# Denver Broncos v Tennessee Titans — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 20 – 12 Tennessee Titans

_Denver Broncos stampede past Tennessee Titans._

Half time: 10 – 9 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 75% / Tennessee Titans 25% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 08 Sept, 06:05 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton (30' Tipped ⚡), J.K. Dobbins (53' Tipped ⚡) · Tennessee Titans: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 75% | Won |
| Tennessee Titans | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.9 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Tennessee Titans Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2025, 06:05 am_

Denver Broncos 20–12 Tennessee Titans in NFL Week 1 at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Denver Broncos beat Tennessee Titans 20-12 at Empower Field at Mile High. Look at the yardage though, and 20-12 starts to feel generous to Tennessee. Denver ran up 327 total yards to 183, doubled them on the ground with 151 rushing yards to 71, and got home in the pass rush six times to one. An eight-point margin off a performance that lopsided is closer than it had any right to be.

The scoreboard tells you why it stayed tight for a while. Denver led 3-3 after the first quarter, nudged ahead 9-6 on a Courtland Sutton touchdown with 22 seconds left in the half, and took just a 10-9 edge into the break. Tennessee hung around into the third, trailing only 13-12 at the end of it. Then J.K. Dobbins scored with 7:43 to go in the fourth to make it 19-12, and that was the game.

Denver's problem all night was ball security, not execution. They lost the turnover battle 3 to 2, which is the one column where Tennessee actually came out ahead, and it's the reason the final margin sat at eight instead of something bigger given the yardage gap. Bo Nix threw two picks to go with his one touchdown, finishing 25 of 40 for 176 yards. Efficient, mostly, but not clean.

Everywhere else it was one-way traffic. Denver's offensive EPA was minus-12.2 against Tennessee's minus-22.6, a 10.4 gap in expected points per snap that lines up with the pre-game read on the two units. Denver's backfield rating (51 to Tennessee's 37) showed up exactly where you'd expect, with RJ Harvey ripping off 70 yards on just six carries and the Broncos leaning on the ground game for 46 percent of their total output.

Sutton was the standout on the day, six catches for 61 yards and the game's opening touchdown. He and Dobbins were the only two Broncos to find the end zone, and Tennessee's defence made sure it stayed that way for everyone else. Cam Ward went 12 of 28 for 112 yards for Tennessee, and the Titans never got into the end zone at all, an offence that had averaged 18 points across their last five now shut out where it matters most.

That form line was already grim. Tennessee arrived on a five-game losing streak, conceding an average of 25.6 points a game, and nothing here suggests that turns around soon. Denver, by contrast, came in with a losing week mixed among two wins in their last five and an average margin of plus-3.8, and the positional numbers pre-match, quarterback 68 to 50, pass rush 62 to 46, backed that up on the day.

Alphr's model had Denver favourites at 75 percent, with a predicted margin of 5.9 points. The actual margin landed at eight, close enough to call the read sharp. The total was the miss: the model expected 51 combined points, and the sides managed just 32. A defensive slog dressed up as a shootout prediction, and the shutout of Tennessee's offence is the main reason why.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 20 |
| Tennessee Titans | 3 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **327** | Total Yards | 183 |
| **176** | Passing Yards | 112 |
| **151** | Rushing Yards | 71 |
| **23** | First Downs | 12 |
| 3 | Turnovers | **2** |
| **6** | Sacks Made | 1 |
| **-12.2** | Offensive EPA | -22.6 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 75% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 5.9 vs the actual margin of 8 points. The game's 32 points came in 19 points lower than the predicted 51. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 32 points was 14 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 75.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 6 · Predicted total: 51

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 75% to see off Tennessee Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 179 ELO points clear, 1546 to 1368. Denver Broncos closed last season the stronger side: 2 wins from their final 5 games to 0 for Tennessee Titans.

Denver Broncos own the matchup too, leading 5 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 5.9, with the two sides combining for about 51. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Denver Broncos to win, not to win big.

Denver Broncos have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Denver Broncos took the most recent meeting 20-12 in 2025 Week 1.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Tennessee Titans went 3-14 in 2025 so far, 2-6 away, averaging 16.7 points for and 28.1 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Cam Ward for Tennessee Titans, with Sean Payton and Brian Callahan calling the shots.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.22 and Tennessee Titans $4.50, with the spread at Denver Broncos -8.5 and the total at 42.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Denver Broncos 6 · Tennessee Titans 4 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 20-12 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Tennessee Titans 2025 so far | 3-14 · 2-6 away |
| Tennessee Titans scoring | 16.7 for · 28.1 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Cam Ward |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Brian Callahan |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.22 · Tennessee Titans $4.50 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -8.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 4W–3L | 57% |
| Tennessee Titans | 4W–3L | 57% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alex Kemp, Denver Broncos 4W–3L (57%) and Tennessee Titans 4W–3L (57%). Small sample (7 games for Denver Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Tennessee Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 25.4pts | Avg Score | 18.0pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 25.6pts |
| 3.8pts | Avg Margin | -7.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W15 W · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · WC L | 25.4 |
| Tennessee Titans | W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 L | 18.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Tennessee Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W1 | Denver Broncos | 20 – 12 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2022 | W10 | Tennessee Titans | 17 – 10 | Denver Broncos |
| 2020 | W1 | Denver Broncos | 14 – 16 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2019 | W6 | Denver Broncos | 16 – 0 | Tennessee Titans |
| 2016 | W14 | Tennessee Titans | 13 – 10 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/14g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 14/39g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 31% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | J.K. Dobbins | RB | no games | 7/10g (1·0·1·2·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 53' |
| – | Lucas Krull | TE | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | no games | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 5/16g | 23% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 32% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Trent Sherfield | WR | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Troy Franklin | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 19% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | no games | 1/5g (1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 20% | — | — |

**Tennessee Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Bryce Oliver | WR | no games | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Calvin Ridley | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 26% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $18.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Cam Ward | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Chig Okonkwo | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Chimere Dike | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | David Martin-Robinson | TE | no games | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Elic Ayomanor | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Gunnar Helm | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Julius Chestnut | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tony Pollard | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.15 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Tyler Lockett | WR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Tennessee Titans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Tony Pollard 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Calvin Ridley 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Titans: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Denver Broncos** (4 picks)
- ⚡ J.K. Dobbins 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · new club · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 42% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Marvin Mims Jr. — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Evan Engram — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 31% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 9 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1546 · Tennessee Titans 1368 · ELO difference: 179 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Tennessee Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 68 | 50 | Denver Broncos +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 53 | 50 | Even |
| Backfield | 51 | 37 | Denver Broncos +14 |
| Pass Rush | 62 | 46 | Denver Broncos +16 |
| Secondary | 58 | 51 | Denver Broncos +7 |
| Special Teams | 62 | 57 | Denver Broncos +5 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 51 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-07 20:05 UTC (latest tip update)