# Indianapolis Colts v Miami Dolphins — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Indianapolis Colts 33 – 8 Miami Dolphins

_Indianapolis Colts put Miami Dolphins to the sword._

Half time: 20 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Indianapolis Colts 65% / Miami Dolphins 35% · Lucas Oil Stadium · Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Indianapolis Colts: Michael Pittman (15' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Jones (18'), Daniel Jones (50') · Miami Dolphins: De'Von Achane (54' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 65% | Won |
| Miami Dolphins | 35% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.6 predicted → 25 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Indianapolis Colts vs Miami Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2025, 03:00 am_

Indianapolis Colts 33–8 Miami Dolphins in NFL Week 1 at Lucas Oil Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Miami Dolphins shading it by 0.6 points, with Indianapolis Colts still the favourite to win at 65% probability. One of those calls aged fine. The other didn't survive first contact with Lucas Oil Stadium.

Final score: Indianapolis Colts 33, Miami Dolphins 8. A 25-point gap where the model saw a coin flip on the margin. The win probability held up, the number attached to it did not, and that's worth sitting with before getting into how it actually played out.

The scoreboard tells you this was one-way traffic from early. Colts led 3-0 after the first quarter, then put up 17 unanswered in the second: Michael Pittman's touchdown, followed roughly three minutes later by the first of Daniel Jones's two, and it was 20-0 at half-time. Indianapolis Colts added more in the third to lead 23-0 heading into the fourth, then Jones's second touchdown, with 10:16 left, made it 29-0. Miami Dolphins finally got on the board at 6:29 left in the fourth, De'Von Achane crossing to make it 30-6. From there the scoreboard ticked out to the 33-8 final. By that stage the only question was the margin, not the winner.

The pre-match ratings had Miami Dolphins with the better quarterback, 51 to 31, and Alphr's read leaned on that. Instead Daniel Jones went 22-of-29 for 272 yards and a touchdown, while Tua Tagovailoa managed 14-of-23 for 114 yards, one touchdown and two picks. Three turnovers for Miami against none for Indianapolis is the kind of number that overrides a quarterback rating on paper.

Where the model's positional read did hold up was the backfield. Indianapolis Colts were rated stronger there, 72 to

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 3 | 17 | 3 | 10 | 33 |
| Miami Dolphins | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **428** | Total Yards | 224 |
| **272** | Passing Yards | 146 |
| **156** | Rushing Yards | 78 |
| **39** | First Downs | 21 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **18.5** | Offensive EPA | -12.1 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Indianapolis Colts to win at 65% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.6 but the actual margin was 25 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 41, within 4 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Brad Allen officiated this match (190 career games). The 41-point combined total was right in line with Brad Allen's career average of 45. Indianapolis Colts bucked the trend, Miami Dolphins historically win 67% of games under Brad Allen, but couldn't convert that edge today. Indianapolis Colts's home victory fits Brad Allen's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.89 (edge +12.0%) — model probability 64.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Indianapolis Colts here: 65% to see off Miami Dolphins. The ratings say otherwise: Miami Dolphins sit 46 ELO points clear, 1496 to 1450, so the model is backing Indianapolis Colts against the ratings gap.

On paper Miami Dolphins shade it, ahead on 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Indianapolis Colts, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Indianapolis Colts to win, not to win big.

Indianapolis Colts have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Indianapolis Colts took the most recent meeting 33-8 in 2025 Week 1.

Indianapolis Colts went 8-9 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 27.4 points for and 24.2 against.

Miami Dolphins went 7-10 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 20.4 points for and 24.9 against.

