 7 | 2 | 33 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 265 | Total Yards | **382** |
| 238 | Passing Yards | **268** |
| 27 | Rushing Yards | **114** |
| 28 | First Downs | **39** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **4** |
| -12.4 | Offensive EPA | **2.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dallas Cowboys to win at 86% probability. The predicted margin of 5.4 was reasonable against the actual 17-point result. Total score prediction of 51 was close to the actual 49, within 2 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The combined score of 49 points was 4 points above Brad Allen's career average of 45. Dallas Cowboys bucked the trend, Las Vegas Raiders historically win 75% of games under Brad Allen, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Brad Allen's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Dallas Cowboys prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.51 (edge +19.5%) — model probability 85.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 5 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dallas Cowboys here: 86% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dallas Cowboys sit 79 ELO points clear, 1447 to 1367. Form leans Dallas Cowboys' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Dallas Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Dallas Cowboys by 5.4, with the two sides combining for about 51. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Dallas Cowboys to win, not to win big.

Dallas Cowboys have won 4 of the last 7 between these two, and Dallas Cowboys took the most recent meeting 33-16 in 2025 Week 11.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Dallas Cowboys went 7-9-1 in 2025 so far, 3-6 away, averaging 27.7 points for and 30.1 against.

Geno Smith starts under centre for Las Vegas Raiders, Dak Prescott for Dallas Cowboys, with Pete Carroll and Brian Schottenheimer calling the shots.

Dallas Cowboys come in fresher, 14 days between games against 11.

The market has Dallas Cowboys favourites, Las Vegas Raiders $2.64 and Dallas Cowboys $1.51, with the spread at Dallas Cowboys -3.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Las Vegas Raiders 3 · Dallas Cowboys 4 |
| Last meeting | Dallas Cowboys 33-16 (2025) |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Dallas Cowboys 2025 so far | 7-9-1 · 3-6 away |
| Dallas Cowboys scoring | 27.7 for · 30.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Geno Smith · Dak Prescott |
| Head coaches | Pete Carroll · Brian Schottenheimer |
| Rest | Las Vegas Raiders 11d · Dallas Cowboys 14d |
| Market | Las Vegas Raiders $2.64 · Dallas Cowboys $1.51 |
| Spread | Dallas Cowboys -3.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Las Vegas Raiders

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3W–1L | 75% |
| Dallas Cowboys | 4W–7L | 36% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Las Vegas Raiders have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Dallas Cowboys's 4 from 11 (36%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Las Vegas Raiders | Stat | Dallas Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 29.8pts |
| 24.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.0pts |
| -11.8pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 11.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | W5 L · W6 W · W7 L · W9 L · W10 L | 12.4 |
| Dallas Cowboys | W5 W · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W9 L | 29.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dallas Cowboys lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 16 – 33 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2021 | W12 | Dallas Cowboys | 33 – 36 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2017 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17 – 20 | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2013 | W13 | Dallas Cowboys | 31 – 24 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2009 | W12 | Dallas Cowboys | 24 – 7 | Las Vegas Raiders |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 7 in 9g | 7/9g (1·0·0·3·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/20g | 18% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 4/11g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Carter Runyon | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Ian Thomas | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |

**Dallas Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Javonte Williams | RB | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·2·1·0·1·2·0·1·2·0) | 2/7g | 2/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.74 AI 54% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Pickens | WR | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jake Ferguson | TE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 25' |
| – | CeeDee Lamb | WR | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| – | Dak Prescott | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Luepke | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Tolbert | WR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| – | KaVontae Turpin | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Flournoy | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Brevyn Spann-Ford | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malik Davis | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Dallas Cowboys** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Javonte Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 54% · no TD
- ⚡ George Pickens 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ CeeDee Lamb — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jake Ferguson — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Cowboys: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Flournoy

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 1 TD across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Tucker

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Las Vegas Raiders 1367 · Dallas Cowboys 1447 · ELO difference: 79 in favour of Dallas Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Las Vegas Raiders | Dallas Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 35 | 65 | Dallas Cowboys +30 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 64 | Dallas Cowboys +13 |
| Backfield | 44 | 55 | Dallas Cowboys +11 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 60 | Dallas Cowboys +6 |
| Secondary | 53 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 46 | 67 | Dallas Cowboys +21 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Dallas Cowboys |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Dallas Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 86%** — Dallas Cowboys predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-18 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)