# New York Jets v Cleveland Browns — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New York Jets 27 – 20 Cleveland Browns

_New York Jets jet past a gallant Cleveland Browns._

Half time: 17 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New York Jets 36% / Cleveland Browns 64% · MetLife Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New York Jets: Kene Nwangwu (9'), Isaiah Williams (9'), Breece Hall (46' Tipped ⚡) · Cleveland Browns: David Njoku (9'), Jerry Jeudy (20')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cleveland Browns | 64% | Lost |
| New York Jets | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.6 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New York Jets vs Cleveland Browns Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

New York Jets 27–20 Cleveland Browns in NFL Week 10 at MetLife Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six minutes into the first quarter, Cleveland led 6-0 off a David Njoku touchdown and everything about the numbers said that lead should have grown. It didn't. New York answered inside a minute with Kene Nwangwu, then again five minutes later with Isaiah Williams, and by the end of the quarter the Jets were up 14-7 on a team that would go on to outgain them by 144 yards. That burst is the whole game.

Final score: Jets 27, Browns 20. Cleveland clawed the margin back to 17-17 by half-time through Jerry Jeudy, and from there the sides traded nothing for a stretch, still level after three quarters. Breece Hall broke the deadlock with 14:21 left in the fourth, and New York never gave it back.

The stat sheet reads like a loss for the home side. Cleveland ran up 325 total yards to New York's 181, doubled them up on first downs 26 to 10, and were the better offence by any measure that counts efficiency, +9.0 expected points per the model's ledger against a horror -14.7 for the Jets. Dillon Gabriel had the tidier day under centre too, 17-of-32 for 167 yards and two scores, next to Justin Fields' scratchy 6-of-11 for 54 with a touchdown and an interception thrown in.

None of that mattered where it counted. New York won the turnover battle 1-0 in their favour and got to the quarterback six times to Cleveland's three, and those two numbers did the heavy lifting the yardage column can't explain. Breece Hall was the best player on the field regardless of side, 83 yards on 21 carries and a touchdown, doing damage on the ground for an offence that managed just 54 through the air all day.

Cleveland's issue wasn't a lack of a plan, it's that the plan worked and the scoreboard didn't care. Jeudy was the game's leading receiver by a distance, 6 catches for 78 yards and a score, and the Browns leaned on the run for 158 yards, 49% of their total output. They did just about everything you'd want from an offence chasing a road win. They just couldn't turn any of it into more points than New York's three touchdowns in the opening frame and Hall's fourth-quarter dagger.

Going in, the positional read favoured New York at quarterback (53 to 32), receivers (56 to 47) and the backfield (57 to 52), while Cleveland held the edge in the secondary (57 to 52) and had a marginal one at pass rush. Both sides came in scuffling, Jets 1-4 in their last five with an average margin of -5.8, Browns the same record at -7.2, so this was always closer to a coin flip than either team's season suggested.

Alphr's model had Cleveland favoured at 64%, expecting them by 5.6 on a projected total of 36. New York won by 7 instead, and did it on 181

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 14 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| Cleveland Browns | 7 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New York Jets | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 181 | Total Yards | **325** |
| 54 | Passing Yards | **167** |
| 127 | Rushing Yards | **158** |
| 10 | First Downs | **26** |
| 1 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -14.7 | Offensive EPA | **-5.8** |

**Model Report Card**

New York Jets defied the model's 64% prediction for Cleveland Browns, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.6 but the actual margin was 7 points. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Smith's career average of 47. New York Jets bucked the trend, Cleveland Browns historically win 44% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cleveland Browns to win @ $1.77 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 64.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 6 · Predicted total: 36

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cleveland Browns are the call at 64%, but New York Jets stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cleveland Browns sit 27 ELO points clear, 1382 to 1355.

Cleveland Browns own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Secondary. The margin model has Cleveland Browns by 5.6, with the two sides combining for about 36. Lean Cleveland Browns, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New York Jets have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and New York Jets took the most recent meeting 27-20 in 2025 Week 10.

