# Houston Texans v Jacksonville Jaguars — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Houston Texans 36 – 29 Jacksonville Jaguars

_Houston Texans roar back to wrangle Jacksonville Jaguars from 10 down._

Half time: 10 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Houston Texans 43% / Jacksonville Jaguars 57% · NRG Stadium · Mon, 10 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Houston Texans: Woody Marks (29' Tipped ⚡), Jayden Higgins (48'), Dalton Schultz (53' Tipped ⚡), Davis Mills (60'), Sheldon Rankins (60') · Jacksonville Jaguars: Parker Washington (7'), Parker Washington (18'), Travis Etienne (44' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 57% | Lost |
| Houston Texans | 43% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Houston Texans vs Jacksonville Jaguars Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 10 Nov 2025, 05:00 am_

Houston Texans 36–29 Jacksonville Jaguars in NFL Week 10 at NRG Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Jacksonville did most things right for the first three quarters. Parker Washington scored twice inside the opening twenty minutes, the second try arriving with 12:01 left in the second quarter to make it 16-0. Travis Etienne added a third with 1:37 gone in the third, stretching it to 29-10. At half-time the Jaguars led 20-10, and by the end of the third quarter it was still their game, 29-10 on the board and Houston looking beaten.

Then it fell apart. Houston Texans scored four times in the fourth quarter alone, through Jayden Higgins, Dalton Schultz, Davis Mills and Steven Rankins, and ran out 36-29 winners at NRG Stadium. Jacksonville's fingerprints are all over how that happened. Two turnovers to Houston's one, a defence that let Davis Mills pick it apart for 292 yards, and a pass rush that got home just twice while Houston's front line got there five times. Offensive EPA told the same story: Houston finished at plus 5.3, Jacksonville at minus 13.2. That's not a close game statistically, even if the scoreboard spent three quarters saying otherwise.

The yardage gap backs it up. Houston out-gained Jacksonville 422 to 252 for the night, with 292 of that through the air and 130 on the ground. Jacksonville managed 158 passing and 94 rushing, and finished with 20 first downs to Houston's 42. That's a lot of moving the ball without much to show for it once the fourth quarter hit.

Through the air, Davis Mills went 27 from 45 for 292 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Trevor Lawrence was tidier on fewer attempts, 13 from 23 for 158 yards, one touchdown and one pick, but he wasn't asked to do enough work early and had no answer once Houston's defence started getting after him. Nico Collins was the standout target on either side, hauling in seven catches for 136 yards.

On the ground, Woody Marks led all rushers with 63 yards on 14 carries and a touchdown, the score that got Houston on the board late in the second quarter to make it 20-9. It wasn't a huge rushing night for either side, Houston's 130 yards to Jacksonville's 94, but Marks' touchdown mattered more than the raw numbers suggest given how the fourth quarter played

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 0 | 10 | 0 | 26 | 36 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 10 | 10 | 9 | 0 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Houston Texans | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| **422** | Total Yards | 252 |
| **292** | Passing Yards | 158 |
| **130** | Rushing Yards | 94 |
| **42** | First Downs | 20 |
| **1** | Turnovers | 2 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **5.3** | Offensive EPA | -13.2 |

**Model Report Card**

Houston Texans defied the model's 57% prediction for Jacksonville Jaguars, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.2 but the actual margin was 7 points. The game's 65 points came in 31 points higher than the predicted 34. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Moore officiated this match (15 career games). The combined score of 65 points was 15 points above Alex Moore's career average of 50. Houston Texans bucked the trend, Jacksonville Jaguars historically win 100% of games under Alex Moore, but couldn't convert that edge today. Houston Texans's home victory fits Alex Moore's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.87 (edge +3.3%) — model probability 56.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 8 · Predicted total: 34

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Jacksonville Jaguars are the call at 57%, but Houston Texans stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Houston Texans sit 88 ELO points clear, 1537 to 1450, so the model is backing Jacksonville Jaguars against the ratings gap.

