# Denver Broncos v New England Patriots — NFL Conference Championships 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Denver Broncos 7 – 10 New England Patriots

_New England Patriots hold off a fast-finishing Denver Broncos._

Half time: 7 – 7 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Denver Broncos 59% / New England Patriots 41% · Empower Field at Mile High · Mon, 26 Jan, 07:00 am AEDT

**Touchdowns** — Denver Broncos: Courtland Sutton (5' Tipped ⚡) · New England Patriots: Drake Maye (28')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 59% | Lost |
| New England Patriots | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 3 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Denver Broncos vs New England Patriots Prediction and Tips - NFL Conference Championships, 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 26 Jan 2026, 07:00 am_

Denver Broncos 7–10 New England Patriots in NFL Conference Championships at Empower Field at Mile High. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

New England Patriots left Empower Field at Mile High with a 10-7 win, and the number that matters more than the final score is 212 to 227. Denver Broncos actually did most things better on the stat sheet: 19 first downs to 14, 133 passing yards to 86, five sacks to three. They still lost. That's the story here.

Turnovers explain the gap. Denver Broncos coughed it up twice, New England Patriots didn't give the ball away once, and a 2-0 turnover margin is the sort of thing that turns a game Denver Broncos were winning on paper into one they lost on the board. Add in an offensive EPA reading of minus-18.1 against New England Patriots' minus-9.8, and you've got a Denver Broncos side that moved the chains without ever really threatening.

The arc was tight throughout. Courtland Sutton put Denver Broncos up 7-0 late in the first quarter, and that lead held until Drake Maye scored with 2:14 left in the second to level it 7-7 at the break. From there New England Patriots found the go-ahead points sometime in the third quarter to make it 10-7, and neither side moved the scoreboard again in the fourth. Seventeen points, from a game the model had pegged for 43. That's a 26-point miss on the total, and it tells you both defences turned up when it counted.

Rushing was where New England Patriots actually won the game away from the box score's first-down count. Rhamondre Stevenson carried 25 times for 71 yards, and New England Patriots finished with 141 rushing yards to Denver Broncos' 79. Denver Broncos won the passing battle and the sack count, but a team that can't run the ball and turns it over twice was never going to hold a one-score lead.

Jarrett Stidham threw for Denver Broncos, going 17-of-31 for 133 yards, a touchdown and an interception, with Marvin Mims Jr. the clear top target on 4 catches for 62 yards. Drake Maye was far more economical for New England Patriots, 10-of-21 for 86 yards, but he's the one whose name is on the touchdown that tied the game, and his side never trailed again after that.

Pre-match, Alphr's model liked Denver Broncos, giving them a 59% chance and a nine-point win on ratings of 1678 to 1642. The margin read wasn't far off, three points instead of nine in Denver Broncos' favour is a reasonable miss on paper. The problem is the model had the wrong team winning altogether, and New England Patriots' form line, five straight wins against Denver Broncos' one loss in their last five, was a fair warning sign that got underweighted.

The positional numbers back that up in hindsight. New England Patriots came in rated higher at quarterback, receiving corps and backfield, and while the box score didn't show a rout, the turnover count and the rushing gap did the damage that those higher

**Scoring by Quarter**

| Team | Q1 | Q2 | Q3 | Q4 | T |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 7 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 7 |
| New England Patriots | 0 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Denver Broncos | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 212 | Total Yards | **227** |
| **133** | Passing Yards | 86 |
| 79 | Rushing Yards | **141** |
| **19** | First Downs | 14 |
| 2 | Turnovers | **0** |
| **5** | Sacks Made | 3 |
| -18.1 | Offensive EPA | **-9.8** |

**Model Report Card**

New England Patriots defied the model's 59% prediction for Denver Broncos, a notable result. The predicted margin of 9.0 was reasonable against the actual 3-point result. The game's 17 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 43. The model went 2/3 on this match. The under 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Alex Kemp officiated this match (132 career games). The combined score of 17 points was 29 points below Alex Kemp's career average of 46. New England Patriots bucked the trend, Denver Broncos historically win 71% of games under Alex Kemp, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Alex Kemp's 55% career home-team win rate, the away side New England Patriots prevailed.

_Official NFL box score · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $2.70 (edge +21.5%) — model probability 58.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 9 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Denver Broncos are the call at 59%, but New England Patriots stay live at 41%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Denver Broncos sit 36 ELO points clear, 1678 to 1642. Form leans New England Patriots' way: 5 from their last 5, against 4 for Denver Broncos.

On paper New England Patriots shade it, ahead on 3 of 6 factors including Quarterback, Secondary and Recent Form. The model still sides with Denver Broncos, which says Team Rating (ELO) and Pass Rush carry the most weight. The margin model has Denver Broncos by 9.0, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Denver Broncos, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

New England Patriots have won 8 of the last 12 between these two, and New England Patriots took the most recent meeting 10-7 in 2025 the Conference Championship.

Denver Broncos went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-1 at home, averaging 23.6 points for and 18.3 against.

New England Patriots went 14-3 in 2025 so far, 8-0 away, averaging 28.8 points for and 18.8 against.

Jarrett Stidham starts under centre for Denver Broncos, Drake Maye for New England Patriots, with Sean Payton and Mike Vrabel calling the shots.

