# New Orleans Saints v Arizona Cardinals — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New Orleans Saints 13 – 20 Arizona Cardinals

_Arizona Cardinals hold off a fast-finishing New Orleans Saints._

Half time: 10 – 17 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New Orleans Saints 19% / Arizona Cardinals 81% · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — New Orleans Saints: Alvin Kamara (16' Tipped ⚡) · Arizona Cardinals: Harrison (20'), James Conner (30' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals | 81% | Won |
| New Orleans Saints | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 10.9 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Orleans Saints vs Arizona Cardinals Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

New Orleans Saints 13–20 Arizona Cardinals in NFL Week 1 at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Three touchdowns in the second quarter decided this one, and New Orleans only got one of them. Arizona Cardinals won 20-13 at the Mercedes-Benz Superdome, and the game was shaped entirely in that middle stretch before half-time.

It started tight. Arizona led 3-0 after the first quarter, nothing flash about it. Then the Saints struck through Alvin Kamara to go up 6-3 with 14:26 left in the half, and for a moment it looked like New Orleans might nick this. It didn't last. Marvin Harrison Jr. answered to make it 7-9, and with 32 seconds left before the break James Conner went over to push Arizona out to 10-16. Two touchdowns to one in the space of a quarter, and the Cardinals walked into the sheds up 17-10. That was the ball game, really. Arizona added a field goal through the third to make it 20-10, and the Saints spent the fourth quarter chasing a gap that never closed, a late field goal the only thing they had to show for it.

The scoreboard doesn't match the stat sheet, and that's the interesting bit. New Orleans actually outgained Arizona, 321 yards to 309, and led first downs 29-27. Spencer Rattler threw for 214 on 27 of 46, Kyler Murray for 163 on 21 of 29 with two touchdowns. The Saints' pass rush also did its job, getting home five times to Arizona's one. On paper, that's a performance that should win more often than it loses.

It didn't, because Arizona's offensive EPA sat at 2.7 against New Orleans's minus 3.1. Yards without touchdowns is just a longer walk to the same result, and Arizona's went further. Conner and Harrison did the finishing, Kamara did his for the Saints, but one score isn't three.

The ground game told a similar story. Arizona ran for 146 to New Orleans's 107, and Trey Benson led all rushers with 69 yards on just 8 carries, seven and a bit a pop. That backfield edge was flagged well before kickoff, with Arizona rated 65 to New Orleans's 44 there, and it showed up when it mattered. Juwan Johnson was the one bright spot through the air for New Orleans, 8 catches for 76 yards, but a strong receiving day from one man wasn't going to offset a quarterback rating gap of 34 to 57 heading in.

Form lines had this pegged too. Arizona came in 2-3 across their last five with an average margin of plus 2.8, New Orleans 1-4 at minus 11. Neither team was flying, but Arizona were at least breaking even on the ledger.

Alphr's model had Arizona at 1462 to New

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 0 | 10 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 3 | 14 | 3 | 0 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| **321** | Total Yards | 309 |
| **214** | Passing Yards | 163 |
| 107 | Rushing Yards | **146** |
| **29** | First Downs | 27 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| -3.1 | Offensive EPA | **2.7** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Arizona Cardinals to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Arizona Cardinals by 10.9 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Scott Novak officiated this match (111 career games). The combined score of 33 points was 12 points below Scott Novak's career average of 45. Arizona Cardinals bucked the trend, New Orleans Saints historically win 43% of games under Scott Novak, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $1.37 (edge +8.2%) — model probability 81.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 11 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Arizona Cardinals here: 81% to see off New Orleans Saints. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Arizona Cardinals sit 41 ELO points clear, 1462 to 1421. Arizona Cardinals closed last season the stronger side: 2 wins from their final 5 games to 1 for New Orleans Saints.

Arizona Cardinals own the matchup too, leading 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Recent Form. The margin model has Arizona Cardinals by 10.9, with the two sides combining for about 45. Arizona Cardinals to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

New Orleans Saints have won 6 of the last 11 between these two, and Arizona Cardinals took the most recent meeting 20-13 in 2025 Week 1.

