# San Francisco 49ers v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: San Francisco 49ers 26 – 42 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams bulldoze San Francisco 49ers._

Half time: 7 – 21 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: San Francisco 49ers 43% / Los Angeles Rams 57% · Levi's Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — San Francisco 49ers: Jauan Jennings (27'), Brian Robinson (36'), Luke Farrell (48'), George Kittle (57' Tipped ⚡) · Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (5' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (10' Tipped ⚡), Davis Allen (17'), Davante Adams (43' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (50' Tipped ⚡), Colby Parkinson (55')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 57% | Won |
| San Francisco 49ers | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 08:25 am_

San Francisco 49ers 26–42 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Week 10 at Levi's Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Rams did it the old-fashioned way: 126 yards on the ground, four different names finding paydirt, and not a single turnover to clean up after themselves. San Francisco 49ers went the other direction, chucking it 39 times for 319 yards through the air and still finishing the night down 42-26. Volume without control. That's the story in a sentence.

The Rams were up 14-0 before the 49ers had so much as troubled the scoreboard, Kyren Williams and Puka Nacua doing the damage inside the first quarter. San Francisco's response was a slow build rather than a punch back: Jauan Jennings got them on the board late in the second, but by half-time it was already 21-7 and the gap felt bigger than a fortnight.

The third quarter had the shape of a fightback, Brian Robinson pulling it to 13-21, before Davante Adams answered straight back for LA. Then the fourth quarter turned into an arm-wrestle nobody was winning: Luke Farrell, Kyren Williams' second, Colby Parkinson, George Kittle, four scores in twelve minutes and the margin never actually closing. San Francisco kept scoring. They just never stopped being behind.

Total yards were close, 406 to 393, which tells you the story isn't really about who moved the ball. It's about what happened when they had it. San Francisco coughed it up twice and forced nothing in return, and Offensive EPA had the Rams ahead 23.1 to 14.2, the efficiency gap that actually decided this. Forty-nine first downs to forty for LA, one sack for San Francisco all night. Every one of those margins pointed the same way.

Individually, Mac Jones was busy, 33 from 39 for 319 yards and 3 touchdowns, but the pick mattered more than the volume suggested it should. Matthew Stafford was tidier, 24 of 36 for 280 and 4 scores, spreading it across five different receivers. Kyren Williams led every rusher with 73 yards on 14 carries and 2 touchdowns, the kind of workload San Francisco's run defence had no answer for. George Kittle was the one bright constant for the home side, 9 catches for

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 26 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 14 | 7 | 7 | 14 | 42 |

**Key Match Stats**

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 393 | Total Yards | **406** |
| **319** | Passing Yards | 280 |
| 74 | Rushing Yards | **126** |
| 40 | First Downs | **49** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **1** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 14.2 | Offensive EPA | **23.1** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 16 points. The game's 68 points came in 20 points higher than the predicted 48. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Land Clark officiated this match (95 career games). The combined score of 68 points was 23 points above Land Clark's career average of 45. Los Angeles Rams's victory aligns with Land Clark's historical trend, Los Angeles Rams have a 50% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.39 (edge -15.4%) — model probability 56.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 3 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 57%, but San Francisco 49ers stay live at 43%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 104 ELO points clear, 1621 to 1517. Form leans Los Angeles Rams' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for San Francisco 49ers.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 42-26 in 2025 Week 10.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Brock Purdy starts under centre for San Francisco 49ers, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Kyle Shanahan and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, San Francisco 49ers $3.10 and Los Angeles Rams $1.39, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -5.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | San Francisco 49ers 7 · Los Angeles Rams 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 42-26 (2025) |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 home |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Brock Purdy · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Kyle Shanahan · Sean McVay |
| Market | San Francisco 49ers $3.10 · Los Angeles Rams $1.39 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -5.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Land Clark |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Land Clark** — 95 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Land Clark | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | 1W–3L | 25% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 1W–1L | 50% |

Avg total: 45.3 pts · Home win %: 43% · Home bias: Leans away

When Land Clark officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 1 of 2 games (50%), significantly stronger than San Francisco 49ers's 1 from 4 (25%). Away teams perform well, home sides win just 43%, below ~55% league avg. Small sample (2 games for Los Angeles Rams).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| San Francisco 49ers | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 22.8pts | Avg Score | 27.2pts |
| 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 13.2pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | 14.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| San Francisco 49ers | W5 W · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L · W9 W | 22.8 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W4 W · W5 L · W6 W · W7 W · W9 W | 27.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | San Francisco 49ers | 26 – 42 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W5 | Los Angeles Rams | 23 – 26 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W15 | San Francisco 49ers | 6 – 12 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | W3 | Los Angeles Rams | 27 – 24 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2023 | W18 | San Francisco 49ers | 20 – 21 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Levi's Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·1·2·0·2) | 6/5g | 26/24g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.69 AI 52% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Kittle | TE | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 7/14g | 25/62g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 57' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/7g | 6/33g | 18% | — | 🏉 27' |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 34% | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 9/59g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 6/31g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.30 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·3·2) | 7/8g | 3/4g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.85 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1) | 7/4g | 0/1g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 50' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.78 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.80 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' |
| – | Davis Allen | TE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 21% | — | 🏉 17' |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 2 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/15g | 1/7g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 2g | 1/2g (0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 1 in 4g | 1/4g (0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 55' |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 50% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Rams: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Allen, C.Parkinson

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 52% · no TD
- ⚡ George Kittle — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Kendrick Bourne — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Jennings, B.Robinson, L.Farrell

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — San Francisco 49ers 1517 · Los Angeles Rams 1621 · ELO difference: 104 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 58 | 73 | Los Angeles Rams +15 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 63 | Los Angeles Rams +9 |
| Backfield | 74 | 57 | San Francisco 49ers +17 |
| Pass Rush | 47 | 61 | Los Angeles Rams +14 |
| Secondary | 48 | 61 | Los Angeles Rams +13 |
| Special Teams | 76 | 45 | San Francisco 49ers +31 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Los Angeles Rams predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-09 21:25 UTC (latest tip update)