# New England Patriots v Houston Texans — NFL Divisional Round 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: New England Patriots 28 – 16 Houston Texans

_New England Patriots see off Houston Texans._

Half time: 21 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: New England Patriots 63% / Houston Texans 37% · Gillette Stadium · Mon, 19 Jan, 07:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — New England Patriots: DeMario Douglas (6'), Marcus Jones (20'), Stefon Diggs (27' Tipped ⚡), Kayshon Boutte (47') · Houston Texans: Christian Kirk (18')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 63% | Won |
| Houston Texans | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New England Patriots vs Houston Texans Prediction and Tips - NFL Divisional Round, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Jan 2026, 07:00 am_

New England Patriots 28–16 Houston Texans in NFL Divisional Round at Gillette Stadium. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Five turnovers will beat you most Sundays, and it beat Houston Texans 28-16 at Gillette Stadium. New England Patriots didn't need to be spectacular. They just needed Houston to keep handing the ball back, and Houston obliged five times to New England's three.

The scoreboard moved early and rarely stopped. DeMario Douglas got New England on the board inside the first quarter, and by the end of it they led 7-3. Christian Kirk pulled Houston within one score with a touchdown early in the second, but that was as close as it got. Mac Jones and Stefon Diggs both found the end zone before halftime, and New England went to the sheds up 21-10. Houston clawed back a bit through the third quarter, trimming it to 21-16, before Kayshon Boutte's touchdown early in the fourth put the game out of reach at 27-16.

The yardage battle actually favoured nobody by much, 284 to 260 in New England's favour, and Houston even had more first downs, 22 to 19. None of it mattered because of what happened with the ball in Houston's hands. Five turnovers against three is the kind of gap that turns a competitive stat line into a comfortable win, and the offensive EPA numbers back it up: New England at -18.7, Houston worse still at -29.3. Neither offense was efficient in the pure expected-points sense, but Houston was considerably less efficient, and that's before you factor in giving the ball away twice as often.

Drake Maye had a tidy night without needing to be brilliant: 16 of 27 for 179 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. C.J. Stroud threw more, completing 20 of 47 for 212 yards, but with only one touchdown against four picks. That's a rough afternoon for a quarterback, and it lines up with Houston's pass rush actually winning its individual battle, five sacks to three, without it translating to a win on the board.

On the ground it was no contest. Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 70 yards on 16 carries, part of a rushing effort that saw New England put up 105 yards to Houston's 48. That backfield gap was flagged before kickoff too: New England came in rated 78 to Houston's 55 there, the widest positional gap on the sheet, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect.

Boutte was the standout target, three catches for 75 yards and a touchdown, doing more with less volume than anyone else on the field managed.

Houston arrived on a five-game win streak and leaving with more total yards and more first downs than they had against them, which tells you the turnovers were the whole story, not just part of it. New England had dropped their last one before this, sitting 4-1 across their last five. Form lined up roughly with what happened, just not by the means anyone would have picked.

Alphr's model backed New England at 63 percent and got the winner right. It undercooked the margin badly, tipping a near dead-heat of 0.2 points when the actual gap was 12. The total was closer to the mark, calling 48 against an actual 44. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 7 | 14 | 0 | 7 | 28 |
| Houston Texans | 3 | 7 | 6 | 0 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| New England Patriots | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| **284** | Total Yards | 260 |
| 179 | Passing Yards | **212** |
| **105** | Rushing Yards | 48 |
| 19 | First Downs | **22** |
| **3** | Turnovers | 5 |
| 3 | Sacks Made | **5** |
| **-18.7** | Offensive EPA | -29.3 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted New England Patriots to win at 63% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 0.2 but the actual margin was 12 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 44, within 4 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Smith officiated this match (129 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Shawn Smith's career average of 47. New England Patriots bucked the trend, Houston Texans historically win 83% of games under Shawn Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.56 (edge -1.1%) — model probability 63.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New England Patriots -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 0 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

New England Patriots are the call at 63%, but Houston Texans stay live at 37%. The ratings say otherwise: Houston Texans sit 65 ELO points clear, 1679 to 1615, so the model is backing New England Patriots against the ratings gap. Form leans Houston Texans' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for New England Patriots.

