# Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 11 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Arizona Cardinals 22 – 41 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers stake a claim over Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 10 – 25 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Arizona Cardinals 46% / San Francisco 49ers 54% · State Farm Stadium · Mon, 17 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Arizona Cardinals: Knight (10'), Trey McBride (52' Tipped ⚡), Greg Dortch (58') · San Francisco 49ers: Christian McCaffrey (1' Tipped ⚡), George Kittle (6' Tipped ⚡), Christian McCaffrey (17' Tipped ⚡), George Kittle (43' Tipped ⚡), Christian McCaffrey (56' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 54% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.0 predicted → 19 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 11, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 17 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Arizona Cardinals 22–41 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 11 at State Farm Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three turnovers to none. That's the number that matters here, and it's why San Francisco 49ers left State Farm Stadium with a 41-22 win despite getting beaten up on the stat sheet everywhere else.

Because make no mistake, Arizona Cardinals won the yardage battle and won it comfortably. 488 total yards to 295, 452 of it through the air from Jacoby Brissett, 41 first downs to 34. On paper that's a team that should be walking off happy. Instead they're walking off having shipped 41 points, and the turnover column tells you why.

The 49ers didn't need to out-gain anyone. Christian McCaffrey did the damage himself, three touchdowns and 81 yards on just 13 carries, backing up a backfield rating that had San Francisco at 71 against Arizona's 47 coming in. George Kittle chipped in two more scores. Five touchdowns between two players is about as efficient as it gets, and it meant Brock Purdy only had to throw for 200 yards on 19-of-26 to make it count.

The chronological run tells the story of a game that never really swung back. McCaffrey opened it inside the first two minutes and Kittle followed before the first quarter was even five minutes old, 13-0 before Arizona had found their footing. Zaven Knight got one back to make it 13-6, but McCaffrey's second touchdown pushed it to 19-7 and by half-time it was 25-10. San Francisco kept adding through the third and fourth, Kittle's second, McCaffrey's third, and by the time Trey McBride and Greg Dortch scored late for Arizona in the fourth quarter it was mop-up duty on a scoreboard already decided.

Brissett actually threw for more yards than Purdy by more than double, 452 to 200, but two interceptions against those two touchdowns tells its own story, and Michael Wilson's 15 catches for 185 yards were the definition of empty stats on a losing side. Arizona also managed just one sack and 36 rushing yards all night against a 49ers defence that didn't need to do much heavy lifting once the turnovers started rolling in.

Pre-match, Alphr's model had this one about as tight as they come: Arizona Cardinals 1457 to San Francisco 49ers' 1494, expected margin of just 1 point and a combined total of 50. San Francisco covered the win side of that at 54% probability, which is exactly how it landed. The margin read is where it fell over badly, tipped at 1 point and finishing at 19. Arizona's form had them 1-4 in their last five, San Francisco 2-3, and neither line hinted at a night where the losing team would out-gain the winner by close to 200 yards and still lose by three touchdowns.

Wins and misses, all of it. The model called the right team. It just didn't see the turnover column coming, and neither, by the end, did Arizona.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 7 | 3 | 0 | 12 | 22 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 13 | 12 | 10 | 6 | 41 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| **488** | Total Yards | 295 |
| **452** | Passing Yards | 200 |
| 36 | Rushing Yards | **95** |
| **41** | First Downs | 34 |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **7.3** | Offensive EPA | 6.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted San Francisco 49ers to win at 54% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.0 but the actual margin was 19 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 63 points was 18 points above Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Despite Carl Cheffers's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side San Francisco 49ers prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.52 (edge -11.3%) — model probability 54.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 1 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

San Francisco 49ers are the call at 54%, but Arizona Cardinals stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: San Francisco 49ers sit 37 ELO points clear, 1494 to 1457. Form leans San Francisco 49ers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

San Francisco 49ers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Arizona Cardinals by 1.0, with the two sides combining for about 50. Lean San Francisco 49ers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and San Francisco 49ers took the most recent meeting 41-22 in 2025 Week 11.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 at home, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Jacoby Brissett starts under centre for Arizona Cardinals, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Jonathan Gannon and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, Arizona Cardinals $2.60 and San Francisco 49ers $1.52, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -3.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Arizona Cardinals 5 · San Francisco 49ers 7 |
| Last meeting | San Francisco 49ers 41-22 (2025) |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 home |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jacoby Brissett · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Jonathan Gannon · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | Arizona Cardinals $2.60 · San Francisco 49ers $1.52 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -3.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 9W–11L | 45% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 10W–11L | 48% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Carl Cheffers, Arizona Cardinals 9W–11L (45%) and San Francisco 49ers 10W–11L (48%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Arizona Cardinals | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 24.0pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 28.2pts | Avg Conceded | 26.4pts |
| -4.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W9 W · W10 L | 24.0 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W9 W · W10 L | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — San Francisco 49ers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Arizona Cardinals | 22 – 41 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | W3 | San Francisco 49ers | 16 – 15 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2024 | W18 | Arizona Cardinals | 47 – 24 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W5 | San Francisco 49ers | 23 – 24 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2023 | W15 | Arizona Cardinals | 29 – 45 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at State Farm Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 2/7g | 6/24g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 38% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/8g | 5/30g | 18% | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 4/15g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/7g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $10.00 AI 27% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $71.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/19g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Andre Baccellia | WR | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/16g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Josiah Deguara | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Pharaoh Brown | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Weaver | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 8 in 10g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·2·0) | 10/8g | 4/3g | 70% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.43 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.30 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 1' 17' 56' |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 7/14g | 1/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' 43' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 5/8g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.75 AI 29% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 45% · **scored Q1, Q2, Q4**
- ⚡ Ricky Pearsall 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ George Kittle — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q1, Q3**
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5

**Arizona Cardinals** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 38% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Michael Carter 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 27% · no TD
- Rest of the Cardinals: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: Z.Knight, G.Dortch

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Arizona Cardinals 1457 · San Francisco 49ers 1494 · ELO difference: 37 in favour of San Francisco 49ers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Arizona Cardinals | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 52 | 59 | San Francisco 49ers +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 58 | 62 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 71 | San Francisco 49ers +24 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 48 | Arizona Cardinals +8 |
| Secondary | 53 | 49 | Even |
| Special Teams | 61 | 58 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — San Francisco 49ers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-16 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)