# Minnesota Vikings v Baltimore Ravens — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Minnesota Vikings 19 – 27 Baltimore Ravens

_Baltimore Ravens roar back to outsmart Minnesota Vikings._

Half time: 10 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Minnesota Vikings 10% / Baltimore Ravens 90% · U.S. Bank Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Jones (6' Tipped ⚡), Jalen Nailor (57') · Baltimore Ravens: Justice Hill (37'), Mark Andrews (50')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Baltimore Ravens | 90% | Won |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Minnesota Vikings vs Baltimore Ravens Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Minnesota Vikings 19–27 Baltimore Ravens in NFL Week 10 at U.S. Bank Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

At half-time it read Minnesota Vikings 10, Baltimore Ravens 9, a scoreline so tight it barely hinted at what was coming. By full time it was Ravens 27, Vikings 19, and the second half is where that flat, even game turned into a comfortable Baltimore win.

The Vikings had the better start. Aaron Jones scored with 9:50 left in the first quarter to make it 6-0, and Minnesota carried a 7-3 lead into the second before Baltimore nudged ahead 9-10 at the break. It stayed a one score game right up until Justice Hill crossed for the Ravens with 8:09 left in the third quarter, making it 18-10. Minnesota still had 13-19 heading into the fourth, close enough to matter, before Mark Andrews scored with 10:44 remaining to push it to 25-13. Jalen Nailor got one back for the Vikings with 3:28 left, 27-19, but Baltimore never let the margin slip below one score again.

Minnesota actually outgained Baltimore for the night, 368 total yards to 328, which will be cold comfort in the locker room. The problem was what they did with the ball. Two turnovers to none against a Ravens side that needed just 29 first downs to Minnesota's 24 sums up the mismatch in efficiency. The advanced numbers back it up: Baltimore's offensive EPA sat at minus 1.7, Minnesota's at minus 10. The Vikings moved the ball, but the Ravens made theirs count.

Baltimore did most of its damage on the ground. Derrick Henry carried 20 times for 75 yards, and the Ravens finished with 152 rushing yards overall against Minnesota's 120. Through the air it was closer to a mismatch on paper: J.J. McCarthy threw 20 of 42 for 248 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions, while Lamar Jackson was tidier, 17 of 29 for 176 yards and a touchdown of his own. Jalen Nailor was the best individual performer on the day regardless of result, five catches for 124 yards and a score.

Neither side pressured the passer much. Each team managed just one sack, which is notable given Minnesota's pass rush was rated the stronger unit coming in, 61 to 54. It didn't translate into disruption when it mattered.

The pre-match numbers pointed to exactly this kind of result. Baltimore's quarterback rating, 72 to Minnesota's 28, was the standout gap on the sheet, and the Ravens also came in fresher, with 10 days rest against Minnesota's 7. Both sides had shaky recent form, two wins apiece in their last five, but Baltimore's was trending up (LLLWW) while Minnesota's wobbled (LWLLW).

Alphr's model had Baltimore favoured by 5.7 points and gave them a 90 per cent chance to win, with a combined total of 44. The Ravens won by 8, and the final score added up to 46. Both close enough to call it a sharp read on a game that looked even at half-time and wasn't, not once the third quarter got going.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 7 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| **368** | Total Yards | 328 |
| **248** | Passing Yards | 176 |
| 120 | Rushing Yards | **152** |
| 24 | First Downs | **29** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -10 | Offensive EPA | **-1.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Baltimore Ravens to win at 90% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Baltimore Ravens by 5.7 vs the actual margin of 8 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 46, within 2 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. Baltimore Ravens bucked the trend, Minnesota Vikings historically win 100% of games under Shawn Hochuli, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.43 (edge +20.6%) — model probability 90.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 6 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Baltimore Ravens here: 90% to see off Minnesota Vikings. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Baltimore Ravens sit 26 ELO points clear, 1557 to 1531.

Baltimore Ravens own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Baltimore Ravens by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Baltimore Ravens to win, not to win big.

