# Los Angeles Chargers v Pittsburgh Steelers — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Los Angeles Chargers 25 – 10 Pittsburgh Steelers

_Los Angeles Chargers charge down Pittsburgh Steelers._

Half time: 12 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 53% / Pittsburgh Steelers 47% · SoFi Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Los Angeles Chargers: Ladd McConkey (30' Tipped ⚡), Kimani Vidal (51' Tipped ⚡) · Pittsburgh Steelers: Roman Wilson (57')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 53% | Won |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 15 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Los Angeles Chargers vs Pittsburgh Steelers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 12:20 pm_

Los Angeles Chargers 25–10 Pittsburgh Steelers in NFL Week 10 at SoFi Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Los Angeles Chargers beat Pittsburgh Steelers 25-10 at SoFi Stadium. Fifteen points looks like a tidy final margin, and it was, but the number that actually explains the game is the EPA split: Los Angeles at -7.7, Pittsburgh at -18.8. Neither team had a good offensive day by raw efficiency, but there's a gulf between mediocre and what Pittsburgh produced. This wasn't a shootout decided by one big play. It was one team moving the ball with some purpose and the other barely moving it at all.

The scoreboard didn't reflect that gap for a while. Pittsburgh actually led 3-2 after the first quarter, and this looked like it might be a genuine arm wrestle. Ladd McConkey's touchdown with 16 seconds left in the half made it 12-3 at the break, the Chargers' first real cushion. Pittsburgh kept it to a single score through three quarters, trailing 15-3, before Kimani Vidal's touchdown with 9:29 to go in the fourth put Los Angeles up 21-3 and put the result out of reach. Roman Wilson got Pittsburgh's only touchdown with 3:04 left, tidying up the final score rather than threatening it.

The full stat line backs up what the EPA number was already saying. Los Angeles finished with 335 total yards to Pittsburgh's 234, and 25 first downs to 16. They didn't turn the ball over once. Pittsburgh gave it away twice, and when you're already being outgained by 100 yards, two turnovers just pile more weight onto a bad day. The one column Pittsburgh won outright was the pass rush, five sacks to three, but sacks that don't produce takeaways further downfield don't do much for the scoreboard.

Justin Herbert finished 20 of 33 for 220 yards and a touchdown, competent rather than spectacular, but he didn't need to carry the game on his own with the run and receiving game both working. Aaron Rodgers threw for 161 yards and a touchdown on 16 of 31, numbers that read reasonably enough until you get to the two interceptions, which is the figure that actually tells you how his afternoon went.

On the ground, Kimani Vidal did the damage that mattered: 95 yards on 25 carries and a touchdown, the clock-eating kind of workload that turns a lead into a formality. McConkey was the standout skill player on the day regardless of position: four catches for 107 yards and a score, better than 25 yards a catch on limited volume.

Coming in, Alphr's model had Los Angeles as 53 percent favourites and picked them to win by 1.3 points on a projected combined total of 46. The win call landed. The margin didn't, not by a distance: Pittsburgh's actual defeat was 15 points, not 1. Both teams arrived on similar recent form, three wins apiece in their last five, and the pre-match ratings had Los Angeles only modestly ahead across most position groups, stronger at quarterback and in the receiving corps, weaker in the secondary and against the pass rush. On the night, none of those small edges mattered as much as the turnover column and the widening EPA gap that had opened up by the middle of the fourth quarter.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2 | 10 | 3 | 10 | 25 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| **335** | Total Yards | 234 |
| **220** | Passing Yards | 161 |
| **115** | Rushing Yards | 73 |
| **25** | First Downs | 16 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 2 |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| **-7.7** | Offensive EPA | -18.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Chargers to win at 53% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 1.3 but the actual margin was 15 points. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Rogers officiated this match (92 career games). The combined score of 35 points was 11 points below Brad Rogers's career average of 46. Los Angeles Chargers bucked the trend, Pittsburgh Steelers historically win 83% of games under Brad Rogers, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.62 (edge -8.4%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Los Angeles Chargers and Pittsburgh Steelers. The model can't split them, landing on Los Angeles Chargers at 53%.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Los Angeles Chargers by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 46. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Pittsburgh Steelers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Chargers took the most recent meeting 25-10 in 2025 Week 10.

