# Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers — NFL Divisional Round 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 41 – 6 San Francisco 49ers

_Seattle Seahawks put San Francisco 49ers to the sword._

Half time: 24 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 55% / San Francisco 49ers 45% · Lumen Field · Sun, 18 Jan, 12:00 pm AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Rashid Shaheed (1'), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (14' Tipped ⚡), Walker (30'), Walker (43'), Walker (48') · San Francisco 49ers: none

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 55% | Won |
| San Francisco 49ers | 45% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 35 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs San Francisco 49ers Prediction and Tips - NFL Divisional Round, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Jan 2026, 12:00 pm_

Seattle Seahawks 41–6 San Francisco 49ers in NFL Divisional Round at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Seattle led 24-6 at the break and there was never a second act to worry about. San Francisco needed something in the third quarter to make it a game again. What they got was Kenneth Walker III scoring again with 2:28 left in that quarter, then again with 12:47 to go in the fourth, and by the time the clock ran out it was 41-6. Whatever rewrite the 49ers were hoping for, the story stayed exactly as written at half-time.

Walker was the whole plot. Three touchdowns, 116 yards on 19 carries, and Seattle leaning on the ground game to the tune of 175 rushing yards, 59% of their total output. San Francisco's pass rush rating of 50 going in suggested they'd at least make life difficult up front. It didn't show up in the box score.

The turnover column tells most of the rest. San Francisco coughed it up three times, Seattle none. Add sacks even at two apiece and it's clear where the game actually got decided: not in the trenches, but in the moments San Francisco couldn't hang onto the ball. Seattle's offensive EPA of +11 against San Francisco's -21.8 is a 32.8-point gap in pure efficiency, and that number does not lie about who was playing the cleaner football.

Through the air, Sam Darnold went 12-of-17 for 124 yards and a touchdown, tidy and unspectacular, exactly what you want from a quarterback sitting on a big lead. Brock Purdy threw for 140 on 15-of-27 with an interception, numbers that look fine on paper but came with none of the scoreboard impact San Francisco needed. Cooper Kupp led all receivers with 5 catches for 60 yards, which in a 35-point loss is a stat line that means precisely nothing.

Here's the part that should needle San Francisco fans a bit: their quarterback rating going in was the clear edge, 69 to Seattle's 48. Didn't matter. Seattle's secondary, rated 65 against San Francisco's 47, backed that up with the pick and a defensive performance that kept San Francisco off the board entirely. Seattle's special teams edge, 73 to 63, and their form line coming in, five straight wins and just 15 points conceded a game on average, all lined up with what actually happened. San Francisco arrived on six days' rest to Seattle's fourteen, and by the fourth quarter it looked like it.

Alphr's model backed Seattle at 55%, which was the right side of the ledger. The total of 47 points landed bang on the actual combined score. The margin, though, was where the model got embarrassed: it had Seattle by 4.2, the reality was 35. Sometimes the model reads the winner fine and completely misjudges how ugly it gets. This was one of those days.

San Francisco leaves Lumen Field with nothing to hang a positive spin on, no touchdowns, three turnovers, and a form line that now reads a lot worse than it did walking in.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 17 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 41 |
| San Francisco 49ers | 0 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| **299** | Total Yards | 252 |
| 124 | Passing Yards | **144** |
| **175** | Rushing Yards | 108 |
| 24 | First Downs | **25** |
| **0** | Turnovers | 3 |
| 2 | Sacks Made | 2 |
| **11** | Offensive EPA | -21.8 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 55% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 35 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 47, within 0 points. The model went 2/3 on this match. The over 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

John Hussey officiated this match (181 career games). The 47-point combined total was right in line with John Hussey's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks bucked the trend, San Francisco 49ers historically win 67% of games under John Hussey, but couldn't convert that edge today. Seattle Seahawks's home victory fits John Hussey's profile, home teams win 66% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.33 (edge -20.4%) — model probability 54.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Seattle Seahawks are the call at 55%, but San Francisco 49ers stay live at 45%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 101 ELO points clear, 1703 to 1602. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for San Francisco 49ers.

