# Cleveland Browns v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cleveland Browns 16 – 23 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens hit back to pick apart Cleveland Browns._

Half time: 16 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cleveland Browns 14% / Baltimore Ravens 86% · FirstEnergy Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Cleveland Browns: Devin Bush (23') · Baltimore Ravens: Derrick Henry (26' Tipped ⚡), Mark Andrews (58' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 86% | Won |
| Cleveland Browns | 14% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.8 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cleveland Browns vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 08:25 am_

Cleveland Browns 16–23 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 11 at FirstEnergy Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Baltimore Ravens as 9.8-point favourites, giving them an 86% chance of winning, with a combined total of 39. The final was Ravens 23, Browns 16: a 7-point margin. So the model's shape was right, the total nailed to the point, the margin close enough to call sharp. What the numbers didn't quite prepare you for was how the game actually played out to get there, because Cleveland led for most of the night before the class in Baltimore's roster took over late.

The first quarter was a stalemate, 3-3. Then Cleveland found something in the second. D.Bush scored with 7:53 left in the half to make it 12-3, the kind of lead nobody had pencilled in for a team rated 38 at quarterback against Baltimore's 64. Derrick Henry got one back for the Ravens at the 4:22 mark, 13-9, but Cleveland still went to the sheds ahead, 16-10. On the pre-match numbers, that scoreline had no business existing.

The third quarter changed nothing. No points either way, 16-10 stayed on the board through to the last change of ends. That's where the model's read started to reassert itself. Baltimore had been building yardage without cashing it in, and with 2:39 left in the fourth, Mark Andrews got the touchdown that flipped the game, 22-16 after the conversion. Cleveland had no answer left and the Ravens closed it out 23-16.

The stats explain why Baltimore was always going to find a way through eventually. They outgained Cleveland 377 yards to 221, with 193

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 3 | 13 | 0 | 0 | 16 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 7 | 0 | 13 | 23 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 221 | Total Yards | **377** |
| 115 | Passing Yards | **193** |
| 106 | Rushing Yards | **184** |
| 13 | First Downs | **26** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -22.1 | Offensive EPA | **-5.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 86% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Baltimore Ravens by 9.8 vs the actual margin of 7 points. Total score prediction of 39 was close to the actual 39, within 1 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 37.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The combined score of 39 points was 7 points below Land Clark's career average of 46. Baltimore Ravens bucked the trend, Cleveland Browns historically win 50% of games under Land Clark, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.23 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 86.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 10 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 86% to see off Cleveland Browns. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 218 ELO points clear, 1580 to 1363. Form leans Baltimore Ravens' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Cleveland Browns.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 9.8, with the two sides combining for about 39. Baltimore Ravens to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Baltimore Ravens have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 23-16 in 2025 Week 11.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 3-6 at home, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

Dillon Gabriel starts under centre for Cleveland Browns, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Kevin Stefanski and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Cleveland Browns $4.40 and Baltimore Ravens $1.23, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -7.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Cleveland Browns 4 · Baltimore Ravens 8 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 23-16 (2025) |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 3-6 home |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Dillon Gabriel · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Kevin Stefanski · John Harbaugh |
| Market | Cleveland Browns $4.40 · Baltimore Ravens $1.23 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -7.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cleveland Browns

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 2W–2L | 50% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3W–4L | 43% |

Avg total: 45.6 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

Cleveland Browns hold a 7-point edge: 2W–2L (50%) vs Baltimore Ravens's 3W–4L (43%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (4 games for Cleveland Browns).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cleveland Browns | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 18.0pts | Avg Score | 19.6pts |
| 21.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts |
| -3.8pts | Avg Margin | -0.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W10 L | 18.0 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W5 L · W6 L · W8 W · W9 W · W10 W | 19.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Cleveland Browns | 16 – 23 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2025 | W2 | Baltimore Ravens | 41 – 17 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W18 | Baltimore Ravens | 35 – 10 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2024 | W8 | Cleveland Browns | 29 – 24 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2023 | W10 | Baltimore Ravens | 31 – 33 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at FirstEnergy Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/3g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.07 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/13g | 13/53g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.90 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 5g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 4/14g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/12g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Dillon Gabriel | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Bond | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/24g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Shedeur Sanders | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·2·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 5/8g | 3/4g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.60 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·1) | 11/15g | 6/7g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 26% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 58' |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 2/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/14g | 4/6g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 25% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Rasheen Ali | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 37% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Zay Flowers 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Mark Andrews 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Lamar Jackson — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 25% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Cleveland Browns** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ David Njoku — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Bush

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cleveland Browns 1363 · Baltimore Ravens 1580 · ELO difference: 218 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Cleveland Browns | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 38 | 64 | Baltimore Ravens +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 51 | Even |
| Backfield | 48 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 53 | Even |
| Special Teams | 52 | 60 | Baltimore Ravens +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 86%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)