# NFL Week 5 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 5 of the 2025 season — 14 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 5 at a glance
- 14 matches · 20W–22L on 42 settled picks (48% strike rate) · best value +38.3% edge

## Week 5 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.23 | Los Angeles Rams 81% | LOST |
| Cleveland Browns v Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings @ $1.51 | Minnesota Vikings 65% | WON |
| Baltimore Ravens v Houston Texans | Houston Texans @ $1.68 | Houston Texans 76% | WON |
| Carolina Panthers v Miami Dolphins | Miami Dolphins @ $1.83 | Miami Dolphins 68% | LOST |
| Indianapolis Colts v Las Vegas Raiders | Indianapolis Colts @ $1.28 | Indianapolis Colts 79% | WON |
| New Orleans Saints v New York Giants | New Orleans Saints @ $1.83 | New Orleans Saints 85% | WON |
| New York Jets v Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys @ $1.95 | Dallas Cowboys 66% | WON |
| Philadelphia Eagles v Denver Broncos | Philadelphia Eagles @ $1.46 | Philadelphia Eagles 68% | LOST |
| Arizona Cardinals v Tennessee Titans | Arizona Cardinals @ $1.24 | Arizona Cardinals 87% | LOST |
| Seattle Seahawks v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.56 | Seattle Seahawks 81% | LOST |
| Cincinnati Bengals v Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions @ $1.17 | Detroit Lions 80% | WON |
| Los Angeles Chargers v Washington Commanders | Washington Commanders @ $2.30 | Washington Commanders 82% | WON |
| Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots | Buffalo Bills @ $1.25 | Buffalo Bills 68% | LOST |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.51 | Kansas City Chiefs 66% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Los Angeles Rams v San Francisco 49ers
Fri, 03 Oct, 10:15 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Rams 80.9% / San Francisco 49ers 19.1%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.23 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 80.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 12 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-los-angeles-rams-v-san-francisco-49ers

### Cleveland Browns v Minnesota Vikings
Mon, 06 Oct, 12:30 am AEDT · FirstEnergy Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 34.9% / Minnesota Vikings 65.1%
- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.51 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 65.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 7 · Predicted total: 31
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-cleveland-browns-v-minnesota-vikings

### Baltimore Ravens v Houston Texans
Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · M&T Bank Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Baltimore Ravens 24.4% / Houston Texans 75.6%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.68 (edge +15.9%) — model probability 75.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 1 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-baltimore-ravens-v-houston-texans

### Carolina Panthers v Miami Dolphins
Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Bank of America Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Carolina Panthers 31.6% / Miami Dolphins 68.4%
- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $1.83 (edge +13.9%) — model probability 68.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 2 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-carolina-panthers-v-miami-dolphins

### Indianapolis Colts v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Indianapolis Colts 78.7% / Las Vegas Raiders 21.3%
- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.28 (edge +0.4%) — model probability 78.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Indianapolis Colts -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 11 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-indianapolis-colts-v-las-vegas-raiders

### New Orleans Saints v New York Giants
Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: New Orleans Saints 84.9% / New York Giants 15.1%
- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.83 (edge +30.3%) — model probability 84.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New Orleans Saints by 9 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-new-orleans-saints-v-new-york-giants

### New York Jets v Dallas Cowboys
Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · MetLife Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: New York Jets 34.5% / Dallas Cowboys 65.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.95 (edge +14.3%) — model probability 65.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New York Jets by 1 · Predicted total: 54
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-new-york-jets-v-dallas-cowboys

### Philadelphia Eagles v Denver Broncos
Mon, 06 Oct, 04:00 am AEDT · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 67.5% / Denver Broncos 32.5%
- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.46 (edge -1.0%) — model probability 67.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-philadelphia-eagles-v-denver-broncos

### Arizona Cardinals v Tennessee Titans
Mon, 06 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT · State Farm Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Arizona Cardinals 87.4% / Tennessee Titans 12.6%
- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $1.24 (edge +6.5%) — model probability 87.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 9 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-arizona-cardinals-v-tennessee-titans

### Seattle Seahawks v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 06 Oct, 07:05 am AEDT · Lumen Field · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Seattle Seahawks 81.3% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 18.7%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.56 (edge +17.0%) — model probability 81.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-seattle-seahawks-v-tampa-bay-buccaneers

### Cincinnati Bengals v Detroit Lions
Mon, 06 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · Paycor Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 20.1% / Detroit Lions 79.9%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.17 (edge -5.3%) — model probability 79.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 21 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-cincinnati-bengals-v-detroit-lions

### Los Angeles Chargers v Washington Commanders
Mon, 06 Oct, 07:25 am AEDT · SoFi Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 18.2% / Washington Commanders 81.8%
- **Head to Head:** Washington Commanders to win @ $2.30 (edge +38.3%) — model probability 81.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 1 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-los-angeles-chargers-v-washington-commanders

### Buffalo Bills v New England Patriots
Mon, 06 Oct, 11:20 am AEDT · New Era Field · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 68.4% / New England Patriots 31.6%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.25 (edge -11.4%) — model probability 68.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 5 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-buffalo-bills-v-new-england-patriots

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Kansas City Chiefs
Tue, 07 Oct, 11:15 am AEDT · TIAA Bank Stadium · Week 5
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 34.2% / Kansas City Chiefs 65.8%
- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.51 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 65.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 4 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r5-jacksonville-jaguars-v-kansas-city-chiefs

## Model performance (2025)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/4 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/4.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/6 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/6.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-10-07 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)