# Seattle Seahawks v Los Angeles Rams — NFL Conference Championships 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Seattle Seahawks 31 – 27 Los Angeles Rams

_Seattle Seahawks survive a scare against Los Angeles Rams._

Half time: 17 – 13 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Seattle Seahawks 58% / Los Angeles Rams 42% · Lumen Field · Mon, 26 Jan, 10:30 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Seattle Seahawks: Walker (5'), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (30' Tipped ⚡), Jake Bobo (33'), Cooper Kupp (41') · Los Angeles Rams: Kyren Williams (28' Tipped ⚡), Davante Adams (36' Tipped ⚡), Puka Nacua (43' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 58% | Won |
| Los Angeles Rams | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams Prediction and Tips - NFL Conference Championships, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Jan 2026, 10:30 am_

Seattle Seahawks 31–27 Los Angeles Rams in NFL Conference Championships at Lumen Field. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Zero. That's how many points either side put up in the final quarter, after three periods that produced 58 combined. Seattle Seahawks held on 31-27 over the Los Angeles Rams at Lumen Field, and the fact the scoreboard froze once Seattle grabbed that four-point edge late in the third tells you almost everything about how this one was decided.

Because up until then it was a shootout. Kenneth Walker III opened it with a touchdown to make it 6-0, Seattle led 10-3 after one, then the Rams hit back through Kyren Williams to go up 12-10 with two minutes left in the half. Jaxon Smith-Njigba answered 25 seconds before the break to hand Seattle a 17-13 half-time lead, and the third quarter turned into a slugfest: Jake Bobo, then Davante Adams, then Cooper Kupp, then Puka Nacua, four scores in the space of ten minutes that left it 31-27 with a full quarter still to play. Nobody blinked again after that.

The stat sheet says the Rams should have won this comfortably. They outgained Seattle 488 yards to 421, ran for 114 to Seattle's 75, and were the sharper offence by any measure that matters, plus 5.3 points clear on expected points per snap. Their pass rush got home three times to Seattle's one. On a neutral ledger, that's a Rams win.

It wasn't, because Seattle's backfield strength rating (68 to the Rams' 57) showed up exactly where it needed to, in Walker's 62 yards on 19 carries and a touchdown, the clock-friendly ground game that let Seattle sit on that late lead rather than have to chase it. The Rams' 73-rated quarterback spot delivered too, Matthew Stafford went 22-of-35 for 374 yards and 3 touchdowns, with Nacua the game's leading receiver on 9 catches for 165 yards and a score of his own. Sam Darnold matched him blow for blow, 25-of-36 for 346 and 3 touchdowns, spreading it to Kupp, Bobo and Smith-Njigba.

Form lines pointed at a tight one, and got a tight one. Seattle came in on a five-game winning streak conceding just 14.4 a game, the Rams on three straight wins after a rough start but still leaking 26.6 a night on average, and that gap in the defensive numbers is more or less what played out, a track meet where neither side could stop the other but Seattle's edge held by a possession.

Alphr's model had Seattle as 58% favourites despite the Rams carrying the higher rating pre-match, 1675 to 1723, and tipped the Rams by 3.9 on a projected total of 43. The margin landed almost exactly there, a four-point Seattle win instead of a 3.9-point Rams edge, proof the model's read on which way a close one would tip was sound even when it picked against the higher-rated side. The total blew the projection out of the water though, 58 points against an expected 43, fifteen more than forecast and a reminder that some games just weren't going to play out at a jog.

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 10 | 7 | 14 | 0 | 31 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 3 | 10 | 14 | 0 | 27 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 421 | Total Yards | **488** |
| 346 | Passing Yards | **374** |
| 75 | Rushing Yards | **114** |
| **42** | First Downs | 41 |
| 0 | Turnovers | 0 |
| 1 | Sacks Made | **3** |
| 12.9 | Offensive EPA | **18.2** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Seattle Seahawks to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The game's 58 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 43. The model went 1/3 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Clay Martin officiated this match (127 career games). The combined score of 58 points was 12 points above Clay Martin's career average of 46. Seattle Seahawks bucked the trend, Los Angeles Rams historically win 100% of games under Clay Martin, but couldn't convert that edge today.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.70 (edge -0.4%) — model probability 58.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Seattle Seahawks are the call at 58%, but Los Angeles Rams stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Seattle Seahawks sit 48 ELO points clear, 1723 to 1675. Form leans Seattle Seahawks' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Los Angeles Rams.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Los Angeles Rams by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Seattle Seahawks, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Los Angeles Rams have won 7 of the last 12 between these two, and Seattle Seahawks took the most recent meeting 31-27 in 2025 the Conference Championship.

Seattle Seahawks went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 6-2 at home, averaging 28.4 points for and 17.2 against.

Los Angeles Rams went 12-5 in 2025 so far, 5-4 away, averaging 30.5 points for and 20.4 against.

Sam Darnold starts under centre for Seattle Seahawks, Matthew Stafford for Los Angeles Rams, with Mike Macdonald and Sean McVay calling the shots.

