# Denver Broncos v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 10 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 10 – 7 Las Vegas Raiders

_Denver Broncos survive a scare against Las Vegas Raiders._

Half time: 7 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 95% / Las Vegas Raiders 5% · Empower Field at Mile High · Fri, 07 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Troy Franklin (28' Tipped ⚡) · Las Vegas Raiders: Ashton Jeanty (12' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 95% | Won |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 5% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 10, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 7 Nov 2025, 12:15 pm_

Denver Broncos 10–7 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 10 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos wanted the ball in their hands and the game moving one methodical step at a time. Las Vegas Raiders wanted the big strike, the explosive snap that turns a shootout their way. Neither team really got what they wanted, and Denver won 10-7 because they were better equipped to grind through the ugly version of the game that actually showed up.

The Raiders struck first, and it wasn't cheap. Ashton Jeanty's touchdown with 3:06 left in the first quarter put Las Vegas up 7-0, and for a team that came in 1-4 over their last five, that was about as good as it looked all night. Denver didn't answer until 2:45 remained in the second, when Troy Franklin's score levelled it at 7-7. From there the game just sat there. No more points changed hands until Denver found a field goal late in the third quarter to go 10-7, and that scoreboard never moved again.

That third-quarter kick was the whole match. Denver had the tools to force exactly that kind of margin: a pass rush that got home six times to Las Vegas's two, and a quarterback rating edge of 67 to 41 heading in that suggested Bo Nix would have the calmer night, even if the box score didn't fully agree. Nix went 16-of-28 for 150 yards, a touchdown and two picks. Geno Smith was 16-of-26 for 143 with one interception, tidier numbers on paper but without the finishing move to match Denver's field goal.

The yardage gap was modest, 234 to 217, and the first downs actually favoured Las Vegas 16-15. What separated the teams was what Denver did with their limited chances. Offensive EPA had the Broncos at minus 17.4 against the Raiders' minus 22.6, a 5.2 expected-points edge that says Denver's snaps were simply worth more, even in a stalemate. J.K. Dobbins led all rushers with 77 yards on 18 carries, the ball-control gears grinding down a Raiders defence that had been leaking 27.2 points a game over their last five.

Denver's turnover count actually worked against the read, coughing it up twice to the Raiders' one, and Nix's two interceptions should have made this more comfortable for Las Vegas than it was. It didn't, because Las Vegas couldn't turn a stingy defensive effort into anything more than seven points on the board. Jeanty's touchdown was their one moment of real ambition paying off, and after that the offence never generated the follow-up strike this scoreline suggests they needed.

Alphr's model had Denver at 1626 to Las Vegas's 1371, a 95% win probability and a projected 9-point margin. The Broncos won by 3, so the lean was right, the size wasn't quite there. The combined total was picked at 42; the two sides delivered 17, a defensive slog that undercut every projection about pace. Denver's recent form line of five straight wins against Las Vegas's five losses out of five held up as the more reliable signal than the raw numbers on the night.

Ball control beat ambition here, even when ambition landed the first blow. Denver just needed one more scoring drive than the Raiders could match, and a third-quarter field goal was enough to get there.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| **234** | Total Yards | 217 |
| **150** | Passing Yards | 143 |
| **84** | Rushing Yards | 74 |
| 15 | First Downs | **16** |
| 2 | Turnovers | **1** |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-17.4** | Offensive EPA | -22.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 95% probability. The predicted margin of 9.0 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 17 points came in 25 points lower than the predicted 42. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Bill Vinovich officiated this match (274 career games). The combined score of 17 points was 28 points below Bill Vinovich's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.20 (edge +11.3%) — model probability 94.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 95% to see off Las Vegas Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 255 ELO points clear, 1626 to 1371. Form leans Denver Broncos' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Las Vegas Raiders.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 9.0, with the two sides combining for about 42. Denver Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Las Vegas Raiders have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 24-17 in 2025 Week 14.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with Sean Payton and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.20 and Las Vegas Raiders $4.80, with the spread at Denver Broncos -9.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 4 · Las Vegas Raiders 8 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 24-17 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Pete Carroll |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.20 · Las Vegas Raiders $4.80 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -9.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Bill Vinovich |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Bill Vinovich** — 274 career games since 2004.

| Team | Record under Bill Vinovich | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 6W–11L | 35% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Bill Vinovich, Denver Broncos 6W–11L (35%) and Las Vegas Raiders 2W–4L (33%). Small sample (6 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 25.8pts | Avg Score | 15.8pts |
| 19.8pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 6.0pts | Avg Margin | -11.4pts |
| 4.0d | Rest Days | 4.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W5 W · W6 W · W7 W · W8 W · W9 W | 25.8 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W4 L · W5 L · W6 W · W7 L · W9 L | 15.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Denver Broncos lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W14 | Las Vegas Raiders | 17 – 24 | Denver Broncos |
| 2025 | W10 | Denver Broncos | 10 – 7 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2024 | W12 | Las Vegas Raiders | 19 – 29 | Denver Broncos |
| 2024 | W5 | Denver Broncos | 34 – 18 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W18 | Las Vegas Raiders | 27 – 14 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 6 in 9g | 6/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·1) | 0/0g | 5/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/12g | 16/43g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 46% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 0/2g | 5/12g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/2g | 5/12g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/17g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Marcedes Lewis | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Michael Bandy | WR | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 4% | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | 6 in 8g | 6/8g (1·0·0·3·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Kenny Pickett | QB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Raheem Mostert | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Ashton Jeanty 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 1 TD across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (4 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 46% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ RJ Harvey — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- ⚡ Troy Franklin — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Broncos: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1626 · Las Vegas Raiders 1371 · ELO difference: 255 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 67 | 41 | Denver Broncos +26 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 54 | Even |
| Backfield | 54 | 54 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 64 | 56 | Denver Broncos +8 |
| Secondary | 59 | 51 | Denver Broncos +8 |
| Special Teams | 58 | 49 | Denver Broncos +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 95%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-11-07 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)