# Green Bay Packers v Philadelphia Eagles — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 7 – 10 Philadelphia Eagles

_Philadelphia Eagles soar past Green Bay Packers in a tight one._

Half time: 0 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 78% / Philadelphia Eagles 22% · Lambeau Field · Tue, 11 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Josh Jacobs (55' Tipped ⚡) · Philadelphia Eagles: DeVonta Smith (50' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 78% | Lost |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.3 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Philadelphia Eagles Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Nov 2025, 12:15 pm_

Green Bay Packers 7–10 Philadelphia Eagles in NFL Week 10 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Nothing happened at Lambeau Field for the best part of three quarters, and then it all happened at once. Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles went into the fourth quarter locked at nil-all, only for Philadelphia to break the deadlock with a field goal to lead 3-0, then blow it open with a DeVonta Smith touchdown at the 10:42 mark to make it 9-0. Green Bay had five minutes and change to find an answer, and Josh Jacobs gave them one, punching in a touchdown at 5:54 to get within 6-10. That's as close as it got. Final score: Philadelphia Eagles 10, Green Bay Packers 7.

A three-point margin from a game that sat scoreless for 45 minutes is the sort of finish that makes the stat sheet worth a proper look, and this one earns it. Philadelphia outgained Green Bay 294 yards to 280, which is thin enough on its own, but the story is in the other columns. Green Bay actually won first downs 27 to 20, moved the chains plenty, and still walked away with nothing to show for long stretches of it. That's what happens when you cough it up twice to Philadelphia's one turnover, and when the pass rush gets home three times to none. Green Bay's offensive line simply didn't hold up, and every one of those sacks came at a cost the Packers couldn't afford in a game this tight.

The efficiency number tells you who actually played the sharper football: Philadelphia at +4.7 offensive EPA against Green Bay's -11.3 puts daylight between the two sides that the box score alone doesn't show. Green Bay racked up yards and downs without translating any of it into points until it mattered least.

Individually, Jordan Love threw for 176 yards on 20 of 36, workmanlike but without the touchdown to match it. Jalen Hurts was tidier, 15 of 26 for 183 and the one score, and didn't need to do much more than that. Josh Jacobs was the best story on the losing side, 74 yards on 21 carries and the touchdown that got Green Bay within a field goal, backing up a backfield rating that had them favoured 69 to 56 coming in. DeVonta Smith answered for Philadelphia with 4 catches for 69 yards and the touchdown that put his side in front for good, exactly the kind of night you'd expect from the receiving corps edge Philadelphia carried into this one, 67 to Green Bay's 51.

Green Bay came in with the better recent form on paper, three wins from five against Philadelphia's own three, and a healthier average margin, but they were doing it on eight days' rest to Philadelphia's fifteen. Whether that mattered late in a fourth quarter that decided everything is hard to say for certain, but it's not nothing.

Alphr's model had Green Bay favoured at 78 percent and didn't get the winner right, though it wasn't far off the shape of the result. The margin read of Philadelphia by 1.3 landed close to the actual 3-point gap, and the total came in miles under the predicted 44, with just 17 points on the board. Wins and misses, all of it. The Eagles ground out a defensive slog and made their one big passage in the fourth count for everything.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 0 | 0 | 3 | 7 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 280 | Total Yards | **294** |
| 176 | Passing Yards | **183** |
| 104 | Rushing Yards | **111** |
| **27** | First Downs | 20 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| 0 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| -11.3 | Offensive EPA | **-4.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Philadelphia Eagles defied the model's 78% prediction for Green Bay Packers, a notable upset. The margin model was sharp, predicting Philadelphia Eagles by 1.3 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 17 points came in 27 points lower than the predicted 44. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 45.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 17 points was 29 points below Clay Martin's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.91 (edge +25.1%) — model probability 77.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 78% to see off Philadelphia Eagles. The ratings say otherwise: Philadelphia Eagles sit 52 ELO points clear, 1667 to 1615, so the model is backing Green Bay Packers against the ratings gap.

On paper Philadelphia Eagles shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Rest Advantage. The model still sides with Green Bay Packers, which says Quarterback carry the most weight. The margin model has Philadelphia Eagles by 1.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Green Bay Packers to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Philadelphia Eagles taking the most recent 10-7 in 2025 Week 10.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Philadelphia Eagles went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-3 away, averaging 22.3 points for and 19.1 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Jalen Hurts for Philadelphia Eagles, with Matt LaFleur and Nick Sirianni calling the shots.

Philadelphia Eagles come in fresher, 15 days between games against 8.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.91 and Philadelphia Eagles $1.91, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -1.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 6 · Philadelphia Eagles 6 |
| Last meeting | Philadelphia Eagles 10-7 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Philadelphia Eagles 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-3 away |
| Philadelphia Eagles scoring | 22.3 for · 19.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Jalen Hurts |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Nick Sirianni |
| Rest | Green Bay Packers 8d · Philadelphia Eagles 15d |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.91 · Philadelphia Eagles $1.91 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -1.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 6W–3L | 67% |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 46.4 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Clay Martin, Green Bay Packers 6W–3L (67%) and Philadelphia Eagles 5W–3L (63%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Philadelphia Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 28.4pts | Avg Score | 26.2pts |
| 24.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.4pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | 1.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 15.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W4 D · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 L | 28.4 |
| Philadelphia Eagles | W4 W · W5 L · W6 L · W7 W · W8 W | 26.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Philadelphia Eagles lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W10 | Green Bay Packers | 7 – 10 | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2024 | WC | Philadelphia Eagles | 22 – 10 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W1 | Philadelphia Eagles | 34 – 29 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2022 | W12 | Philadelphia Eagles | 40 – 33 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2020 | W13 | Green Bay Packers | 30 – 16 | Philadelphia Eagles |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | 10 in 8g | 12/10g (1·1·1·1·0·2·2·2·1·1) | 2/3g | 12/14g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.75 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.75 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/25g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Christian Watson | WR | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 11/21g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/20g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/14g | 6% | — | — |

**Philadelphia Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Dallas Goedert | TE | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·2) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Saquon Barkley | RB | 6 in 8g | 9/10g (3·0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2) | 6/5g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 50% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jalen Hurts | QB | 5 in 8g | 9/10g (3·1·2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | A.J. Brown | WR | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·2) | 2/4g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| – | DeVonta Smith | WR | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' |
| – | Jahan Dotson | WR | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Grant Calcaterra | TE | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Kylen Granson | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Tank Bigsby | RB | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Will Shipley | RB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Gipson | WR | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Philadelphia Eagles** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Saquon Barkley 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 2 pass) · model 50% · no TD
- ⚡ Dallas Goedert 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 6 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ DeVonta Smith — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Jalen Hurts — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Eagles: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Green Bay Packers** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 8 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 0 pass) · model 55% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Romeo Doubs 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Packers: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1615 · Philadelphia Eagles 1667 · ELO difference: 52 in favour of Philadelphia Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Philadelphia Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 80 | 68 | Green Bay Packers +12 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 67 | Philadelphia Eagles +16 |
| Backfield | 69 | 56 | Green Bay Packers +13 |
| Pass Rush | 55 | 57 | Even |
| Secondary | 55 | 60 | Philadelphia Eagles +5 |
| Special Teams | 60 | 53 | Green Bay Packers +7 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Green Bay Packers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Philadelphia Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-11 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)