# Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Green Bay Packers 27 – 13 Detroit Lions

_Green Bay Packers bundle past Detroit Lions._

Half time: 17 – 3 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Green Bay Packers 72% / Detroit Lions 28% · Lambeau Field · Mon, 08 Sept, 06:25 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Green Bay Packers: Tucker Kraft (6'), Jayden Reed (22'), Josh Jacobs (52' Tipped ⚡) · Detroit Lions: Isaac TeSlaa (59')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 72% | Won |
| Detroit Lions | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.4 predicted → 14 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2025, 06:25 am_

Green Bay Packers 27–13 Detroit Lions in NFL Week 1 at Lambeau Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Green Bay Packers 27, Detroit Lions 13 at Lambeau Field. Have a look at the yardage before you file that away as comfortable: Detroit actually outgained Green Bay, 271 yards to 266, and led the first downs count 28 to 20. On paper this was a Lions offensive performance. On the scoreboard it wasn't close.

The gap is explained by three numbers that matter more than total yards ever will. Green Bay ran an offensive EPA of 7.6 against Detroit's minus 4, a swing of 11.6 expected points that tells you who was actually doing something useful with their snaps. Detroit turned it over once to Green Bay's zero. And the Packers' pass rush got home four times to none, the kind of pressure that turns a tidy stat line into a hollow one.

The scoring arc backs it up. Tucker Kraft opened it with 9:31 left in the first quarter, and Green Bay led 10-0 by the end of the term without Detroit troubling the board. Jayden Reed's touchdown with 8:39 left in the second put it at 16-3, and it was 17-3 at the break, a lead built entirely before half-time while Detroit's high-volume passing game produced next to nothing on the scoreboard. Detroit clawed it to 17-6 through three quarters, but Josh Jacobs put the game out of reach with 8:00 left in the fourth, making it 23-6. Isaac TeSlaa's score with a minute to go, capping it at 27-13, was too late to be anything but a formality.

Individually, Jordan Love had the tidier night: 16 of 22 for 188 yards and two touchdowns, no turnovers. Jared Goff threw for more, 225 yards on 31 of 39 with a touchdown, but also the game's only interception, and Sam LaPorta's 6 catches for 79 yards never turned into points until it stopped mattering. Jacobs led all rushers with 66 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown, part of a Green Bay ground game that ran for 78 yards against Detroit's 46, its own small story about who controlled the physical part of the contest.

None of this lines up with the pre-match shape. Detroit came in rated stronger at every skill position that usually decides these things: quarterback 80 to 49, receiving corps 86 to 53, backfield 80 to 61. They'd also won three of their last five to Green Bay's two, scoring at 35.6 points a game to Green Bay's 24.2. On raw form and talent, this was meant to be closer, maybe even a Lions night.

Alphr's model still had Green Bay as the likelier winner, 72 per cent, with an Elo edge of 1574 to 1631 and a projected margin of 8.4 on a combined total of 58. The margin read was honest, if anything a touch conservative against the actual 14-point spread. The total was the miss: 40 points delivered against a projected 58, 18 points light, because the pass rush and the turnover battle mattered more on the night than the talent gap the form line suggested. Wins and misses, all of it, and the scoreline still tells you less than the four numbers sitting underneath it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 10 | 7 | 0 | 10 | 27 |
| Detroit Lions | 0 | 3 | 3 | 7 | 13 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 266 | Total Yards | **271** |
| 188 | Passing Yards | **225** |
| **78** | Rushing Yards | 46 |
| 20 | First Downs | **28** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| **7.6** | Offensive EPA | -4 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Green Bay Packers to win at 72% probability. The predicted margin of 8.4 was reasonable against the actual 14-point result. The game's 40 points came in 18 points lower than the predicted 58. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clete Blakeman officiated this match (258 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 6 points below Clete Blakeman's career average of 46. Green Bay Packers's victory aligns with Clete Blakeman's historical trend, Green Bay Packers have a 67% win rate under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.83 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 72.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 8 · Predicted total: 58

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Green Bay Packers here: 72% to see off Detroit Lions. The ratings say otherwise: Detroit Lions sit 57 ELO points clear, 1631 to 1574, so the model is backing Green Bay Packers against the ratings gap. Detroit Lions closed last season the stronger side: 3 wins from their final 5 games to 2 for Green Bay Packers.

On paper Detroit Lions shade it, ahead on 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Green Bay Packers, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Green Bay Packers by 8.4, with the two sides combining for about 58. Green Bay Packers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Green Bay Packers taking the most recent 31-24 in 2025 Week 13.

Green Bay Packers went 9-7-1 in 2025 so far, 5-3 at home, averaging 23.0 points for and 21.2 against.