The market has New England Patriots favourites, Denver Broncos $2.70 and New England Patriots $1.49, with the spread at New England Patriots -3.5 and the total at 43.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 12) | Denver Broncos 4 · New England Patriots 8 |
| Last meeting | New England Patriots 10-7 (2025) |
| Denver Broncos 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-1 home |
| Denver Broncos scoring | 23.6 for · 18.3 against |
| New England Patriots 2025 so far | 14-3 · 8-0 away |
| New England Patriots scoring | 28.8 for · 18.8 against |
| Quarterbacks | Jarrett Stidham · Drake Maye |
| Head coaches | Sean Payton · Mike Vrabel |
| Market | Denver Broncos $2.70 · New England Patriots $1.49 |
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 · total 43.5 |
| Referee | Alex Kemp |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Denver Broncos

**Alex Kemp** — 132 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Alex Kemp | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | 5W–2L | 71% |
| New England Patriots | 7W–4L | 64% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Denver Broncos hold a 7-point edge: 5W–2L (71%) vs New England Patriots's 7W–4L (64%). Home teams win 55% of their matches (vs ~55% league avg). Small sample (7 games for Denver Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Denver Broncos | Stat | New England Patriots |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 12.6pts |
| 4.0pts | Avg Margin | 17.8pts |
| 8.0d | Rest Days | 7.0d |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Denver Broncos | W15 W · W16 L · W17 W · W18 W · DIV W | 25.2 |
| New England Patriots | W16 W · W17 W · W18 W · WC W · DIV W | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — New England Patriots lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | CONF | Denver Broncos | 7 – 10 | New England Patriots |
| 2023 | W16 | Denver Broncos | 23 – 26 | New England Patriots |
| 2020 | W6 | New England Patriots | 12 – 18 | Denver Broncos |
| 2017 | W10 | Denver Broncos | 16 – 41 | New England Patriots |
| 2016 | W15 | Denver Broncos | 3 – 16 | New England Patriots |

### TD Scorer History — Who Finds The End Zone

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Empower Field at Mile High. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-td pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. TD % = share of games with a td, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Denver Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | RJ Harvey | RB | 12 in 18g | 7/10g (1·0·0·2·1·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 7/10g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.50 AI 41% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.75 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Courtland Sutton | WR | 7 in 18g | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 18/49g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.50 AI 29% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First TD $13.00 AI 8% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' |
| – | Marvin Mims Jr. | WR | 4 in 16g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/25g | 20% | — | — |
| – | Lil'Jordan Humphrey | WR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 5/16g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Elijah Moore | WR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Evan Engram | TE | 1 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| – | Jaleel McLaughlin | RB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/22g | 14% | — | — |
| – | Pat Bryant | WR | 1 in 14g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| – | Adam Prentice | RB | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Jarrett Stidham | QB | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| – | Tyler Badie | RB | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/12g | 3% | — | — |

**New England Patriots** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | TD % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| – | TreVeyon Henderson | RB | 10 in 19g | 9/10g (2·3·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.90 AI 33% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | Rhamondre Stevenson | RB | 9 in 16g | 7/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·3·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime TD $2.45 AI 43% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Hunter Henry | TE | 8 in 19g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime TD $3.15 AI 34% ✗ No TD; 🎯 First TD $11.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| – | Kayshon Boutte | WR | 7 in 16g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| – | Stefon Diggs | WR | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| – | DeMario Douglas | WR | 4 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| – | Drake Maye | QB | 4 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 28' |
| – | Mack Hollins | WR | 2 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime TD $4.60 AI 28% ✗ No TD | — |
| – | D'Ernest Johnson | RB | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### End Zone Map — Where Our Picks Have Been Scoring

_Real touchdowns, not predictions: every score each of our picks made in his last five games. The percentage is our model's chance he scores in this game._

**New England Patriots** (4 picks)
- ⚡ Rhamondre Stevenson 🎯 — 6 TDs in last 5 (4 rush · 2 pass) · model 43% · no TD
- ⚡ Hunter Henry 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 3 pass) · model 34% · no TD
- ⚡ TreVeyon Henderson — 2 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 0 pass) · model 33% · no TD
- ⚡ Mack Hollins — 0 TDs in last 5 · model 28% · no TD
- Rest of the Patriots: 8 TDs across the team's last 5
- Other scorers this game: D.Maye

**Denver Broncos** (2 picks)
- ⚡ RJ Harvey 🎯 — 3 TDs in last 5 (2 rush · 1 pass) · model 41% · no TD
- ⚡ Courtland Sutton 🎯 — 2 TDs in last 5 (0 rush · 2 pass) · model 29% · **scored Q1**
- Rest of the Broncos: 8 TDs across the team's last 5

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Denver Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1678 vs 1642), but the market favours New England Patriots (@1.49). The model sides with ELO, Denver Broncos predicted to win despite longer odds.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Denver Broncos 1678 · New England Patriots 1642 · ELO difference: 36 in favour of Denver Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — unit strength index from player ratings: 50 is league average, 75+ is elite, 25 and under is a weakness

| Unit | Denver Broncos | New England Patriots | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quarterback | 47 | 64 | New England Patriots +17 |
| Receiving Corps | 45 | 71 | New England Patriots +26 |
| Backfield | 46 | 64 | New England Patriots +18 |
| Pass Rush | 58 | 53 | Denver Broncos +5 |
| Secondary | 59 | 66 | New England Patriots +7 |
| Special Teams | 74 | 56 | Denver Broncos +18 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team Rating (ELO) | 30.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 2 | Quarterback | 18.0% | New England Patriots |
| 3 | Pass Rush | 12.0% | Denver Broncos |
| 4 | Secondary | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 5 | Recent Form | 10.0% | New England Patriots |
| 6 | Rest Advantage | 8.0% | — |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Denver Broncos predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-01-25 20:00 UTC (latest tip update)