# Denver Broncos v Buffalo Bills — NFL Divisional Round 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 33 – 30 Buffalo Bills

_Denver Broncos survive a scare against Buffalo Bills._

Half time: 20 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 77% / Buffalo Bills 23% · Empower Field at Mile High · Sun, 18 Jan, 08:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Frank Crum (21'), Lil'Jordan Humphrey (30'), Mims (59') · Buffalo Bills: Mecole Hardman (15'), Keon Coleman (39'), Dalton Kincaid (47' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 77% | Won |
| Buffalo Bills | 23% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.6 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs Buffalo Bills Prediction and Tips - NFL Divisional Round, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 18 Jan 2026, 08:30 am_

Denver Broncos 33–30 Buffalo Bills in NFL Divisional Round at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Denver as 4.6-point favourites, ratings 1666 to Buffalo's 1672, with a combined total of 44. What actually turned up was Denver winning by 3 in overtime, 33-30, with the two sides combining for 63 points. The favourite got home. Almost everything else about how it happened ran hotter than advertised.

Buffalo were first on the board, Mecole Hardman's touchdown with 10 seconds left in the first putting them up 7-3. Denver settled into it after that, a score from Lil'Jordan Humphrey helping push the lead to 20-10 at the half. On the pre-match numbers that looked like a reasonable outcome for the favourite. It wasn't close to the final word.

Buffalo clawed it back in the third, Keon Coleman's touchdown trimming the gap to 23-17, and by 13:29 left in the fourth Dalton Kincaid had levelled it at 23-23. Marvin Mims Jr. answered for Denver with 1:01 to go, an 8-catch, 93-yard, one-touchdown afternoon capped by the score that made it 29-27. Buffalo weren't done, tying it 30-30 to force overtime, where Denver finally shut the door.

The yardage sheet tells you Buffalo were the better side for large stretches: 466 total yards to Denver's 349, 41 first downs to 32, and an offensive EPA of 6.5 against Denver's 0.2. That last number in particular says Buffalo were the more efficient team snap for snap, by 6.3 expected points. None of that showed up where it counts most.

Five turnovers against one is what actually settled it. Buffalo's form line coming in, four wins from five with an average margin of 7.2 points, suggested a side that doesn't usually hand games away like that. Denver's pass rush did its bit too, three sacks to none, disrupting a Buffalo attack that otherwise moved the ball at will.

James Cook ran for 117 yards on 24 carries, and Buffalo's 183 rushing yards made up 39% of their offence, evidence the ground game was doing real work. Through the air Josh Allen went 25 of 39 for 283 yards and 3 touchdowns but also 2 interceptions, while Bo Nix countered with 26 of 46 for 279, 3 touchdowns and just the one pick. Nix's turnover discipline, set against Allen's two giveaways, lines up neatly with the five-to-one turnover count that decided the day.

Denver came in with the shorter rest, 13 days to Buffalo's 6, and the weaker backfield and rece

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 3 | 17 | 3 | 7 | 3 | 33 |
| Buffalo Bills | 7 | 3 | 7 | 13 | 0 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 349 | Total Yards | **466** |
| 279 | Passing Yards | **283** |
| 70 | Rushing Yards | **183** |
| 32 | First Downs | **41** |
| **1** | Turnovers | 5 |
| **3** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| 0.2 | Offensive EPA | **6.5** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Denver Broncos to win at 77% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Denver Broncos by 4.6 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The game's 63 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Carl Cheffers officiated this match (286 career games). The combined score of 63 points was 18 points above Carl Cheffers's career average of 45. Denver Broncos bucked the trend, Buffalo Bills historically win 67% of games under Carl Cheffers, but couldn't convert that edge today. Denver Broncos's home victory fits Carl Cheffers's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.83 (edge +22.8%) — model probability 77.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Denver Broncos here: 77% to see off Buffalo Bills.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 4.6, with the two sides combining for about 44. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Denver Broncos to win, not to win big.

The recent history is even: 6 wins each from the last 12 meetings, Denver Broncos taking the most recent 33-30 in 2025 the Divisional round.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

Buffalo Bills went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-3 away, averaging 28.3 points for and 21.5 against.

