# Chicago Bears v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Divisional Round 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Chicago Bears 17 – 20 Los Angeles Rams

_Los Angeles Rams survive a scare against Chicago Bears._

Half time: 10 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Chicago Bears 37% / Los Angeles Rams 63% · Soldier Field · Mon, 19 Jan, 10:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Chicago Bears: DJ Moore (15' Tipped ⚡), Cole Kmet (60') · Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (9' Tipped ⚡), Kyren Williams (52' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 63% | Won |
| Chicago Bears | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.2 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Chicago Bears vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Divisional Round, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 19 Jan 2026, 10:30 am_

Chicago Bears 17–20 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Divisional Round at Soldier Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fifteen minutes of football produced a 10-10 scoreline at the break, and if you'd walked away from the telly at half-time you'd have guessed this one was heading for a shootout. Instead it turned into a defensive arm-wrestle that needed extra time to settle, Los Angeles Rams eventually getting home 20-17 at Soldier Field.

The scoring pattern tells you plenty. Kyren Williams opened it for the Rams with 6:24 left in the first, DJ Moore answered for Chicago at the top of the second to make it 6-7, and from there both sides traded just enough to keep it locked at 10-10 through the third quarter without another point landing. Nobody moved the margin for a full half of football.

Then the Rams found the gap that mattered. Williams's second touchdown, with 8:55 left in the fourth, pushed Los Angeles out to 16-10, and Chicago's response through Cole Kmet came agonisingly late, 0:27 on the clock, levelling it at 17-17 and forcing overtime. In the extra period, the Rams found three more points and Chicago couldn't answer.

Chicago actually won the volume battle everywhere it's usually decisive. They outgained Los Angeles 417 yards to 369, ran for 160 compared to 111, and their pass rush got home four times to none. None of it showed up on the scoreboard. Three turnovers from Chicago against zero from the Rams did the damage that the yardage column couldn't undo, and the efficiency numbers back it up: Los Angeles ran +2.9 offensive EPA to Chicago's -2.9, a gap of 5.8 expected points that lines up almost exactly with how this game was actually decided.

Caleb Williams threw for 257 yards and two touchdowns but paired it with three interceptions, going 23 of 42. Matthew Stafford was tidier without being spectacular, 20 of 42 for 258 yards, and he didn't have to be, because Kyren Williams did the heavy lifting on the ground with 87 yards and two scores on 21 carries. Colby Parkinson led all receivers with just 56 yards on three catches, a quiet night that says as much about how this game was won up front and on the ground as anything in the passing charts.

The pre-match positional read had the Rams stronger at quarterback, 77 to 70, and in the receiving corps, 71 to 64, while Chicago held the edge in the backfield, pass rush and secondary. Both showed up. Chicago's rushing yards and sack count were exactly what you'd expect from the stronger backfield and pass rush, and Stafford's calm, mistake-free outing was exactly what you'd expect from the better-rated arm under pressure.

Alphr's model had Los Angeles as 63% favourites going in, and that call held up. The margin projection, Chicago by 0.2 on a combined total of 50, undersold how tight this would actually be, but at three points the final gap wasn't far off it either. Wins and misses, all of it, and this one landed closer to right than wrong.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | OT | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 0 | 10 | 0 | 7 | 0 | 17 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| **417** | Total Yards | 369 |
| 257 | Passing Yards | **258** |
| **160** | Rushing Yards | 111 |
| 33 | First Downs | **34** |
| 3 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **4** | Sacks Made | 0 |
| -2.9 | Offensive EPA | **2.9** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Los Angeles Rams to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Chicago Bears by 0.2 vs the actual margin of 3 points. The model went 2/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Shawn Hochuli officiated this match (130 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 8 points below Shawn Hochuli's career average of 45.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.49 (edge -4.4%) — model probability 62.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 0 · Predicted total: 50

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Los Angeles Rams are the call at 63%, but Chicago Bears stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Los Angeles Rams sit 115 ELO points clear, 1664 to 1549.

Los Angeles Rams own the matchup too, leading 2 of 6 factors including Team Rating (ELO) and Quarterback. Lean Los Angeles Rams, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Chicago Bears have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Los Angeles Rams took the most recent meeting 20-17 in 2025 the Divisional round.