Seattle Seahawks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The margin model has Seattle Seahawks by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Seattle Seahawks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

San Francisco 49ers have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 41-6 in 2025 the Divisional round.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

San Francisco 49ers went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 7-2 away, averaging 25.7 points for and 21.8 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Brock Purdy for San Francisco 49ers, with Mike Macdonald and Kyle Shanahan calling the shots.

Seattle Seahawks come in fresher, 14 days between games against 6.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.33 and San Francisco 49ers $3.45, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -6.5 and the total at 44.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 5 · San Francisco 49ers 7 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 41-6 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| San Francisco 49ers 2025 so far | 12-5 · 7-2 away |
| San Francisco 49ers scoring | 25.7 for · 21.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Brock Purdy |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Kyle Shanahan |
| Rest | Seattle Seahawks 14d · San Francisco 49ers 6d |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.33 · San Francisco 49ers $3.45 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -6.5 · total 44.5 |
| Referee | John Hussey |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours San Francisco 49ers

**John Hussey** — 181 career games since 2015.

| Team | Record under John Hussey | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 4W–7L | 36% |
| San Francisco 49ers | 6W–3L | 67% |

Avg total: 45.9 pts · Home win %: 66% · Home bias: Leans home

When John Hussey officiates, San Francisco 49ers have won 6 of 9 games (67%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 4 from 11 (36%). Home teams win 66% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | San Francisco 49ers |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 26.6pts | Avg Score | 30.6pts |
| 15.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.2pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Margin | 6.4pts |
| 14.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W14 W · W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W | 26.6 |
| San Francisco 49ers | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 L · WC W | 30.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | DIV | Seattle Seahawks | 41 – 6 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2025 | W18 | San Francisco 49ers | 3 – 13 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2025 | W1 | Seattle Seahawks | 13 – 17 | San Francisco 49ers |
| 2024 | W11 | San Francisco 49ers | 17 – 20 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W6 | Seattle Seahawks | 24 – 36 | San Francisco 49ers |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Zach Charbonnet | RB | 12 in 16g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·2·1) | 2/6g | 12/23g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.97 AI 33% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 10 in 17g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 14/25g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 35% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 7 in 17g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 4/16g | 31% | — | — |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/8g | 14/29g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 33% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 32% | — | 🏉 1' |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/13g | 0/12g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/11g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/16g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Robbie Ouzts | RB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/11g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Velus Jones Jr. | WR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |

**San Francisco 49ers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Christian McCaffrey | RB | 19 in 18g | 13/10g (2·0·3·1·1·1·2·1·0·2) | 8/9g | 3/3g | 72% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.92 AI 61% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.75 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Jauan Jennings | WR | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·1·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 0/5g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.00 AI 34% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Jake Tonges | TE | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.40 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Brock Purdy | QB | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/4g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Brian Robinson | RB | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Demarcus Robinson | WR | 2 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 2/1g | 26% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Juszczyk | RB | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/17g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Luke Farrell | TE | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jordan James | RB | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| – | Kendrick Bourne | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Mac Jones | QB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| – | Ricky Pearsall | WR | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| – | Skyy Moore | WR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**San Francisco 49ers** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Christian McCaffrey 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 4 pass) · model 61% · no TD
- ⚡ Jauan Jennings — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ Jake Tonges — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the 49ers: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

**Seattle Seahawks** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 35% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · **scored Q2, Q3, Q4**
- ⚡ Zach Charbonnet 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- Rest of the Seahawks: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: R.Shaheed

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1703 · San Francisco 49ers 1602 · ELO difference: 101 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | San Francisco 49ers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 48 | 69 | San Francisco 49ers +21 |
| Receiving Corps | 63 | 52 | Seattle Seahawks +11 |
| Backfield | 61 | 63 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 48 | 50 | Even |
| Secondary | 65 | 47 | Seattle Seahawks +18 |
| Special Teams | 73 | 63 | Seattle Seahawks +10 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | San Francisco 49ers |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Seattle Seahawks |

**Model Confidence: 55%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-18 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)