# Denver Broncos v Kansas City Chiefs — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 22 – 19 Kansas City Chiefs

_Denver Broncos survive a scare against Kansas City Chiefs._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 66% / Kansas City Chiefs 34% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 17 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Jaleel McLaughlin (41') · Kansas City Chiefs: Kareem Hunt (45' Tipped ⚡), Travis Kelce (50' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 66% | Won |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Kansas City Chiefs Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 08:25 am_

Denver Broncos 22–19 Kansas City Chiefs in NFL Week 11 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos beat Kansas City Chiefs 22-19 at Empower Field at Mile High. Three points, register that as tight. But dig into the efficiency numbers and the picture gets murkier: Kansas City actually out-produced Denver on offensive EPA, 2.8 to 1.4, and racked up more first downs, 29 to 27. By the numbers that usually matter most to analysts, this was a game Kansas City should have won. It didn't, and the turnover column tells you why.

The Chiefs coughed up one turnover to Denver's zero, and in a game decided by three points, that's the difference. Denver's pass rush did its bit too, getting home three times to Kansas City's two, just enough disruption to keep Patrick Mahomes off his rhythm at the moments it counted.

It was a slow burn early. Denver led 6-3 after the first quarter, then the sides traded nothing until half-time arrived locked at 6-6. Not much to separate two teams that, on paper, weren't supposed to be this close. Kansas City came in rated stronger at quarterback (78 to 57), in the receiving corps (66 to 50) and in the backfield (61 to 46). Denver's edge was up front on the pass rush (61 to 52) and in the secondary (57 to 50). Those were the matchups that decided it.

The third quarter is where the game actually moved. Jaleel McLaughlin scored Denver's only touchdown of the night with 4:11 left in the term, making it 12-6. Kansas City hit back almost immediately, Kareem Hunt punching one in with 57 seconds left in the quarter to make it 13-12. The term ended locked again, 13-13, a genuine arm wrestle.

Kansas City then grabbed the lead early in the fourth. Travis Kelce scored with 10:04 to go, putting the Chiefs up 19-16 in what was, on the numbers, their best spell of the night. From there Denver had to find seven points without another touchdown of their own on the sheet, and closed it out 22-19. However that final stretch played out, the scoreboard did the talking.

Individually, Bo Nix was efficient without being spectacular, going 24-of-37 for 295 yards. Mahomes threw for more attempts and a similar chunk of yards, 29-of-45 for 276, with a touchdown and an interception, that turnover the one that mattered most. Kareem Hunt led all rushers with 59 yards on 13 carries and a touchdown, while Kelce was the busiest man on the field: 9 catches for 91 yards and the score that briefly put Kansas City in front.

Total yards favoured Denver, 354 to 338, but rushing yards actually went the other way, Kansas City's 62 edging Denver's 59. It's a game that supports the idea that yardage and efficiency don't always win you the scoreboard.

Alphr's model had this one close to right. Denver were given a 66% chance to win, with a projected margin of 0.7 points against a combined total of 48. The actual margin was 3, the actual total 41. Kansas City arrived with the better recent form on paper, an average score of 27.6 against Denver's 23.6, but it was Denver's discipline with the football, not their raw output, that got the job done at altitude.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 6 | 0 | 7 | 9 | 22 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 3 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 19 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| **354** | Total Yards | 338 |
| **295** | Passing Yards | 276 |
| 59 | Rushing Yards | **62** |
| 27 | First Downs | **29** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| 1.4 | Offensive EPA | **2.8** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 66% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 0.7 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adrian Hill officiated this match (112 career games). The 41-point combined total was right in line with Adrian Hill's career average of 45. Denver Broncos bucked the trend, Kansas City Chiefs historically win 100% of games under Adrian Hill, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $2.80 (edge +30.7%) — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 1 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 66% to see off Kansas City Chiefs. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Kansas City Chiefs.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Denver Broncos to win, not to win big.

Kansas City Chiefs have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 20-13 in 2025 Week 17.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Kansas City Chiefs went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 21.3 points for and 19.3 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Patrick Mahomes for Kansas City Chiefs, with Sean Payton and Andy Reid calling the shots.

Kansas City Chiefs come in fresher, 14 days between games against 10.

The market has Kansas City Chiefs favourites, Denver Broncos $2.80 and Kansas City Chiefs $1.46, with the spread at Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 4 · Kansas City Chiefs 8 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 20-13 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Kansas City Chiefs 2025 so far | 6-11 · 1-7 away |
| Kansas City Chiefs scoring | 21.3 for · 19.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Patrick Mahomes |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Andy Reid |
| Rest | Denver Broncos 10d · Kansas City Chiefs 14d |
| Market | Denver Broncos $2.80 · Kansas City Chiefs $1.46 |
| Spread | Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Adrian Hill |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Kansas City Chiefs

**Adrian Hill** — 112 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Adrian Hill | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 4W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 44.5 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Neutral

When Adrian Hill officiates, Kansas City Chiefs have won 4 of 4 games (100%), significantly stronger than Denver Broncos's 4 from 10 (40%). Small sample (4 games for Kansas City Chiefs).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Kansas City Chiefs |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.6pts | Avg Score | 27.6pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Conceded | 16.6pts |
| 5.8pts | Avg Margin | 11.0pts |
| 10.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W | 23.6 |
| Kansas City Chiefs | W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 L | 27.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W17 | Kansas City Chiefs | 13 – 20 | Denver Broncos |
| 2025 | W11 | Denver Broncos | 22 – 19 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2024 | W18 | Denver Broncos | 38 – 0 | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2024 | W10 | Kansas City Chiefs | 16 – 14 | Denver Broncos |
| 2023 | W8 | Denver Broncos | 24 – 9 | Kansas City Chiefs |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1·0) | 0/0g | 5/5g | 40% | — | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 6/13g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 16/44g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/13g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/20g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/18g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/17g | 13% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |

**Kansas City Chiefs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kareem Hunt | RB | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·1) | 3/6g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.25 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| – | Marquise Brown | WR | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Mahomes | QB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/14g | 0/5g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rashee Rice | WR | 4 in 3g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 49% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Travis Kelce | TE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 7/16g | 1/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Tyquan Thornton | WR | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| – | JuJu Smith-Schuster | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 1/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Worthy | WR | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brashard Smith | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Mitchell | RB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Nikko Remigio | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Noah Gray | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Robert Tonyan | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Kansas City Chiefs** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Kareem Hunt 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Rashee Rice 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 4 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Xavier Worthy — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Travis Kelce — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Chiefs: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Troy Franklin 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.McLaughlin

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1629 · Kansas City Chiefs 1647 · ELO difference: 17 in favour of Kansas City Chiefs

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Kansas City Chiefs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 57 | 78 | Kansas City Chiefs +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 66 | Kansas City Chiefs +16 |
| Backfield | 46 | 61 | Kansas City Chiefs +15 |
| Pass Rush | 61 | 52 | Denver Broncos +9 |
| Secondary | 57 | 50 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Special Teams | 51 | 55 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Kansas City Chiefs |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)