On paper Houston Texans shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Jacksonville Jaguars, which says Quarterback and Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Jacksonville Jaguars by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 34. Lean Jacksonville Jaguars, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Houston Texans have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Houston Texans took the most recent meeting 36-29 in 2025 Week 10.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 at home, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Jacksonville Jaguars went 13-4 in 2025 so far, 6-2 away, averaging 27.9 points for and 19.8 against.

C.J. Stroud starts under centre for Houston Texans, Trevor Lawrence for Jacksonville Jaguars, with DeMeco Ryans and Liam Coen calling the shots.

The market has Jacksonville Jaguars favourites, Houston Texans $1.95 and Jacksonville Jaguars $1.87, with the spread at Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 and the total at 37.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Houston Texans 9 · Jacksonville Jaguars 3 |
| Last meeting | Houston Texans 36-29 (2025) |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 home |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Jacksonville Jaguars 2025 so far | 13-4 · 6-2 away |
| Jacksonville Jaguars scoring | 27.9 for · 19.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | C.J. Stroud · Trevor Lawrence |
| Head coaches | DeMeco Ryans · Liam Coen |
| Market | Houston Texans $1.95 · Jacksonville Jaguars $1.87 |
| Spread | Jacksonville Jaguars -1.5 · total 37.5 |
| Referee | Alex Moore |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Jacksonville Jaguars

**Alex Moore** — 15 career games since 2025.

| Team | Record under Alex Moore | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | 0W–0L | 0% |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 1W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 49.7 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Alex Moore officiates, Jacksonville Jaguars have won 1 of 1 games (100%), significantly stronger than Houston Texans's 0 from 0 (0%). Games average 49.7 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Houston Texans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Houston Texans | Stat | Jacksonville Jaguars |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 14.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| 12.0pts | Avg Margin | -5.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Houston Texans | W4 W · W5 W · W7 L · W8 W · W9 L | 26.0 |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | W4 W · W5 W · W6 L · W7 L · W9 W | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Houston Texans | 36 – 29 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2025 | W3 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 17 – 10 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W13 | Jacksonville Jaguars | 20 – 23 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W4 | Houston Texans | 24 – 20 | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 2023 | W12 | Houston Texans | 21 – 24 | Jacksonville Jaguars |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at NRG Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Nico Collins | WR | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 18/31g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 25% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/8g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/4g | 25% | — | 🏉 48' |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Braxton Berrios | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.25 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 5/22g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 53' |
| – | Dameon Pierce | RB | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/19g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Davis Mills | QB | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/20g | 4% | — | 🏉 60' |

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Trevor Lawrence | QB | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Bhayshul Tuten | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| – | Travis Etienne | RB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/3g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 44' |
| – | Parker Washington | WR | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 30% | — | 🏉 7' 18' |
| – | Dyami Brown | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Austin Trammell | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Johnny Mundt | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | LeQuint Allen Jr. | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tim Jones | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Jacksonville Jaguars** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Travis Etienne 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q3**
- Rest of the Jaguars: 12 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: P.Washington

**Houston Texans** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Nico Collins 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Nick Chubb 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Woody Marks 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 2 pass) · model 25% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Dalton Schultz — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Christian Kirk — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Higgins, D.Mills, S.Rankins

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Houston Texans hold the ELO advantage (1537 vs 1450), but the market favours Jacksonville Jaguars (@1.87). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Houston Texans 1537 · Jacksonville Jaguars 1450 · ELO difference: 88 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Houston Texans | Jacksonville Jaguars | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 49 | Jacksonville Jaguars +8 |
| Receiving Corps | 66 | 41 | Houston Texans +25 |
| Backfield | 44 | 53 | Jacksonville Jaguars +9 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 54 | Even |
| Secondary | 61 | 51 | Houston Texans +10 |
| Special Teams | 58 | 56 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Jacksonville Jaguars |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Jacksonville Jaguars predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 34 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-09 18:00 UTC (latest tip update)