Chicago Bears went 11-6 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 25.9 points for and 24.4 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Caleb Williams starts under centre for Chicago Bears, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Ben Johnson and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Los Angeles Rams favourites, Chicago Bears $2.70 and Los Angeles Rams $1.49, with the spread at Los Angeles Rams -3.5 and the total at 49.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Chicago Bears 7 · Los Angeles Rams 5 |
| Last meeting | Los Angeles Rams 20-17 (2025) |
| Chicago Bears 2025 so far | 11-6 · 6-2 home |
| Chicago Bears scoring | 25.9 for · 24.4 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Caleb Williams · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Ben Johnson · Sean McVay |
| Market | Chicago Bears $2.70 · Los Angeles Rams $1.49 |
| Spread | Los Angeles Rams -3.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Shawn Hochuli |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Shawn Hochuli** — 130 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Shawn Hochuli | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | 2W–1L | 67% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 5W–3L | 63% |

Avg total: 45.2 pts · Home win %: 52% · Home bias: Neutral

Both sides have a similar record under Shawn Hochuli, Chicago Bears 2W–1L (67%) and Los Angeles Rams 5W–3L (63%). Small sample (3 games for Chicago Bears).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Chicago Bears | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.6pts | Avg Score | 34.6pts |
| 21.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.0pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | 4.6pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 8.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Chicago Bears | W15 W · W16 W · W17 L · W18 L · WC W | 27.6 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W15 W · W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · WC W | 34.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Los Angeles Rams lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | DIV | Chicago Bears | 17 – 20 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2024 | W4 | Chicago Bears | 24 – 18 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2021 | W1 | Los Angeles Rams | 34 – 14 | Chicago Bears |
| 2020 | W7 | Los Angeles Rams | 24 – 10 | Chicago Bears |
| 2019 | W11 | Los Angeles Rams | 17 – 7 | Chicago Bears |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Soldier Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Chicago Bears** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | D'Andre Swift | RB | 11 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·2·0·1) | 2/3g | 8/19g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 59% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | DJ Moore | WR | 8 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 15/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.30 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| – | Colston Loveland | TE | 6 in 17g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.10 AI 38% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rome Odunze | WR | 6 in 13g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/14g | 23% | — | — |
| – | Kyle Monangai | RB | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 32% | — | — |
| – | Caleb Williams | QB | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/17g | 11% | — | — |
| – | Olamide Zaccheaus | WR | 3 in 15g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/8g | 18% | — | — |
| – | Cole Kmet | TE | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 10/49g | 14% | — | 🏉 60' |
| – | Luther Burden III | WR | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 12% | — | — |
| – | Devin Duvernay | WR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Durham Smythe | TE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 14 in 15g | 11/10g (0·3·2·1·1·2·2·0·0·0) | 10/13g | 2/7g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.95 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.75 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 14 in 18g | 8/10g (2·1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.20 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' 52' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 13 in 17g | 9/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.00 AI 58% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $7.25 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 9 in 15g | 9/10g (1·1·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 6 in 18g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (3 picks)
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 5 pass) · model 58% · no TD
- ⚡ Davante Adams 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Kyren Williams — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · **scored Q1, Q4**
- Rest of the Rams: 11 TDs across the team's last 5

**Chicago Bears** (3 picks)
- ⚡ D'Andre Swift 🎯 — 5 TDs in last 5 (5 rush · 0 pass) · model 59% · no TD
- ⚡ DJ Moore 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 4 pass) · model 43% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Colston Loveland — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 38% · no TD
- Rest of the Bears: 5 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: C.Kmet

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Chicago Bears 1549 · Los Angeles Rams 1664 · ELO difference: 115 in favour of Los Angeles Rams

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Chicago Bears | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 70 | 77 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Receiving Corps | 64 | 71 | Los Angeles Rams +7 |
| Backfield | 63 | 60 | Even |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 53 | Chicago Bears +5 |
| Secondary | 57 | 55 | Even |
| Special Teams | 64 | 68 | Even |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Chicago Bears |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | — |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Los Angeles Rams favoured in a tight, low-margin contest · Predicted total: 50 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-18 23:30 UTC (latest tip update)