# Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New England Patriots — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23 – 28 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots survive a scare against Tampa Bay Buccaneers._

Half time: 10 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 40% / New England Patriots 60% · Raymond James Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Emeka Egbuka (4' Tipped ⚡), Tez Johnson (41'), Tez Johnson (60') · New England Patriots: Kyle Williams (15'), Stefon Diggs (30' Tipped ⚡), TreVeyon Henderson (31'), TreVeyon Henderson (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 60% | Won |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 5 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23–28 New England Patriots in NFL Week 10 at Raymond James Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England led for the best part of three quarters, but Tampa Bay never let the margin get comfortable until it was too late to matter. Final score 28-23 to the Patriots at Raymond James Stadium, and the story is in how many times the Bucs clawed back before running out of road.

The Bucs actually opened the scoring, Emeka Egbuka in from range to make it 6-0 with 11:30 left in the first. New England needed just over eleven minutes to answer through Kyle Williams, and from there it was a genuine arm wrestle. Tampa Bay led 7-6, New England replied to tie it 7-7 at the end of the first, then Stefon Diggs put the Patriots up 14-10 right on the half-time siren. That's a four-point gap at the break, hardly the kind of lead you can relax with.

It stretched further in the third when TreVeyon Henderson scored his first of two, pushing it to 20-10. Tampa Bay wouldn't go quietly, Tez Johnson getting the first of his own brace to trim it back to 21-16 heading into the last quarter. Henderson struck again with 1:43 to go, the Patriots' biggest cushion of the day at 27-16, and it looked done. Johnson wasn't finished either, another score with 38 seconds left dragging it back to 28-23. Close, but no further. New England's lead was never actually safe until the clock said so.

Look at the yardage and you'd back Tampa Bay: 386 total yards against New England's 436 isn't the gap that decides a game like this. First downs went heavily the Bucs' way, 37 to 23, and Baker Mayfield was busy all night, 28-of-43 for 273 yards and 3 touchdowns. But footy isn't measured in first downs alone. New England's offensive EPA sat at 9.4 against Tampa Bay's 3, a gulf of 6.4 that tells you who was doing more with less. The Patriots ran for 166 yards, 38 percent of their total output, with Henderson alone racking up 147 on just 14 carries. That's a backfield mismatch the pre-match ratings flagged too, New England's backfield rated only 44 against Tampa Bay's 56, and Henderson made a nonsense of it.

Drake Maye wasn't asked to do much heavy lifting, 16-of-31 for 270 yards, 2 touchdowns and an interception, and didn't need to be. Turnovers were the other separator: New England's lone giveaway didn't cost them, while Tampa Bay's clean sheet on the ball didn't save them either. Two sacks to one also went the Patriots' way, small things that add up.

Egbuka was the one bright spot in a losing effort, 6 catches for 115 yards and a score, proof the Bucs' receiving corps could hold its own against a Patriots pass defence that wasn't rated far ahead, 58 to 55. It just wasn't enough to offset New England's edge at quarterback, 70 to 53 in the pre-match numbers, or a backfield that turned out to be the difference.

Alphr's model had New England favourites at 60 percent, tipped them by 3.9, and called the total at 51. Final margin was 5, final total was 51 on the nose. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one was about as clean a read as you'll get.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 23 |
| New England Patriots | 7 | 7 | 7 | 7 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 386 | Total Yards | **436** |
| **273** | Passing Yards | 270 |
| 113 | Rushing Yards | **166** |
| **37** | First Downs | 23 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **2** |
| 3 | Offensive EPA | **9.4** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 60% probability. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 5-point result. Total score prediction of 51 was close to the actual 51, within 0 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 5 points above Alex Kemp's career average of 46. New England Patriots's victory aligns with Alex Kemp's historical trend, New England Patriots have a 64% win rate under this referee. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side New England Patriots prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $2.24 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 60.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 4 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

New England Patriots are the call at 60%, but Tampa Bay Buccaneers stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Tampa Bay Buccaneers sit 82 ELO points clear, 1580 to 1498, so the model is backing New England Patriots against the ratings gap. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

On paper Tampa Bay Buccaneers shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. The model still sides with New England Patriots, which says Quarterback and Recent Form carry the most weight. The margin model has Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 51. Lean New England Patriots, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 28-23 in 2025 Week 10.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 22.4 points for and 24.2 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Baker Mayfield starts under centre for Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Todd Bowles and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

The market has Tampa Bay Buccaneers favourites, Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.68 and New England Patriots $2.24, with the spread at Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2 · New England Patriots 5 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 28-23 (2025) |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-4 home |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers scoring | 22.4 for · 24.2 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Baker Mayfield · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Todd Bowles · Mike Vrabel |
| Rest | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14d · New England Patriots 7d |
| Market | Tampa Bay Buccaneers $1.68 · New England Patriots $2.24 |
| Spread | Tampa Bay Buccaneers -2.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New England Patriots

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 5W–4L | 56% |
| New England Patriots | 7W–4L | 64% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

New England Patriots hold a 8-point edge: 7W–4L (64%) vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers's 5W–4L (56%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 25.0pts | Avg Score | 27.0pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 17.6pts |
| 2.6pts | Avg Margin | 9.4pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | W4 L · W5 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W | 25.0 |
| New England Patriots | W5 W · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 W | 27.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 23 – 28 | New England Patriots |
| 2021 | W4 | New England Patriots | 17 – 19 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2017 | W5 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 14 – 19 | New England Patriots |
| 2013 | W3 | New England Patriots | 23 – 3 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2009 | W7 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 7 – 35 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Raymond James Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Emeka Egbuka | WR | 5 in 8g | 5/8g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.18 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| – | Rachaad White | RB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 13/30g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sean Tucker | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/14g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Tez Johnson | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 29% | — | 🏉 41' 60' |
| – | Kameron Johnson | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Ryan Miller | WR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/7g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Sterling Shepard | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Baker Mayfield | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/23g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Cade Otton | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/27g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Payne Durham | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/11g | 13% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 25% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.30 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Terrell Jennings | RB | 1 in 3g | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | 🏉 31' 59' |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jack Westover | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 15' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Hunter Henry 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 25% · no TD
- ⚡ Drake Maye — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Williams, T.Henderson

**Tampa Bay Buccaneers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Emeka Egbuka 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Rachaad White 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- ⚡ Cade Otton — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Buccaneers: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Johnson

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Tampa Bay Buccaneers 1580 · New England Patriots 1498 · ELO difference: 82 in favour of Tampa Bay Buccaneers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 70 | New England Patriots +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 58 | Even |
| Backfield | 56 | 44 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +12 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 47 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +10 |
| Secondary | 62 | 55 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7 |
| Special Teams | 73 | 68 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Tampa Bay Buccaneers |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — New England Patriots predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-09 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)