# Jacksonville Jaguars v Los Angeles Chargers — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Jacksonville Jaguars 35 – 6 Los Angeles Chargers

_Jacksonville Jaguars run riot over Los Angeles Chargers._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 16% / Los Angeles Chargers 84% · TIAA Bank Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Jacksonville Jaguars: Bhayshul Tuten (15'), Travis Etienne (27' Tipped ⚡), Trevor Lawrence (38'), Tim Patrick (49'), Travis Etienne (49' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Chargers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 84% | Lost |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 16% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.8 predicted → 29 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Jacksonville Jaguars vs Los Angeles Chargers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Jacksonville Jaguars 35–6 Los Angeles Chargers in NFL Week 11 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-eight and a half. That's the gap in offensive EPA, Jacksonville at plus-5.5, the Chargers at minus-23, and it tells you everything about how Jacksonville Jaguars ended up flogging Los Angeles Chargers 35-6 at TIAA Bank Stadium. Every snap the Jaguars ran did more damage than the one before it. Every Chargers snap did less.

The board didn't open in a hurry. Bhayshul Tuten got the Jaguars up 6-3 with four seconds left in the first quarter, and by half-time it was only 14-6, a game the Chargers could still tell themselves they were in. Travis Etienne's first major, with 3:42 left in the second, made it a two-score lead at the break. Then Jacksonville just kept adding to it. Trevor Lawrence went in himself early in the third to make it 21-6, and the Chargers never scored again. Two more in the space of thirty-two seconds in the fourth, Tim Patrick then Etienne's second, turned a competitive scoreline into a rout.

The yardage says it plainly enough: 345 to 160. Jacksonville ran for 192 of their 345, more than half their output, and the Chargers could only scrape together 42 on the ground all day. First downs went 38 to 11. When one side is moving the sticks that often and the other can barely put three drives together, the final margin stops being a surprise and starts being arithmetic.

Trevor Lawrence wasn't asked to do much and did it cleanly enough, 14 from 22 for 153 yards, a touchdown and a pick. Bhayshul Tuten did the heavy lifting, 74 yards on 15 carries and a score, and between him and Etienne's two, the Jaguars had the ground game the Chargers simply didn't. Justin Herbert threw for 81 yards on 10 from 18 with a pick of his own, and Jakobi Meyers was the lone bright spot going the other way, five catches for 64 yards, which is a fine day's work on a side that managed nothing else.

Jacksonville's pass rush got home three times, the Chargers zero, and that discrepancy matters more than it looks on paper. A defence that can't lay a glove on the quarterback is a defence that lets the other side play at its own pace, and Jacksonville played at whatever pace it liked.

This one should have gone the other way on paper. The Chargers came in rated stronger at quarterback, 59 to 42, stronger at receiving corps by a wide margin, 73 to 43, and stronger on special teams too. They'd won four of their last five, averaging 28.4 points a game, against a Jacksonville side that had won just two of five and was leaking almost 30 a game. Alphr's model gave the Chargers an 84 percent chance and pencilled in a win by 3.8. Instead Jacksonville won by 29. The margin call missed about as badly as a margin call can miss. The total, though, held up fine: 38 predicted, 41 delivered, within four points.

Wins and misses, all of it. The scoreboard side of the model nailed the shape of the game even while the winner side got flipped on its head, and that's the sort of result that's worth remembering next time the rat

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 7 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 35 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| **345** | Total Yards | 160 |
| **153** | Passing Yards | 118 |
| **192** | Rushing Yards | 42 |
| **38** | First Downs | 11 |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **5.5** | Offensive EPA | -23 |

**Model Report Card**

Jacksonville Jaguars defied the model's 84% prediction for Los Angeles Chargers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.8 but the actual margin was 29 points. Total score prediction of 38 was close to the actual 41, within 4 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Craig Wrolstad officiated this match (194 career games). The combined score of 41 points was 5 points below Craig Wrolstad's career average of 46. Jacksonville Jaguars's victory aligns with Craig Wrolstad's historical trend, Jacksonville Jaguars have a 75% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.65 (edge +23.1%) — model probability 83.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 4 · Predicted total: 38

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Los Angeles Chargers here: 84% to see off Jacksonville Jaguars. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Chargers sit 127 ELO points clear, 1564 to 1437. Form leans Los Angeles Chargers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Jacksonville Jaguars.

Los Angeles Chargers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 3.8, with the two sides combining for about 38. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Los Angeles Chargers to win, not to win big.

Los Angeles Chargers have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Jacksonville Jaguars took the most recent meeting 35-6 in 2025 Week 11.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Trevor Lawrence starts under centre for Jacksonville Jaguars, Justin Herbert for Los Angeles Chargers, with Liam Coen and Jim Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Jacksonville Jaguars $2.30 and Los Angeles Chargers $1.65, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -3 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Jacksonville Jaguars 4 · Los Angeles Chargers 8 |
| Last meeting | Jacksonville Jaguars 35-6 (2025) |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 7-2 home |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 5-3 away |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Quarterbacks | Trevor Lawrence · Justin Herbert |
| Head coaches | Liam Coen · Jim Harbaugh |
| Market | Jacksonville Jaguars $2.30 · Los Angeles Chargers $1.65 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -3 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Craig Wrolstad |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Jacksonville Jaguars

**Craig Wrolstad** — 194 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Craig Wrolstad | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 6W–2L | 75% |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 5W–6L | 45% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Craig Wrolstad officiates, Jacksonville Jaguars have won 6 of 8 games (75%), significantly stronger than Los Angeles Chargers's 5 from 11 (45%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Jacksonville Jaguars | Stat | Los Angeles Chargers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Conceded | 21.0pts |
| -7.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W9 W · W10 L | 21.8 |
| Los Angeles Chargers | W6 W · W7 L · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Jacksonville Jaguars lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 35 – 6 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2022 | WC | Jacksonville Jaguars | 31 – 30 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2022 | W3 | Los Angeles Chargers | 10 – 38 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2020 | W7 | Los Angeles Chargers | 39 – 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2019 | W14 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 – 45 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at TIAA Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·2) | 0/0g | 4/13g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 10/27g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.18 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' 49' |
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/2g | 8/32g | 20% | — | 🏉 38' |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 3 in 9g | 3/9g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 33% | — | 🏉 15' |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tim Patrick | WR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 2/5g | 18% | — | 🏉 49' |
| – | Austin Trammell | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 8g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Quintin Morris | TE | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Amar Johnson | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Trayveon Williams | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trey Lance | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Keenan Allen — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Chargers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Jaguars: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Tuten, T.Lawrence, T.Patrick

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Jacksonville Jaguars 1437 · Los Angeles Chargers 1564 · ELO difference: 127 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Jacksonville Jaguars | Los Angeles Chargers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 42 | 59 | Los Angeles Chargers +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 43 | 73 | Los Angeles Chargers +30 |
| Backfield | 52 | 57 | Los Angeles Chargers +5 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 53 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 71 | 79 | Los Angeles Chargers +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 84%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 38 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)