New Orleans Saints went 6-11 in 2025 so far, 3-5 at home, averaging 18.0 points for and 22.5 against.

Arizona Cardinals went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-7 away, averaging 20.9 points for and 28.7 against.

Spencer Rattler starts under centre for New Orleans Saints, Kyler Murray for Arizona Cardinals, with Kellen Moore and Jonathan Gannon calling the shots.

The market has Arizona Cardinals favourites, New Orleans Saints $3.20 and Arizona Cardinals $1.37, with the spread at Arizona Cardinals -6 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | New Orleans Saints 6 · Arizona Cardinals 5 |
| Last meeting | Arizona Cardinals 20-13 (2025) |
| New Orleans Saints 2025 so far | 6-11 · 3-5 home |
| New Orleans Saints scoring | 18.0 for · 22.5 against |
| Arizona Cardinals 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-7 away |
| Arizona Cardinals scoring | 20.9 for · 28.7 against |
| Quarterbacks | Spencer Rattler · Kyler Murray |
| Head coaches | Kellen Moore · Jonathan Gannon |
| Market | New Orleans Saints $3.20 · Arizona Cardinals $1.37 |
| Spread | Arizona Cardinals -6 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Scott Novak |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours New Orleans Saints

**Scott Novak** — 111 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Scott Novak | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | 3W–4L | 43% |
| Arizona Cardinals | 1W–7L | 13% |

Avg total: 45.5 pts · Home win %: 47% · Home bias: Leans away

When Scott Novak officiates, New Orleans Saints have won 3 of 7 games (43%), significantly stronger than Arizona Cardinals's 1 from 8 (13%). Small sample (7 games for New Orleans Saints).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New Orleans Saints | Stat | Arizona Cardinals |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 23.4pts | Avg Conceded | 24.0pts |
| -11.0pts | Avg Margin | 2.8pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New Orleans Saints | W14 W · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L | 12.4 |
| Arizona Cardinals | W14 L · W15 W · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Arizona Cardinals lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W1 | New Orleans Saints | 13 – 20 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2022 | W7 | Arizona Cardinals | 42 – 34 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2019 | W8 | New Orleans Saints | 31 – 9 | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2016 | W15 | Arizona Cardinals | 41 – 48 | New Orleans Saints |
| 2015 | W1 | Arizona Cardinals | 31 – 19 | New Orleans Saints |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Mercedes-Benz Superdome. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New Orleans Saints** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alvin Kamara | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 46/62g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 12% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 16' |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 6/10g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Chris Olave | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/17g | 25% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.35 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Devaughn Vele | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Devin Neal | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jack Stoll | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Juwan Johnson | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 9/28g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Kendre Miller | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 6/15g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.50 AI 31% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Spencer Rattler | QB | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Velus Jones Jr. | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

**Arizona Cardinals** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Elijah Higgins | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Emari Demercado | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Greg Dortch | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | James Conner | RB | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.57 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $4.60 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Kyler Murray | QB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Harrison Jr. | WR | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 26% ✓ Scored | — |
| – | Michael Wilson | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Tip Reiman | TE | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Trey Benson | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Trey McBride | TE | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.00 AI 35% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zay Jones | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Arizona Cardinals** (3 picks)
- ⚡ James Conner 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Trey McBride 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- ⚡ Marvin Harrison Jr. — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Cardinals: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**New Orleans Saints** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Alvin Kamara 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Rashid Shaheed 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · no TD
- ⚡ Chris Olave — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 24% · no TD
- Rest of the Saints: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — New Orleans Saints 1421 · Arizona Cardinals 1462 · ELO difference: 41 in favour of Arizona Cardinals

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New Orleans Saints | Arizona Cardinals | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 34 | 57 | Arizona Cardinals +23 |
| Receiving Corps | 50 | 58 | Arizona Cardinals +8 |
| Backfield | 44 | 65 | Arizona Cardinals +21 |
| Pass Rush | 53 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 60 | 55 | New Orleans Saints +5 |
| Special Teams | 57 | 68 | Arizona Cardinals +11 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New Orleans Saints |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Arizona Cardinals |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Arizona Cardinals predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-07 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)