# Indianapolis Colts v Atlanta Falcons — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 31 – 25 Atlanta Falcons

_Indianapolis Colts rally to gallop past Atlanta Falcons._

Half time: 13 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 77% / Atlanta Falcons 23% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 01:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Jonathan Taylor (7' Tipped ⚡), Alec Pierce (10' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (54' Tipped ⚡), Jonathan Taylor (57' Tipped ⚡) · Atlanta Falcons: Tyler Allgeier (9'), Drake London (27' Tipped ⚡), Tyler Allgeier (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 77% | Won |
| Atlanta Falcons | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Atlanta Falcons Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 01:30 am_

Indianapolis Colts 31–25 Atlanta Falcons in NFL Week 10 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jonathan Taylor's third touchdown of the day came in overtime, and that was the one that actually mattered. Everything before it was the two sides trading punches. Indianapolis Colts led 22-17 with 6:16 to go, Atlanta Falcons hit back through Tyler Allgeier to snatch a 23-22 lead, and the whole thing was locked at 25-25 by the end of regulation. Taylor settled it in the extra period. Final score: Indianapolis Colts 31, Atlanta Falcons 25.

Go back further and this was never a laugher, even though the stat sheet says it should have been. Indianapolis Colts piled up 578 total yards to Atlanta Falcons' 317, ran for 323 of them, and finished plus-15.3 in offensive EPA, 11.3 to minus-4. That's not a competitive gap. It's the kind of number that usually ends a game by the third quarter, not overtime.

Two things kept Atlanta Falcons breathing. Their pass rush got home seven times against Daniel Jones's three sacks conceded, and Indianapolis Colts coughed the ball up twice to Atlanta Falcons's one. Against a team getting outgained by 261 yards, that's exactly the kind of margin that turns a rout into a nail-biter. It very nearly did.

Taylor was the story regardless of the finish. 244 yards on 32 carries and three touchdowns, with the backfield mismatch (84 to 70 in the pre-match ratings) showing up almost carry by carry. Alec Pierce chipped in the other Colts touchdown. Jones was tidy without being spectacular, 19 of 26 for 255 yards, one touchdown, one interception, letting the ground game do the heavy lifting on a night 56% of Indianapolis Colts' offence came from rushing yards alone.

Atlanta Falcons had their moments too. Drake London was the best receiver on the field regardless of jersey, six catches for 104 yards and a touchdown, and Allgeier's two scores kept the Falcons in touching distance until the very end. Michael Penix Jr went 12 of 28 for 177 yards and a touchdown, which is a fine return given how often he was under pressure himself, but it's a hard night to move the ball when your defence is giving up 578 yards on the other side.

The form lines pointed this way before kickoff. Indianapolis Colts came in four wins from five, averaging 33.4 points a game, Atlanta Falcons had lost three of their last five and were sitting on a minus-3.6 average margin. Alphr's model had Indianapolis Colts at 77% to win with a 4.4-point edge on a combined total of 50. The lean was right, the margin landed close at 6 points, and the total came in at 56, within the model's range but not by much given how the sack count and turnovers dragged against the favourite all night.

Wins and misses, all of it. The model called the winner and got within striking distance on the numbers, but overtime footy has a way of making even a 261-yard advantage look like it was never quite settled. On this occasion, the better team still found a way to make it count.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 13 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 6 | 31 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 0 | 25 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| **578** | Total Yards | 317 |
| **255** | Passing Yards | 177 |
| **323** | Rushing Yards | 140 |
| **35** | First Downs | 30 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **7** |
| **11.3** | Offensive EPA | -4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Indianapolis Colts by 4.4 vs the actual margin of 6 points. Total score prediction of 50 was close to the actual 56, within 6 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Indianapolis Colts's victory aligns with Clete Blakeman's historical trend, Indianapolis Colts have a 77% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.32 (edge +1.0%) — model probability 76.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 4 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Indianapolis Colts here: 77% to see off Atlanta Falcons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Indianapolis Colts sit 124 ELO points clear, 1545 to 1421. Form leans Indianapolis Colts' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Atlanta Falcons.

Indianapolis Colts own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Secondary. The margin model has Indianapolis Colts by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 50. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Indianapolis Colts to win, not to win big.

Indianapolis Colts have won 6 of the last 8 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 31-25 in 2025 Week 10.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Atlanta Falcons went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 20.8 points for and 23.6 against.

Daniel Jones starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, Michael Penix Jr. for Atlanta Falcons, with Shane Steichen and Raheem Morris calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Indianapolis Colts $1.32 and Atlanta Falcons $3.50, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -6.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Indianapolis Colts 6 · Atlanta Falcons 2 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 31-25 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Atlanta Falcons 2025 so far | 8-9 · 4-5 away |
| Atlanta Falcons scoring | 20.8 for · 23.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Michael Penix Jr. |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Raheem Morris |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $1.32 · Atlanta Falcons $3.50 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -6.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Indianapolis Colts

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 10W–3L | 77% |
| Atlanta Falcons | 7W–8L | 47% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Indianapolis Colts have won 10 of 13 games (77%), significantly stronger than Atlanta Falcons's 7 from 15 (47%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Atlanta Falcons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 33.4pts | Avg Score | 20.2pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| 13.8pts | Avg Margin | -3.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W5 W · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 L | 33.4 |
| Atlanta Falcons | W4 W · W6 W · W7 L · W8 L · W9 L | 20.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Indianapolis Colts | 31 – 25 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2023 | W16 | Atlanta Falcons | 29 – 10 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2019 | W3 | Indianapolis Colts | 27 – 24 | Atlanta Falcons |
| 2015 | W11 | Atlanta Falcons | 21 – 24 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2011 | W9 | Indianapolis Colts | 7 – 31 | Atlanta Falcons |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | 14 in 9g | 15/10g (1·0·1·3·0·3·1·3·3·0) | 1/1g | 38/39g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.37 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.00 AI 13% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 54' 57' |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 12/45g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 40% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 4/5g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | 4 in 9g | 4/9g (0·0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 36% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/1g | 5/21g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Ameer Abdullah | RB | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/5g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/28g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 35% ✓ Scored | 🏉 10' |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/16g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/36g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Laquon Treadwell | WR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/48g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Goodson | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/10g | 6% | — | — |

**Atlanta Falcons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Drake London | WR | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·1·1·0·3) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 27' |
| – | Bijan Robinson | RB | 4 in 8g | 8/10g (2·2·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.76 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Allgeier | RB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 9' 59' |
| – | Kyle Pitts | TE | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Michael Penix Jr. | QB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Charlie Woerner | TE | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Darnell Mooney | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | David Sills | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Feleipe Franks | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jamal Agnew | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/3g | 12% | — | — |
| – | KhaDarel Hodge | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Atlanta Falcons** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Bijan Robinson 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Drake London 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 5 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Falcons: 4 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Allgeier

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (9 rush · 1 pass) · model 61% · **scored Q1, Q4, Q5**
- ⚡ Michael Pittman 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 40% · no TD
- ⚡ Tyler Warren — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- ⚡ Alec Pierce — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Colts: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1545 · Atlanta Falcons 1421 · ELO difference: 124 in favour of Indianapolis Colts

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Atlanta Falcons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 62 | 48 | Indianapolis Colts +14 |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 55 | Indianapolis Colts +8 |
| Backfield | 84 | 70 | Indianapolis Colts +14 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 62 | 55 | Indianapolis Colts +7 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 65 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Indianapolis Colts |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-09 14:30 UTC (latest tip update)