# New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 13 – 20 Las Vegas Raiders

_Las Vegas Raiders fight back to pillage New England Patriots._

Half time: 10 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 38% / Las Vegas Raiders 62% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: DeMario Douglas (14') · Las Vegas Raiders: Tre Tucker (3'), Ashton Jeanty (36')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Las Vegas Raiders | 62% | Won |
| New England Patriots | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.2 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

New England Patriots 13–20 Las Vegas Raiders in NFL Week 1 at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Raiders 20, Patriots 13, and for most of the night the lead was a moving target rather than a settled thing. Las Vegas struck first through Tre Tucker with just over twelve minutes gone in the first quarter, then New England hit back before the quarter was out when DeMario Douglas got in, locking it at 7-7 heading into the second. The Patriots nudged ahead by half-time, 10-7, and for a team that had won just one of its last five, that lead was about as good as the night got.

It didn't survive the third quarter. Ashton Jeanty scored with 9:44 left to flip it back to Las Vegas, 13-10, and from there the Raiders never let go. They were out to 17-10 by the end of the quarter and closed it out 20-13. Once Jeanty's touchdown turned the margin, New England spent the rest of the game chasing a scoreboard that kept moving away from them.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard showed. Las Vegas outgained New England 418 yards to 347, most of it through the air: 362 passing yards against 287. The number that mattered most was efficiency. The Raiders finished at plus 12.1 in offensive EPA over the Patriots, the gap between an offence that moves the chains and one that stalls out. First downs told the same story, 37 for Las Vegas against 32 for New England. Turnovers were even at one each, so this wasn't decided by a giveaway. It was decided by who did more with the ball when they had it.

Geno Smith made the case for the Raiders himself: 24 of 34 for 362 yards, a touchdown and a pick. Brock Bowers did the damage on the end of it, five catches for 103 yards, the clear top target on either roster. Drake Maye wasn't far off the raw numbers, 30 of 46 for 287 yards and a score, but he threw an interception too and needed twelve more attempts than Smith to finish 75 yards short of him. That gap in attempts and yards is where the efficiency battle was lost.

New England's running game actually held its own, 60 yards to Las Vegas's 56, and the sack count was even at four apiece. None of it was enough to offset getting beaten through the air, and beaten on

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 13 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 7 | 0 | 10 | 3 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 347 | Total Yards | **418** |
| 287 | Passing Yards | **362** |
| **60** | Rushing Yards | 56 |
| 32 | First Downs | **37** |
| 1 | Turnovers | 1 |
| 4 | Sacks Made | 4 |
| -4.5 | Offensive EPA | **7.6** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Las Vegas Raiders to win at 62% probability. The predicted margin of 2.2 was reasonable against the actual 7-point result. The game's 33 points came in 15 points lower than the predicted 48. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ron Torbert officiated this match (150 career games). The combined score of 33 points was 13 points below Ron Torbert's career average of 46. Las Vegas Raiders's victory aligns with Ron Torbert's historical trend, Las Vegas Raiders have a 75% win rate under this referee. Despite Ron Torbert's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Las Vegas Raiders prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $2.30 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 62.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Las Vegas Raiders are the call at 62%, but New England Patriots stay live at 38%. Las Vegas Raiders closed last season the stronger side: 2 wins from their final 5 games to 1 for New England Patriots.

Las Vegas Raiders own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Las Vegas Raiders by 2.2, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Las Vegas Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 7 of the last 11 between these two, and Las Vegas Raiders took the most recent meeting 20-13 in 2025 Week 1.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Las Vegas Raiders went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 1-7 away, averaging 14.2 points for and 25.4 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, Geno Smith for Las Vegas Raiders, with Mike Vrabel and Pete Carroll calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.65 and Las Vegas Raiders $2.30, with the spread at New England Patriots -2.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 11) | New England Patriots 7 · Las Vegas Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Las Vegas Raiders 20-13 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Las Vegas Raiders 2025 so far | 3-14 · 1-7 away |
| Las Vegas Raiders scoring | 14.2 for · 25.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · Geno Smith |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · Pete Carroll |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.65 · Las Vegas Raiders $2.30 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -2.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | Ron Torbert |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Las Vegas Raiders

**Ron Torbert** — 150 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under Ron Torbert | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7W–3L | 70% |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Las Vegas Raiders hold a 5-point edge: 3W–1L (75%) vs New England Patriots's 7W–3L (70%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Las Vegas Raiders).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Las Vegas Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 17.2pts |
| 27.0pts | Avg Conceded | 20.2pts |
| -8.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W13 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W | 18.4 |
| Las Vegas Raiders | W14 L · W15 L · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L | 17.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Las Vegas Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W1 | New England Patriots | 13 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2023 | W6 | Las Vegas Raiders | 21 – 17 | New England Patriots |
| 2022 | W15 | Las Vegas Raiders | 30 – 24 | New England Patriots |
| 2020 | W3 | New England Patriots | 36 – 20 | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 2017 | W11 | Las Vegas Raiders | 8 – 33 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Antonio Gibson | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 1/9g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/14g | 13% | — | 🏉 14' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 10/32g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.80 AI 23% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $9.25 AI 24% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | no games | 5/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 14/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | no games | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Las Vegas Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alex Bachman | WR | no games | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Jeanty | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 36' |
| – | Brock Bowers | TE | no games | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.90 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dont'e Thornton Jr. | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Dylan Laube | RB | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Geno Smith | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Jack Bech | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jakobi Meyers | WR | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/1g | 6/28g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 28% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $15.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Justin Shorter | TE | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Michael Mayer | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Tre Tucker | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 3' |
| – | Zamir White | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Las Vegas Raiders** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Brock Bowers 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- ⚡ Jakobi Meyers 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Raiders: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Tucker, A.Jeanty

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 1 pass) · model 33% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Kayshon Boutte — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 24% · no TD
- ⚡ Hunter Henry — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 23% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Douglas

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Las Vegas Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1406 vs 1396), but the market favours New England Patriots (@1.65). The model sides with ELO, Las Vegas Raiders predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1396 · Las Vegas Raiders 1406 · ELO difference: 10 in favour of Las Vegas Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Las Vegas Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 44 | 54 | Las Vegas Raiders +10 |
| Receiving Corps | 60 | 54 | New England Patriots +6 |
| Backfield | 45 | 38 | New England Patriots +7 |
| Pass Rush | 54 | 59 | Las Vegas Raiders +5 |
| Secondary | 54 | 61 | Las Vegas Raiders +7 |
| Special Teams | 45 | 57 | Las Vegas Raiders +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Las Vegas Raiders |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Las Vegas Raiders predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-07 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)