# Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings — NFL Week 1 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 24 – 27 Minnesota Vikings

_Minnesota Vikings rally to pillage Chicago Bears._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 53% / Minnesota Vikings 47% · Soldier Field · Tue, 09 Sept, 10:15 am AEST

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: Caleb Williams (8'), Nahshon Wright (32'), Rome Odunze (58') · Minnesota Vikings: Justin Jefferson (48' Tipped ⚡), Aaron Jones (51' Tipped ⚡), J.J. McCarthy (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 53% | Lost |
| Minnesota Vikings | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.7 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings Prediction and Tips - NFL Week 1, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 9 Sept 2025, 10:15 am_

Chicago Bears 24–27 Minnesota Vikings in NFL Week 1 at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Minnesota by 3.7 points and a combined total near 45. The Vikings won by 3, the total finished on 51. That's about as tight as a pre-match number gets, even though the way it actually unfolded took its own path to get there.

Chicago led for most of the afternoon. Caleb Williams opened the scoring in the first quarter, and the Bears were up 7-0 at the break in play, then 10-6 at half-time. They stretched that out to 17-6 through three quarters after another Chicago touchdown made it a two-score game. On the underlying numbers, that lead looked earned. The Bears finished with 329 total yards to 263, had 27 first downs to 16, and didn't turn the ball over once. Minnesota lost the ball once and still won.

The fourth quarter is where the model's read on team quality caught up with the scoreboard. Minnesota scored three touchdowns in the final period alone: Justin Jefferson with 12:18 left, Aaron Jones with 9:52 to go, then J.J. McCarthy with 2:59 remaining to push the Vikings ahead 26-17. Rome Odunze got one back for Chicago with 2:05 on the clock, but Minnesota closed it out 27-24. Three unanswered scores in twelve minutes is a lot to have coming, and it's exactly the kind of collapse the raw yardage numbers wouldn't have predicted on their own.

That's the tension in this one. Chicago outgained Minnesota by 66 yards, out-passed them 210 to 143, and even won the sack battle 3 to 2. But Offensive EPA had Minnesota at minus-9 against Chicago's minus-4.5, which tells you the Vikings' plays were less efficient overall, yet their touchdowns landed when it mattered and Chicago's didn't. Yards without points is just yards.

Individually, Caleb Williams threw for 210 yards on 21-of-35 passing with a touchdown. J.J. McCarthy was tidier in a smaller sample, 13-of-20 for 143 yards, two touchdowns and an interception. Jordan Mason was the best runner on the ground, 68 yards on 15 carries, and Chicago actually shaded the rushing count too, 119 to Minnesota's 120, near enough to a dead heat. DJ Moore

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 7 | 3 | 7 | 7 | 24 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0 | 6 | 0 | 21 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| **329** | Total Yards | 263 |
| **210** | Passing Yards | 143 |
| 119 | Rushing Yards | **120** |
| **27** | First Downs | 16 |
| **0** | Turnovers | 1 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **-4.5** | Offensive EPA | -9 |

**Model Report Card**

Minnesota Vikings defied the model's 53% prediction for Chicago Bears, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Minnesota Vikings by 3.7 vs the actual margin of 3 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 51, within 6 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alan Eck officiated this match (49 career games). The combined score of 51 points was 6 points above Alan Eck's career average of 45. Despite Alan Eck's 69% career home-team win rate, the away side Minnesota Vikings prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.93 (edge +1.0%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 4 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Chicago Bears and Minnesota Vikings. The model can't split them, landing on Chicago Bears at 53%. The ratings say otherwise: Minnesota Vikings sit 143 ELO points clear, 1562 to 1419, so the model is backing Chicago Bears against the ratings gap. Minnesota Vikings closed last season the stronger side: 3 wins from their final 5 games to 1 for Chicago Bears.

On paper Minnesota Vikings shade it, ahead on 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Quarterback and Pass Rush. The model still sides with Chicago Bears, which says Secondary carry the most weight. The margin model has Minnesota Vikings by 3.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Minnesota Vikings have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and Chicago Bears took the most recent meeting 19-17 in 2025 Week 11.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Minnesota Vikings went 9-8 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 20.2 points for and 19.6 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, J.J. McCarthy for Minnesota Vikings, with Ben Johnson and Kevin O'Connell calling the shots.

The market has Minnesota Vikings favourites, Chicago Bears $1.93 and Minnesota Vikings $1.89, with the spread at Minnesota Vikings -1.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 3 · Minnesota Vikings 9 |
| Last meeting | Chicago Bears 19-17 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Minnesota Vikings 2025 so far | 9-8 · 5-4 away |
| Minnesota Vikings scoring | 20.2 for · 19.6 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · J.J. McCarthy |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Kevin O'Connell |
| Market | Chicago Bears $1.93 · Minnesota Vikings $1.89 |
| Spread | Minnesota Vikings -1.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alan Eck |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Alan Eck** — 49 career games since 2023.

| Team | Record under Alan Eck | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0W–2L | 0% |
| Minnesota Vikings | 0W–0L | 0% |

Avg total: 44.7 pts · Home win %: 69% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Alan Eck, Chicago Bears 0W–2L (0%) and Minnesota Vikings 0W–0L (0%). Home teams win 69% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (0 games for Minnesota Vikings).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Minnesota Vikings |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 13.8pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 26.0pts | Avg Conceded | 23.8pts |
| -12.2pts | Avg Margin | -3.4pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W14 L · W15 L · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W | 13.8 |
| Minnesota Vikings | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · WC L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Minnesota Vikings lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | W11 | Minnesota Vikings | 17 – 19 | Chicago Bears |
| 2025 | W1 | Chicago Bears | 24 – 27 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2024 | W15 | Minnesota Vikings | 30 – 12 | Chicago Bears |
| 2024 | W12 | Chicago Bears | 27 – 30 | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2023 | W12 | Minnesota Vikings | 10 – 12 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 0% | — | 🏉 8' |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 9/40g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 4/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 8/16g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.85 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 11% | — | 🏉 58' |

**Minnesota Vikings** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Aaron Jones | RB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 13/15g | 5/8g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.80 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 51' |
| – | Adam Thielen | WR | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 4/12g | 3/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $5.10 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $23.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | J.J. McCarthy | QB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 58' |
| – | Jalen Nailor | WR | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Mason | RB | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Josh Oliver | TE | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Justin Jefferson | WR | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 1/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.35 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 48' |
| – | Myles Price | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | T.J. Hockenson | TE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 0/6g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.70 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Tai Felton | WR | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Ty Chandler | RB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/3g | 7% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Minnesota Vikings** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Aaron Jones 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Adam Thielen 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · new club · no TD
- ⚡ Justin Jefferson — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 31% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ T.J. Hockenson — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Vikings: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.McCarthy

**Chicago Bears** (2 picks)
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 6 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Williams, N.Wright, R.Odunze

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1419 · Minnesota Vikings 1562 · ELO difference: 143 in favour of Minnesota Vikings

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Minnesota Vikings | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 44 | 50 | Minnesota Vikings +6 |
| Receiving Corps | 52 | 60 | Minnesota Vikings +8 |
| Backfield | 38 | 49 | Minnesota Vikings +11 |
| Pass Rush | 50 | 58 | Minnesota Vikings +8 |
| Secondary | 61 | 49 | Chicago Bears +12 |
| Special Teams | 48 | 60 | Minnesota Vikings +12 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Minnesota Vikings |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Chicago Bears predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2025-09-09 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)