Daniel Jones starts under centre for Indianapolis Colts, Tua Tagovailoa for Miami Dolphins, with Shane Steichen and Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

The market has Indianapolis Colts favourites, Indianapolis Colts $1.89 and Miami Dolphins $1.93, with the spread at Indianapolis Colts -1.5 and the total at 47.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Indianapolis Colts 9 · Miami Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Indianapolis Colts 33-8 (2025) |
| Indianapolis Colts 2025 so far | 8-9 · 6-3 home |
| Indianapolis Colts scoring | 27.4 for · 24.2 against |
| Miami Dolphins 2025 so far | 7-10 · 2-6 away |
| Miami Dolphins scoring | 20.4 for · 24.9 against |
| Quarterbacks | Daniel Jones · Tua Tagovailoa |
| Head coaches | Shane Steichen · Mike McDaniel |
| Market | Indianapolis Colts $1.89 · Miami Dolphins $1.93 |
| Spread | Indianapolis Colts -1.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Brad Allen |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Miami Dolphins

**Brad Allen** — 190 career games since 2014.

| Team | Record under Brad Allen | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | 4W–8L | 33% |
| Miami Dolphins | 8W–4L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Brad Allen officiates, Miami Dolphins have won 8 of 12 games (67%), significantly stronger than Indianapolis Colts's 4 from 12 (33%). Home teams win 56% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Indianapolis Colts | Stat | Miami Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.0pts | Avg Score | 22.6pts |
| 30.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -3.6pts | Avg Margin | 3.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Indianapolis Colts | W13 W · W15 L · W16 W · W17 L · W18 W | 27.0 |
| Miami Dolphins | W14 W · W15 L · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L | 22.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Indianapolis Colts lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W1 | Indianapolis Colts | 33 – 8 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2024 | W7 | Indianapolis Colts | 16 – 10 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2021 | W4 | Miami Dolphins | 17 – 27 | Indianapolis Colts |
| 2019 | W10 | Indianapolis Colts | 12 – 16 | Miami Dolphins |
| 2018 | W12 | Indianapolis Colts | 27 – 24 | Miami Dolphins |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lucas Oil Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Indianapolis Colts** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Adonai Mitchell | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Alec Pierce | WR | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 5/24g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.10 AI 29% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Andrew Ogletree | TE | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/13g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Anthony Gould | WR | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ashton Dulin | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/31g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Daniel Jones | QB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | 🏉 18' 50' |
| – | DJ Giddens | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jonathan Taylor | RB | no games | 8/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3·2·1) | 1/1g | 30/34g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.62 AI 55% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $4.75 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Josh Downs | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/16g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.25 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Michael Pittman | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 9/40g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 32% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| – | Mo Alie-Cox | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 8/45g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Warren | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Ulysses Bentley IV | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |

**Miami Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Alec Ingold | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| – | De'Von Achane | RB | no games | 9/10g (2·0·1·2·1·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 54' |
| – | Dee Eskridge | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Jaylen Waddle | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Julian Hill | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Malik Washington | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Nick Westbrook-Ikhine | WR | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/8g | 2/3g | 36% | 🎯 First TD $51.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Ollie Gordon II | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tanner Conner | TE | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tua Tagovailoa | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyreek Hill | WR | no games | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 36% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Zach Wilson | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Miami Dolphins** (2 picks)
- ⚡ De'Von Achane 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Tyreek Hill 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · no TD
- Rest of the Dolphins: 5 TDs across the team's last 5

**Indianapolis Colts** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Jonathan Taylor 🎯 — 7 TDs in last 5 (6 rush · 1 pass) · model 55% · no TD
- ⚡ Michael Pittman — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Josh Downs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Alec Pierce — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 29% · no TD
- Rest of the Colts: 3 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Jones

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Miami Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1496 vs 1450), but the market favours Indianapolis Colts (@1.89). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Indianapolis Colts 1450 · Miami Dolphins 1496 · ELO difference: 46 in favour of Miami Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Indianapolis Colts | Miami Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 31 | 51 | Miami Dolphins +20 |
| Receiving Corps | 46 | 49 | Even |
| Backfield | 72 | 61 | Indianapolis Colts +11 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 71 | Miami Dolphins +14 |
| Secondary | 54 | 59 | Miami Dolphins +5 |
| Special Teams | 65 | 53 | Indianapolis Colts +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Miami Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 65%** — Indianapolis Colts predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-07 17:00 UTC (latest tip update)