# Buffalo Bills v Tampa Bay Buccaneers — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Buffalo Bills 44 – 32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers

_Buffalo Bills stampede past Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 21 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Buffalo Bills 76% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24% · New Era Field · Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (11' Tipped ⚡), Tyrell Shavers (21'), Tez Johnson (30' Tipped ⚡), James Cook (42' Tipped ⚡), Josh Allen (51' Tipped ⚡), Josh Allen (58' Tipped ⚡) · Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Baker Mayfield (18'), Sean Tucker (25'), Sean Tucker (38'), Sean Tucker (47')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 76% | Won |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 24% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.8 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Buffalo Bills vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Buffalo Bills 44–32 Tampa Bay Buccaneers in NFL Week 11 at New Era Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Buffalo won it 44-32, but for the better part of three quarters this game hung on whoever had the ball last. Tampa Bay led three separate times, and the last of those changes came with 13:45 to go in the fourth, when Sean Tucker's third touchdown put the Buccaneers up 32-31. Buffalo needed less than five minutes to answer. Josh Allen's second touchdown of the night made it 37-32, and when he added a third with 2:42 left, the margin finally became safe at 44-32.

Get to that point and you realise how tight it actually was. Buffalo led 7-3 after the first quarter, then spent the second quarter trading the lead three times before going to halftime up just 21-20. It was that sort of night: nobody built a cushion until the very end.

The third quarter kept the pattern going. Sean Tucker's second touchdown put Tampa Bay ahead 26-21 early, before James Cook's score with 3:53 left in the quarter put Buffalo back in front, 30-26, and that's how the third quarter closed out, 31-26. Tucker's third touchdown to open the fourth briefly gave Tampa Bay the lead again at 32-31, before Allen took over for good.

The stat sheet explains why Buffalo eventually got clear. Offensive EPA had them at 13.1 against Tampa Bay's 3.7, a gap of 9.4 that says the home side were doing more with each snap even during the stretches they trailed on the scoreboard. Total yards went 414 to 375 Buffalo's way, and it came almost entirely through the air. Allen threw for 317 yards on 19 of 30 with three touchdowns and two picks. Tampa Bay's output ran the other way: 202 rushing yards, 49% of their total offence, with Baker Mayfield managing just 173 yards through the air on 16 of 28, one touchdown and one interception.

Allen's three scores did the heavy lifting for Buffalo, but Tyrell Shavers was the standout target on the night, four catches for 90 yards and a touchdown of his own, with

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 14 | 10 | 13 | 44 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 3 | 17 | 6 | 6 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| **414** | Total Yards | 375 |
| **317** | Passing Yards | 173 |
| 97 | Rushing Yards | **202** |
| **30** | First Downs | 25 |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **13.1** | Offensive EPA | 3.7 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Buffalo Bills to win at 76% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Buffalo Bills by 10.8 vs the actual margin of 12 points. The game's 76 points came in 25 points higher than the predicted 51. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 76 points was 27 points above Alex Moore's career average of 49. Buffalo Bills's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.9%) — model probability 75.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 11 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Buffalo Bills here: 76% to see off Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Buffalo Bills sit 55 ELO points clear, 1610 to 1556. Form leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Buffalo Bills.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Buffalo Bills by 10.8, with the two sides combining for about 51. Buffalo Bills to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 4 wins each from the last 8 meetings, Buffalo Bills taking the most recent 44-32 in 2025 Week 11.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Josh Allen starts under centre for Buffalo Bills, Baker Mayfield for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, with Sean McDermott and Todd Bowles calling the shots.

The market has Buffalo Bills favourites, Buffalo Bills $1.35 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.30, with the spread at Buffalo Bills -6 and the total at 46.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Buffalo Bills 4 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4 |
| Last meeting | Buffalo Bills 44-32 (2025) |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 home |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Quarterbacks | Josh Allen · Baker Mayfield |
| Head coaches | Sean McDermott · Todd Bowles |
| Market | Buffalo Bills $1.35 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers $3.30 |
| Spread | Buffalo Bills -6 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 49.0 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Moore, Buffalo Bills 0W–0L (0%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0W–0L (0%). Games average 49.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Buffalo Bills).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Buffalo Bills | Stat | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 23.0pts | Avg Score | 24.6pts |
| 21.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.8pts |
| 1.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills | W5 L · W6 L · W8 W · W9 W · W10 L | 23.0 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W5 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W · W10 L | 24.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Buffalo Bills | 44 – 32 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2023 | W8 | Buffalo Bills | 24 – 18 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2021 | W14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 33 – 27 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2017 | W7 | Buffalo Bills | 30 – 27 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2013 | W14 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 27 – 6 | Buffalo Bills |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at New Era Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | James Cook | RB | 7 in 9g | 9/10g (2·1·2·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 19/34g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.70 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 7 in 9g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2·2·0) | 2/2g | 42/68g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 11' 51' 58' |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/33g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 27% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Curtis Samuel | WR | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 3/11g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 15/49g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 5/15g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Ty Johnson | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 5/22g | 16% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Gabe Davis | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 17/36g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Josh Palmer | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Keleki Latu | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mecole Hardman | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Reggie Gilliam | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Tyrell Shavers | WR | 0 in 7g | 1/8g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/5g | 13% | — | 🏉 21' |

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.65 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 23% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $19.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | 🏉 25' 38' 47' |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Owen Wright | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Teddy Bridgewater | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Rachaad White 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Tez Johnson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: B.Mayfield, S.Tucker

**Buffalo Bills** (3 picks)
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 58% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Josh Allen — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q1, Q4, Q4**
- ⚡ Khalil Shakir — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Bills: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Shavers, Ty.Johnson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Buffalo Bills 1610 · Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1556 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Buffalo Bills | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 61 | 53 | Buffalo Bills +8 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 66 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +15 |
| Backfield | 57 | 52 | Buffalo Bills +5 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 61 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +9 |
| Special Teams | 52 | 65 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 76%** — Buffalo Bills predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)