Los Angeles Chargers went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 21.6 points for and 20.0 against.

Pittsburgh Steelers went 10-7 in 2025 so far, 4-4 away, averaging 23.4 points for and 22.8 against.

Justin Herbert starts under centre for Los Angeles Chargers, Aaron Rodgers for Pittsburgh Steelers, with Jim Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Chargers favourites, Los Angeles Chargers $1.62 and Pittsburgh Steelers $2.36, with the spread at Los Angeles Chargers -3 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Los Angeles Chargers 5 · Pittsburgh Steelers 7 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Chargers 25-10 (2025) |
| Los Angeles Chargers 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 home |
| Los Angeles Chargers scoring | 21.6 for · 20.0 against |
| Pittsburgh Steelers 2025 so far | 10-7 · 4-4 away |
| Pittsburgh Steelers scoring | 23.4 for · 22.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Justin Herbert · Aaron Rodgers |
| Head coaches | Jim Harbaugh · Mike Tomlin |
| Market | Los Angeles Chargers $1.62 · Pittsburgh Steelers $2.36 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Chargers -3 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Brad Rogers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Pittsburgh Steelers

**Brad Rogers** — 92 career games since 2020.

| Team | Record under Brad Rogers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | 2W–1L | 67% |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 5W–1L | 83% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Rogers officiates, Pittsburgh Steelers have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than Los Angeles Chargers's 2 from 3 (67%). Small sample (3 games for Los Angeles Chargers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Los Angeles Chargers | Stat | Pittsburgh Steelers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.4pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 23.6pts |
| 1.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Chargers | W5 L · W6 W · W7 L · W8 W · W9 W | 25.4 |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | W4 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 L · W9 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Chargers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Los Angeles Chargers | 25 – 10 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2024 | W3 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 20 – 10 | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 2021 | W11 | Los Angeles Chargers | 41 – 37 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2019 | W6 | Los Angeles Chargers | 17 – 24 | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 2018 | W13 | Pittsburgh Steelers | 30 – 33 | Los Angeles Chargers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at SoFi Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Los Angeles Chargers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Quentin Johnston | WR | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 7/20g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.25 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Keenan Allen | WR | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 14/33g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.05 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ladd McConkey | WR | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/13g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.95 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| – | Kimani Vidal | RB | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 29% ✓ Scored | 🏉 51' |
| – | Oronde Gadsden II | TE | 2 in 7g | 2/7g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/4g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Justin Herbert | QB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 9/45g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Tre Harris | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Derius Davis | WR | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/20g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaret Patterson | RB | 0 in 2g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Trayveon Williams | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tucker Fisk | TE | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Conklin | TE | 0 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/4g | 12% | — | — |

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | DK Metcalf | WR | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylen Warren | RB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenny Gainwell | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/2g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Pat Freiermuth | TE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Austin III | WR | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Jonnu Smith | TE | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Ben Skowronek | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/20g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Connor Heyward | RB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Washington | TE | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Roman Wilson | WR | 1 in 5g | 1/5g (0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 57' |
| – | Aaron Rodgers | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Kaleb Johnson | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ke'Shawn Williams | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trey Sermon | RB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Pittsburgh Steelers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Jaylen Warren 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ DK Metcalf 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Steelers: 9 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Wilson

**Los Angeles Chargers** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Quentin Johnston 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Keenan Allen 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Ladd McConkey — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Kimani Vidal — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Chargers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Los Angeles Chargers 1542 · Pittsburgh Steelers 1531 · ELO difference: 11 in favour of Los Angeles Chargers

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Los Angeles Chargers | Pittsburgh Steelers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 60 | Los Angeles Chargers +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 62 | 56 | Los Angeles Chargers +6 |
| Backfield | 50 | 49 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 60 | Even |
| Secondary | 50 | 55 | Pittsburgh Steelers +5 |
| Special Teams | 73 | 74 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Chargers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Pittsburgh Steelers |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Los Angeles Chargers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r10-los-angeles-chargers-v-pittsburgh-steelers
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-10 01:20 UTC (latest tip update)