On paper Houston Texans shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO), Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with New England Patriots, which says Quarterback and Pass Rush carry the most weight. Lean New England Patriots, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 9 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 28-16 in 2025 the Divisional round.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-3 at home, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Houston Texans went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 23.8 points for and 17.4 against.

Drake Maye starts under centre for New England Patriots, C.J. Stroud for Houston Texans, with Mike Vrabel and DeMeco Ryans calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, New England Patriots $1.56 and Houston Texans $2.50, with the spread at New England Patriots -3 and the total at 40.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | New England Patriots 9 · Houston Texans 3 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 28-16 (2025) |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-3 home |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Houston Texans 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Houston Texans scoring | 23.8 for · 17.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Drake Maye · C.J. Stroud |
| Head coaches | Mike Vrabel · DeMeco Ryans |
| Market | New England Patriots $1.56 · Houston Texans $2.50 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -3 · total 40.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Smith |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Houston Texans

**Shawn Smith** — 129 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | 3W–5L | 38% |
| Houston Texans | 5W–1L | 83% |

Avg total: 47.5 pts · Home win %: 50% · Home bias: Neutral

When Shawn Smith officiates, Houston Texans have won 5 of 6 games (83%), significantly stronger than New England Patriots's 3 from 8 (38%). Small sample (6 games for Houston Texans).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| New England Patriots | Stat | Houston Texans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 31.0pts | Avg Score | 30.2pts |
| 16.4pts | Avg Conceded | 18.6pts |
| 14.6pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 7.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots | W15 L · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · WC W | 31.0 |
| Houston Texans | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · WC W | 30.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Houston Texans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | DIV | New England Patriots | 28 – 16 | Houston Texans |
| 2024 | W6 | New England Patriots | 21 – 41 | Houston Texans |
| 2021 | W5 | Houston Texans | 22 – 25 | New England Patriots |
| 2020 | W11 | Houston Texans | 27 – 20 | New England Patriots |
| 2019 | W13 | Houston Texans | 28 – 22 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Gillette Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 10 in 18g | 9/10g (0·2·3·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 8/10g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 44% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 9 in 15g | 7/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·3·0) | 0/1g | 17/33g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.75 AI 45% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 8 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 3/3g | 15/42g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 37% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 6 in 15g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/17g | 28% | — | 🏉 47' |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 4/16g | 15% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 4 in 18g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/16g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.45 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 27' |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 4/23g | 14% | — | 🏉 6' |
| – | Kyle Williams | WR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/9g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Austin Hooper | TE | 2 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/17g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Efton Chism III | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/5g | 11% | — | — |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Houston Texans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jayden Higgins | WR | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Woody Marks | RB | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.70 AI 32% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dalton Schultz | TE | 3 in 18g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.60 AI 21% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Nick Chubb | RB | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Hutchinson | WR | 3 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Christian Kirk | WR | 2 in 12g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | 🏉 18' |
| – | Jaylin Noel | WR | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| – | C.J. Stroud | QB | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| – | Braxton Berrios | WR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Cade Stover | TE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| – | Harrison Bryant | TE | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Houston Texans** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Woody Marks 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 32% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Schultz — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 21% · no TD
- Rest of the Texans: 11 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kirk

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 45% · no TD
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 44% · no TD
- ⚡ Hunter Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 37% · no TD
- ⚡ Stefon Diggs — 1 TD in last 5 (0 rush · 1 pass) · model 28% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Patriots: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Douglas, M.Jones, K.Boutte

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Houston Texans hold the ELO advantage (1679 vs 1615), but the market favours New England Patriots (@1.56). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — New England Patriots 1615 · Houston Texans 1679 · ELO difference: 65 in favour of Houston Texans

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | New England Patriots | Houston Texans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 52 | New England Patriots +18 |
| Receiving Corps | 61 | 52 | New England Patriots +9 |
| Backfield | 78 | 55 | New England Patriots +23 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 52 | Even |
| Secondary | 53 | 63 | Houston Texans +10 |
| Special Teams | 64 | 77 | Houston Texans +13 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Houston Texans |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | New England Patriots |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Houston Texans |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — New England Patriots favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-18 20:00 UTC (latest tip update)