# Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 13 – 17 San Francisco 49ers

_San Francisco 49ers hit back to stake a claim over Seattle Seahawks._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 62% / San Francisco 49ers 38% · Lumen Field · Mon, 08 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Zach Charbonnet (17' Tipped ⚡) · San Francisco 49ers: George Kittle (12'), Jake Tonges (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 62% | Lost |
| San Francisco 49ers | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

Seattle Seahawks 13–17 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Week 1 at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seventeen and seven tenths. That's the gap between San Francisco's offensive EPA of 7.9 and Seattle's minus 9.8, and it's about as clean an explanation as you'll get for a 17-13 scoreline that never actually felt like a rout. The 49ers were the better team snap for snap, they just couldn't quite turn it into the margin the stat suggests they deserved.

Seattle led at the break, 10-7, on the back of a Zach Charbonnet touchdown that answered George Kittle's early score. George Kittle got the 49ers moving inside the first quarter, Charbonnet levelled it up midway through the second, and Seattle nosed ahead by three at half-time despite getting outplayed in most categories that matter. It stayed a three-point game through the third quarter too, nobody troubling the scoreboard. Then Jake Tonges found the end zone with 1:44 left, and that was that.

The yardage tells the real story. San Francisco ran up 396 total yards to Seattle's 234, with 37 first downs to 18. That's not a close game by the tape, even if the scoreboard insisted otherwise for three quarters. Brock Purdy went 26-of-35 for 277 yards with 2 touchdowns and 2 interceptions, moving the ball at will even when the drives stalled. Sam Darnold was tidier by comparison, 16-of-23 for 150, but tidy doesn't outgain anyone.

Christian McCaffrey did the heavy lifting on the ground, 69 yards on 22 carries, grinding out the clock and setting up the shorter fields that eventually mattered. Seattle's response came through the air: Jaxon Smith-Njigba was the best player on the field regardless of side, 9 catches for 124 yards, and he's the reason this stayed a one-score game deep into the fourth rather than getting away from Seattle earlier.

Turnovers were even, 2 apiece, so that's not where this was decided. Sacks were even too, 1 each. Strip away the tackles-for-loss and the takeaways and you're left with the raw efficiency gap, and that's where the 49ers made their money. It matches the pre-match shape as well: San Francisco came in rated stronger at quarterback, 61 to 41, and in the receiving corps, 62 to 54. Seattle held the edges in the secondary and special teams, but a defence can only do so much when the other side is out-first-downing you two to one.

Form-wise, this was meant to go the other way. Seattle arrived 3-2 across their last five with a level average margin, San Francisco limping in at 1-4 having dropped four straight and conceding 28.2 a game. Alphr's model liked Seattle at 62 percent, with the ratings, 1526 to 1481, pointing to a wafer-thin margin of 0.2. On the numbers, this was supposed to be Seattle's game to lose, and San Francisco's late-season form made it look like the safer read.

The final margin, four points, actually landed close enough to what the model expected on paper. The problem was which side ended up on top. San Francisco's forwards and quarterback play from Purdy overrode a form line that said they shouldn't have been in it, and a Tonges touchdown with under two minutes left made sure Seattle's home crowd went quiet at the wrong time.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 7 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 17 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 234 | Total Yards | **396** |
| 150 | Passing Yards | **277** |
| 84 | Rushing Yards | **119** |
| 18 | First Downs | **37** |
| 2 | Turnovers | 2 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -9.8 | Offensive EPA | **7.9** |

**Model Report Card**

San Francisco 49ers defied the model's 62% prediction for Seattle Seahawks, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 0.2 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 15 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45. San Francisco 49ers's victory aligns with Shawn Hochuli's historical trend, San Francisco 49ers have a 43% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $2.14 (edge +15.0%) — model probability 61.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 0 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Seattle Seahawks are the call at 62%, but San Francisco 49ers stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 46 ELO points clear, 1526 to 1481. Seattle Seahawks closed last season the stronger side: 3 wins from their final 5 games to 1 for San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Pass Rush and Secondary. Lean Seattle Seahawks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 41-6 in 2025 the Divisional round.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Mike Macdonald and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

The market has San Francisco 49ers favourites, Seattle Seahawks $2.14 and San Francisco 49ers $1.74, with the spread at San Francisco 49ers -2.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 5 · San Francisco 49ers 7 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 41-6 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Kyle Shanahan |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $2.14 · San Francisco 49ers $1.74 |
| Spread | San Francisco 49ers -2.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 2W–6L | 25% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 3W–4L | 43% |

Avg total: 45.3 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Hochuli officiates, San Francisco 49ers have won 3 of 7 games (43%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 2 from 8 (25%). Small sample (7 games for San Francisco 49ers).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 20.6pts | Avg Score | 23.8pts |
| 20.6pts | Avg Conceded | 28.2pts |
| 0.0pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 W · W18 W | 20.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L | 23.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | DIV | Seattle Seahawks | 41 – 6 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | W18 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 – 13 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2025 | W1 | Seattle Seahawks | 13 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W11 | San Francisco 49ers | 17 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W6 | Seattle Seahawks | 24 – 36 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | AJ Barner | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/8g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cody White | WR | no games | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | no games | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/11g | 0/4g | 46% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Arroyo | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | George Holani | RB | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jalen Milroe | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/17g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.55 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.75 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | no games | 7/10g (3·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 11/21g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 47% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Tory Horton | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/16g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.00 AI 34% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.75 AI 30% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | no games | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | no games | 9/10g (3·1·0·2·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/7g | 3/2g | 68% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $5.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | George Kittle | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 6/4g | 36% | — | 🏉 12' |
| – | Isaac Guerendo | RB | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/4g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/15g | 1/3g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 0 TDs in last 4 · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Brian Robinson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 30% · new club · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 13 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: G.Kittle, J.Tonges

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · no TD
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 34% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 6 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Seattle Seahawks hold the ELO advantage (1526 vs 1481), but the market favours San Francisco 49ers (@1.74). The model sides with ELO, Seattle Seahawks predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1526 · San Francisco 49ers 1481 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 41 | 61 | San Francisco 49ers +20 |
| Receiving Corps | 54 | 62 | San Francisco 49ers +8 |
| Backfield | 52 | 52 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 59 | 55 | Even |
| Secondary | 62 | 49 | Seattle Seahawks +13 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 50 | Seattle Seahawks +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Seattle Seahawks favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-07 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)