Baltimore Ravens have won 5 of the last 7 between these two, and Baltimore Ravens took the most recent meeting 27-19 in 2025 Week 10.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-4 at home, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Baltimore Ravens went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 24.9 points for and 23.4 against.

J.J. McCarthy starts under centre for Minnesota Vikings, Lamar Jackson for Baltimore Ravens, with Kevin O'Connell and John Harbaugh calling the shots.

Baltimore Ravens come in fresher, 10 days between games against 7.

The market has Baltimore Ravens favourites, Minnesota Vikings $2.90 and Baltimore Ravens $1.43, with the spread at Baltimore Ravens -4.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Minnesota Vikings 2 · Baltimore Ravens 5 |
| Last meeting | Baltimore Ravens 27-19 (2025) |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-4 home |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Baltimore Ravens 2025 so far | 8-9 · 5-3 away |
| Baltimore Ravens scoring | 24.9 for · 23.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | J.J. McCarthy · Lamar Jackson |
| Head coaches | Kevin O'Connell · John Harbaugh |
| Rest | Minnesota Vikings 7d · Baltimore Ravens 10d |
| Market | Minnesota Vikings $2.90 · Baltimore Ravens $1.43 |
| Spread | Baltimore Ravens -4.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Minnesota Vikings

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | 5W–0L | 100% |
| Baltimore Ravens | 3W–4L | 43% |

Avg total: 45.1 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, Minnesota Vikings have won 5 of 5 games (100%), significantly stronger than Baltimore Ravens's 3 from 7 (43%). Small sample (5 games for Minnesota Vikings).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Minnesota Vikings | Stat | Baltimore Ravens |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.2pts | Avg Score | 18.2pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -5.8pts | Avg Margin | -5.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 10.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Minnesota Vikings | W4 L · W5 W · W7 L · W8 L · W9 W | 20.2 |
| Baltimore Ravens | W4 L · W5 L · W6 L · W8 W · W9 W | 18.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Baltimore Ravens lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Minnesota Vikings | 19 – 27 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2021 | W9 | Baltimore Ravens | 34 – 31 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2017 | W7 | Minnesota Vikings | 24 – 16 | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2013 | W14 | Baltimore Ravens | 29 – 26 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2009 | W6 | Minnesota Vikings | 33 – 31 | Baltimore Ravens |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at U.S. Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/5g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | 2 in 3g | 2/3g (1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 67% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Addison | WR | 2 in 5g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 9/15g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 27/42g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 8/24g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 9/15g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 4/15g | 20% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | 0 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 25/55g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Ben Yurosek | TE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Ham | RB | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/49g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Myles Price | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Baltimore Ravens** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Derrick Henry | RB | 6 in 8g | 9/10g (2·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/2g | 2/1g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.72 AI 53% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.90 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Mark Andrews | TE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 50' |
| – | Charlie Kolar | TE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | DeAndre Hopkins | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/2g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Justice Hill | RB | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 37' |
| – | Rashod Bateman | WR | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Lamar Jackson | QB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Tylan Wallace | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Zay Flowers | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.60 AI 35% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Isaiah Likely | TE | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Keaton Mitchell | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | LaJohntay Wester | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Patrick Ricard | RB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Baltimore Ravens** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Derrick Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 53% · no TD
- ⚡ Zay Flowers — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 35% · no TD
- Rest of the Ravens: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Hill, M.Andrews

**Minnesota Vikings** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jordan Mason 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Jordan Addison — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Nailor

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Minnesota Vikings 1531 · Baltimore Ravens 1557 · ELO difference: 26 in favour of Baltimore Ravens

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Minnesota Vikings | Baltimore Ravens | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 28 | 72 | Baltimore Ravens +44 |
| Receiving Corps | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Backfield | 47 | 51 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 61 | 54 | Minnesota Vikings +7 |
| Secondary | 48 | 52 | Even |
| Special Teams | 65 | 57 | Minnesota Vikings +8 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Baltimore Ravens |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Baltimore Ravens |

**Model Confidence: 90%** — Baltimore Ravens predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-09 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)