Detroit Lions went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 4-5 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 24.3 against.

Jordan Love starts under centre for Green Bay Packers, Jared Goff for Detroit Lions, with Matt LaFleur and Dan Campbell calling the shots.

The market has Green Bay Packers favourites, Green Bay Packers $1.83 and Detroit Lions $2.00, with the spread at Green Bay Packers -1.5 and the total at 48.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Green Bay Packers 6 · Detroit Lions 6 |
| Last meeting | Green Bay Packers 31-24 (2025) |
| Green Bay Packers 2025 so far | 9-7-1 · 5-3 home |
| Green Bay Packers scoring | 23.0 for · 21.2 against |
| Detroit Lions 2025 so far | 9-8 · 4-5 away |
| Detroit Lions scoring | 28.3 for · 24.3 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jordan Love · Jared Goff |
| Head coaches | Matt LaFleur · Dan Campbell |
| Market | Green Bay Packers $1.83 · Detroit Lions $2.00 |
| Spread | Green Bay Packers -1.5 · total 48.5 |
| Referee | Clete Blakeman |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Green Bay Packers

**Clete Blakeman** — 258 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Clete Blakeman | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | 12W–6L | 67% |
| Detroit Lions | 9W–11L | 45% |

Avg total: 46.3 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Clete Blakeman officiates, Green Bay Packers have won 12 of 18 games (67%), significantly stronger than Detroit Lions's 9 from 20 (45%).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Green Bay Packers | Stat | Detroit Lions |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 35.6pts |
| 17.2pts | Avg Conceded | 30.6pts |
| 7.0pts | Avg Margin | 5.0pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Green Bay Packers | W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · WC L | 24.2 |
| Detroit Lions | W15 L · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · DIV L | 35.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Green Bay Packers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W13 | Detroit Lions | 24 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2025 | W1 | Green Bay Packers | 27 – 13 | Detroit Lions |
| 2024 | W14 | Detroit Lions | 34 – 31 | Green Bay Packers |
| 2024 | W9 | Green Bay Packers | 14 – 24 | Detroit Lions |
| 2023 | W12 | Detroit Lions | 22 – 29 | Green Bay Packers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lambeau Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Green Bay Packers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Chris Brooks | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Dontayvion Wicks | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/17g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Emanuel Wilson | RB | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/2g | 3/12g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Jayden Reed | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/17g | 33% | — | 🏉 22' |
| – | John FitzPatrick | TE | no games | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Love | QB | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/20g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Josh Jacobs | RB | no games | 13/10g (0·1·3·1·3·1·1·1·1·1) | 6/4g | 7/10g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.70 AI 52% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $5.40 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' |
| – | Luke Musgrave | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Golden | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Romeo Doubs | WR | no games | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 6/21g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Savion Williams | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Tucker Kraft | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/16g | 25% | — | 🏉 6' |

**Detroit Lions** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Amon-Ra St. Brown | WR | no games | 6/10g (1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 2/4g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Craig Reynolds | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | David Montgomery | RB | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·1·2·1·0·1·0·0) | 8/11g | 4/6g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 42% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Isaac TeSlaa | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 59' |
| – | Jacob Saylors | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Jahmyr Gibbs | RB | no games | 14/10g (0·1·2·0·1·2·1·1·4·2) | 2/4g | 1/2g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.87 AI 53% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jameson Williams | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $17.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jared Goff | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Kalif Raymond | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Sam LaPorta | TE | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.30 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Detroit Lions** (5 picks)
- ⚡ Jahmyr Gibbs 🎯 — 10 TDs in last 5 (8 rush · 2 pass) · model 53% · no TD
- ⚡ David Montgomery 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 42% · no TD
- ⚡ Jameson Williams 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Amon-Ra St. Brown — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Sam LaPorta — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- Rest of the Lions: 2 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: I.TeSlaa

**Green Bay Packers** (1 pick)
- ⚡ Josh Jacobs 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 52% · **scored Q4**
- Rest of the Packers: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: T.Kraft, J.Reed

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Detroit Lions hold the ELO advantage (1631 vs 1574), but the market favours Green Bay Packers (@1.83). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Green Bay Packers 1574 · Detroit Lions 1631 · ELO difference: 57 in favour of Detroit Lions

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Green Bay Packers | Detroit Lions | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 49 | 80 | Detroit Lions +31 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 86 | Detroit Lions +33 |
| Backfield | 61 | 80 | Detroit Lions +19 |
| Pass Rush | 57 | 64 | Detroit Lions +7 |
| Secondary | 53 | 61 | Detroit Lions +8 |
| Special Teams | 66 | 62 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Detroit Lions |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Green Bay Packers predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 58 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-07 20:25 UTC (latest tip update)