# Seattle Seahawks v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 44 – 22 Arizona Cardinals

_Seattle Seahawks soar past Arizona Cardinals._

Half time: 38 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 79% / Arizona Cardinals 21% · Lumen Field · Mon, 10 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Jaxon Smith-Njigba (4' Tipped ⚡), DeMarcus Lawrence (6'), George Holani (14'), DeMarcus Lawrence (16'), Zach Charbonnet (22' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Greg Dortch (28'), Trey McBride (37' Tipped ⚡), Harrison (51')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 79% | Won |
| Arizona Cardinals | 21% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.1 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 08:05 am_

Seattle Seahawks 44–22 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 10 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle Seahawks led 38-7 at the break, and by any normal reading of a football game that's a contest already over. Arizona Cardinals proved that reading half right. They came out of the sheds and outscored Seattle Seahawks 15-6 the rest of the way, closing to 41-21 with just under ten minutes left. It still finished 44-22. Some deficits are just too deep to climb out of, no matter who wins the second half.

The first half was as one-sided as the final margin suggests it shouldn't have been. Jaxon Smith-Njigba got it started, Seattle Seahawks piled on through the first quarter to lead 21-0, then kept adding before the break to make it 38-7. George Holani and Zach Charbonnet both got in among the scoring, and by half-time Arizona Cardinals had one touchdown, from Greg Dortch, to show for it.

Then the game flipped on its head, statistically speaking. Arizona Cardinals actually outgained Seattle Seahawks for the match, 387 yards to 376, and did it mostly through the air. Jacoby Brissett threw 44 times for 258 yards and 2 touchdowns, finding Trey McBride nine times for 127 yards and a score. Marvin Harrison Jr. got the other Arizona Cardinals touchdown late in the fourth. On paper that's a quarterback and a receiving corps that showed up.

It just came too late and cost too much to matter. Sam Darnold needed only 12 attempts to get his 178 yards, completing 10 for a touchdown and an interception, and Seattle Seahawks leaned on the ground game to do the rest: 198 rushing yards, more than half their total output, with Zach Charbonnet running for 83 on 14 carries and a touchdown of his own. That's the version of football where you don't need the ball much if you're doing more with it every time you have it.

The efficiency numbers back that up. Seattle Seahawks finished at +4 offensive EPA against Arizona Cardinals' minus 15.6, a 19.6 point gap in the way each side actually used its snaps. Seattle Seahawks's pass rush got home five times to Arizona Cardinals' one, which explains plenty about why Brissett needed 44 throws to get to 258 yards instead of 22. Seattle Seahawks did lose the turnover count, 3 to 2, and gave up more first downs, 33 to 26. None of it mattered with a 31-point head start sitting in the bank.

Going in, Alphr's model had Seattle Seahawks a step ahead across the board, stronger in the secondary (62 to 52) and clearly ahead on special teams (78 to 66), with form to match: four wins from five against Arizona Cardinals' one, and a plus 8 average margin against Arizona Cardinals sitting on minus 0.4. The rating gap, 1617 to 1471, had Seattle Seahawks favoured by 9.1 points on a projected total of 51.

The model called the winner right at 79 per cent. The margin was where it got embarrassed: predicted at 9.1, actual at 22, and the combined total landed at 66, fifteen more than forecast. Arizona Cardinals' second-half surge was real, on the stat sheet at least. It just arrived about two quarters too late to change anything on the scoreboard.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 21 | 17 | 0 | 6 | 44 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 376 | Total Yards | **387** |
| 178 | Passing Yards | **258** |
| **198** | Rushing Yards | 129 |
| 26 | First Downs | **33** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **2** |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **4** | Offensive EPA | -15.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 79% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.1 but the actual margin was 22 points. The game's 66 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 51. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 66 points was 22 points above Alan Eck's career average of 44. Seattle Seahawks's home victory fits Alan Eck's profile, home teams win 67% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 78.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 9 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Seattle Seahawks here: 79% to see off Arizona Cardinals. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 146 ELO points clear, 1617 to 1471. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Arizona Cardinals.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 9.1, with the two sides combining for about 51. Seattle Seahawks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Seattle Seahawks have won 10 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 44-22 in 2025 Week 10.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Jacoby Brissett for Arizona Cardinals, with Mike Macdonald and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.29 and Arizona Cardinals $3.70, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -7 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 10 · Arizona Cardinals 2 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 44-22 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Jacoby Brissett |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.29 · Arizona Cardinals $3.70 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -7 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 0W–1L | 0% |

Avg total: 44.3 pts · Home win %: 67% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alan Eck, Seattle Seahawks 0W–0L (0%) and Arizona Cardinals 0W–1L (0%). Home teams win 67% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Seattle Seahawks).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 28.6pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 20.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| 8.0pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W9 W | 28.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W9 W | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Seattle Seahawks | 44 – 22 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2025 | W4 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 23 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W14 | Arizona Cardinals | 18 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W12 | Seattle Seahawks | 16 – 6 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2023 | W18 | Arizona Cardinals | 20 – 21 | Seattle Seahawks |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·1·2·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 3/12g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 3/4g | 9/19g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 22' |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 3/5g | 12/21g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 49% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 4' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 13/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 37% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/16g | 0/8g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Drew Lock | QB | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Nick Kallerup | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Robbie Ouzts | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trey McBride | TE | 5 in 8g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 40% | 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bam Knight | RB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Jacoby Brissett | QB | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Michael Carter | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | 🎯 First TD $101.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Kedon Slovis | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Simi Fehoko | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Zay Jones | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: G.Dortch, M.Harrison

**Seattle Seahawks** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 49% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ AJ Barner — 4 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Lawrence, G.Holani

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1617 · Arizona Cardinals 1471 · ELO difference: 146 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Receiving Corps | 66 | 66 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 48 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 62 | 52 | Seattle Seahawks +10 |
| Special Teams | 78 | 66 | Seattle Seahawks +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | — |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 79%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-09 21:05 UTC (latest tip update)