New York Jets went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 at home, averaging 17.6 points for and 29.6 against.

Cleveland Browns went 5-12 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.4 points for and 22.3 against.

Justin Fields starts under centre for New York Jets, Dillon Gabriel for Cleveland Browns, with Aaron Glenn and Kevin Stefanski calling the shots.

The market has Cleveland Browns favourites, New York Jets $2.10 and Cleveland Browns $1.77, with the spread at Cleveland Browns -1.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New York Jets 8 · Cleveland Browns 4 |
| Last meeting | New York Jets 27-20 (2025) |
| New York Jets 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 home |
| New York Jets scoring | 17.6 for · 29.6 against |
| Cleveland Browns 2025 so far | 5-12 · 2-6 away |
| Cleveland Browns scoring | 16.4 for · 22.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Fields · Dillon Gabriel |
| Head coaches | Aaron Glenn · Kevin Stefanski |
| Market | New York Jets $2.10 · Cleveland Browns $1.77 |
| Spread | Cleveland Browns -1.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cleveland Browns

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | 1W–6L | 14% |
| Cleveland Browns | 4W–5L | 44% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Smith officiates, Cleveland Browns have won 4 of 9 games (44%), significantly stronger than New York Jets's 1 from 7 (14%). Small sample (7 games for New York Jets).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New York Jets | Stat | Cleveland Browns |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.8pts | Avg Score | 16.0pts |
| 25.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.2pts |
| -5.8pts | Avg Margin | -7.2pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 14.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New York Jets | W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 L · W8 W | 19.8 |
| Cleveland Browns | W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 L | 16.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New York Jets lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | New York Jets | 27 – 20 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2023 | W17 | Cleveland Browns | 37 – 20 | New York Jets |
| 2022 | W2 | Cleveland Browns | 30 – 31 | New York Jets |
| 2020 | W16 | New York Jets | 23 – 16 | Cleveland Browns |
| 2019 | W2 | New York Jets | 3 – 23 | Cleveland Browns |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at MetLife Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New York Jets** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Garrett Wilson | WR | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 2/2g | 10/30g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Fields | QB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/6g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Breece Hall | RB | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 2/2g | 10/26g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 31% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| – | Andrew Beck | RB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Jeremy Ruckert | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/20g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Mason Taylor | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Johnson | WR | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Arian Smith | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Davis | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/11g | 7% | — | — |
| – | Isaiah Williams | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | John Metchie III | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kene Nwangwu | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 11% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Stone Smartt | TE | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 3% | — | — |

**Cleveland Browns** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quinshon Judkins | RB | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (0·1·1·0·0·3·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.86 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.10 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cedric Tillman | WR | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | David Njoku | TE | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 34% | — | 🏉 9' |
| – | Harold Fannin Jr. | TE | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dylan Sampson | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Blake Whiteheart | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Dillon Gabriel | QB | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Gage Larvadain | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamari Thrash | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jerome Ford | RB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jerry Jeudy | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 12% | — | 🏉 20' |
| – | Malachi Corley | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Cleveland Browns** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Quinshon Judkins 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Cedric Tillman — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- ⚡ Harold Fannin Jr. — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Browns: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Njoku, J.Jeudy

**New York Jets** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Garrett Wilson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Breece Hall 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Justin Fields 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Jets: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: K.Nwangwu, I.Williams

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New York Jets 1355 · Cleveland Browns 1382 · ELO difference: 27 in favour of Cleveland Browns

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New York Jets | Cleveland Browns | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 53 | 32 | New York Jets +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 47 | New York Jets +9 |
| Backfield | 57 | 52 | New York Jets +5 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 52 | 57 | Cleveland Browns +5 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 51 | New York Jets +6 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New York Jets |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Cleveland Browns |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Cleveland Browns predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 36 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r10-new-york-jets-v-cleveland-browns
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-09 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)