Bo Nix starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Josh Allen for Buffalo Bills, with Sean Payton and Sean McDermott calling the shots.

Denver Broncos come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

The market has Denver Broncos favourites, Denver Broncos $1.83 and Buffalo Bills $2.00, with the spread at Denver Broncos -1.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 6 · Buffalo Bills 6 |
| Last meeting | Denver Broncos 33-30 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| Buffalo Bills 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-3 away |
| Buffalo Bills scoring | 28.3 for · 21.5 against |
| Quarterbacks | Bo Nix · Josh Allen |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Sean McDermott |
| Rest | Denver Broncos 13d · Buffalo Bills 6d |
| Market | Denver Broncos $1.83 · Buffalo Bills $2.00 |
| Spread | Denver Broncos -1.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Carl Cheffers |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Buffalo Bills

**Carl Cheffers** — 286 career games since 2008.

| Team | Record under Carl Cheffers | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 10W–8L | 56% |
| Buffalo Bills | 14W–7L | 67% |

Avg total: 44.9 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Buffalo Bills hold a 11-point edge: 14W–7L (67%) vs Denver Broncos's 10W–8L (56%). Home teams win 60% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | Buffalo Bills |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.4pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 18.6pts | Avg Conceded | 19.2pts |
| 4.8pts | Avg Margin | 7.2pts |
| 13.0d | Rest Days | 6.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W14 W · W15 W · W16 L · W17 W · W18 W | 23.4 |
| Buffalo Bills | W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 W · WC W | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Buffalo Bills lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | DIV | Denver Broncos | 33 – 30 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2024 | WC | Buffalo Bills | 31 – 7 | Denver Broncos |
| 2023 | W10 | Buffalo Bills | 22 – 24 | Denver Broncos |
| 2020 | W15 | Denver Broncos | 19 – 48 | Buffalo Bills |
| 2019 | W12 | Buffalo Bills | 20 – 3 | Denver Broncos |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 12 in 17g | 10/10g (3·1·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 7/9g | 59% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.91 AI 38% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $6.25 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 7 in 17g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 18/48g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.20 AI 30% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Bo Nix | QB | 5 in 17g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 5/17g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 3 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 6/24g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Adam Trautman | TE | 1 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/20g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/21g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/15g | 14% | — | 🏉 30' |
| – | Nate Adkins | TE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/15g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 13g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/7g | 9% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 13g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/11g | 3% | — | — |

**Buffalo Bills** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Josh Allen | QB | 16 in 17g | 11/10g (2·0·3·0·1·1·0·0·2·2) | 3/4g | 2/1g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.02 AI 49% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | James Cook | RB | 14 in 18g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·0·3·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.10 AI 49% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Dalton Kincaid | TE | 6 in 13g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.10 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 47' |
| – | Dawson Knox | TE | 4 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $6.00 AI 26% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Keon Coleman | WR | 4 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 39' |
| – | Khalil Shakir | WR | 4 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Ray Davis | RB | 3 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 25% | — | — |
| – | Curtis Samuel | WR | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Brandin Cooks | WR | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| – | Frank Gore Jr. | RB | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Mecole Hardman | WR | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 20% | — | 🏉 15' |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Buffalo Bills** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Josh Allen 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ James Cook 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 1 pass) · model 49% · no TD
- ⚡ Dalton Kincaid — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 26% · **scored Q4**
- ⚡ Dawson Knox — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 26% · no TD
- Rest of the Bills: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: M.Hardman, K.Coleman

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (3 rush · 1 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 30% · no TD
- Rest of the Broncos: 7 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: F.Crum, L.Humphrey, M.Mims

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Buffalo Bills hold the ELO advantage (1672 vs 1666), but the market favours Denver Broncos (@1.83). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1666 · Buffalo Bills 1672 · ELO difference: 6 in favour of Buffalo Bills

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | Buffalo Bills | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 64 | 71 | Buffalo Bills +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 51 | 60 | Buffalo Bills +9 |
| Backfield | 51 | 65 | Buffalo Bills +14 |
| Pass Rush | 56 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 58 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 64 | 60 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | — |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Buffalo Bills |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | — |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | Denver Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 77%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-17 21:30 UTC (latest tip update)