The market has Seattle Seahawks favourites, Seattle Seahawks $1.70 and Los Angeles Rams $2.20, with the spread at Seattle Seahawks -2.5 and the total at 45.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Seattle Seahawks 5 · Los Angeles Rams 7 |
| Last meeting | Seattle Seahawks 31-27 (2025) |
| Seattle Seahawks 2025 so far | 14-3 · 6-2 home |
| Seattle Seahawks scoring | 28.4 for · 17.2 against |
| Los Angeles Rams 2025 so far | 12-5 · 5-4 away |
| Los Angeles Rams scoring | 30.5 for · 20.4 against |
| Quarterbacks | Sam Darnold · Matthew Stafford |
| Head coaches | Mike Macdonald · Sean McVay |
| Market | Seattle Seahawks $1.70 · Los Angeles Rams $2.20 |
| Spread | Seattle Seahawks -2.5 · total 45.5 |
| Referee | Clay Martin |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Los Angeles Rams

**Clay Martin** — 127 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Clay Martin | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | 4W–3L | 57% |
| Los Angeles Rams | 7W–0L | 100% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 51% · Home bias: Neutral

When Clay Martin officiates, Los Angeles Rams have won 7 of 7 games (100%), significantly stronger than Seattle Seahawks's 4 from 7 (57%). Small sample (7 games for Seattle Seahawks).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Seattle Seahawks | Stat | Los Angeles Rams |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 27.4pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 14.4pts | Avg Conceded | 26.6pts |
| 13.0pts | Avg Margin | 3.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Seattle Seahawks | W15 W · W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · DIV W | 27.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | W16 L · W17 L · W18 W · WC W · DIV W | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Seattle Seahawks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CONF | Seattle Seahawks | 31 – 27 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W16 | Seattle Seahawks | 38 – 37 | Los Angeles Rams |
| 2025 | W11 | Los Angeles Rams | 21 – 19 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W18 | Los Angeles Rams | 25 – 30 | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2024 | W9 | Seattle Seahawks | 20 – 26 | Los Angeles Rams |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Lumen Field. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Seattle Seahawks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Jaxon Smith-Njigba | WR | 11 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·2·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/6g | 15/26g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.12 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $7.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' |
| – | Kenneth Walker III | RB | 8 in 18g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 2/7g | 17/30g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime TD $1.82 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $6.00 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | — |
| – | AJ Barner | TE | 7 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 4/17g | 28% | — | — |
| – | Rashid Shaheed | WR | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 2/5g | 2/6g | 36% | — | — |
| – | Cooper Kupp | WR | 2 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/13g | 24% | — | 🏉 41' |
| – | George Holani | RB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 1/6g | 17% | — | — |
| – | Brady Russell | RB | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Dareke Young | WR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Eric Saubert | TE | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| – | Jake Bobo | WR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/17g | 12% | — | 🏉 33' |
| – | Sam Darnold | QB | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |

**Los Angeles Rams** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | Kyren Williams | RB | 16 in 19g | 8/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·0·0·1·2) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $9.25 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| – | Davante Adams | WR | 14 in 16g | 11/10g (3·2·1·1·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 5/8g | 0/1g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.40 AI 36% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| – | Puka Nacua | WR | 13 in 18g | 8/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·1·1·2·0) | 3/5g | 2/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.30 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 43' |
| – | Colby Parkinson | TE | 9 in 16g | 8/10g (1·1·0·1·2·0·0·2·1·0) | 1/4g | 2/22g | 34% | — | — |
| – | Blake Corum | RB | 6 in 19g | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.80 AI 35% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Terrance Ferguson | TE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 27% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Higbee | TE | 3 in 12g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/17g | 1/5g | 24% | — | — |
| – | Konata Mumpfield | WR | 1 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 5% | — | — |
| – | Jordan Whittington | WR | 0 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Matthew Stafford | QB | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Ronnie Rivers | RB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Xavier Smith | WR | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**Los Angeles Rams** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Puka Nacua 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (1 rush · 5 pass) · model 56% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Kyren Williams 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 48% · **scored Q2**
- ⚡ Davante Adams — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 36% · **scored Q3**
- ⚡ Blake Corum — 1 TD in last 5 (1 rush · 0 pass) · model 35% · no TD
- Rest of the Rams: 7 TDs across the team's last 5

**Seattle Seahawks** (2 picks)
- ⚡ Kenneth Walker III 🎯 — 4 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 0 pass) · model 47% · **scored Q1**
- ⚡ Jaxon Smith-Njigba 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 39% · **scored Q2**
- Rest of the Seahawks: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: J.Bobo, C.Kupp

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Seattle Seahawks 1723 · Los Angeles Rams 1675 · ELO difference: 48 in favour of Seattle Seahawks

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Seattle Seahawks | Los Angeles Rams | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 44 | 73 | Los Angeles Rams +29 |
| Receiving Corps | 55 | 65 | Los Angeles Rams +10 |
| Backfield | 68 | 57 | Seattle Seahawks +11 |
| Pass Rush | 52 | 56 | Even |
| Secondary | 61 | 58 | Even |
| Special Teams | 64 | 73 | Los Angeles Rams +9 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Los Angeles Rams |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | Seattle Seahawks |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Seattle Seahawks predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-25 23:30 UTC (latest tip update)