# NFL Week 4 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 4 of the 2025 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 4 at a glance
- 16 matches · 29W–18L on 47 settled picks (62% strike rate) · 1 pick pending · best value +34.1% edge

## Week 4 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks | Arizona Cardinals @ $2.05 | Arizona Cardinals 66% | LOST |
| Pittsburgh Steelers v Minnesota Vikings | Minnesota Vikings @ $1.68 | Minnesota Vikings 87% | LOST |
| Atlanta Falcons v Washington Commanders | Atlanta Falcons @ $1.70 | Atlanta Falcons 76% | WON |
| Buffalo Bills v New Orleans Saints | Buffalo Bills @ $1.07 | Buffalo Bills 99% | WON |
| Detroit Lions v Cleveland Browns | Detroit Lions @ $1.18 | Detroit Lions 92% | WON |
| Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans | Houston Texans @ $1.23 | Houston Texans 86% | WON |
| New England Patriots v Carolina Panthers | New England Patriots @ $1.38 | New England Patriots 58% | WON |
| New York Giants v Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers @ $1.35 | Los Angeles Chargers 91% | LOST |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Philadelphia Eagles | Philadelphia Eagles @ $1.54 | Philadelphia Eagles 53% | WON |
| Los Angeles Rams v Indianapolis Colts | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.54 | Los Angeles Rams 62% | WON |
| San Francisco 49ers v Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars @ $2.50 | Jacksonville Jaguars 74% | WON |
| Kansas City Chiefs v Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens @ $1.68 | Baltimore Ravens 62% | LOST |
| Las Vegas Raiders v Chicago Bears | Las Vegas Raiders @ $1.80 | Las Vegas Raiders 57% | LOST |
| Dallas Cowboys v Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers @ $1.29 | Green Bay Packers 89% | — |
| Miami Dolphins v New York Jets | Miami Dolphins @ $1.68 | Miami Dolphins 62% | WON |
| Denver Broncos v Cincinnati Bengals | Denver Broncos @ $1.21 | Denver Broncos 90% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Arizona Cardinals v Seattle Seahawks
Fri, 26 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · State Farm Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Arizona Cardinals 66.0% / Seattle Seahawks 34.0%
- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $2.05 (edge +17.3%) — model probability 66.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 6 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-arizona-cardinals-v-seattle-seahawks

### Pittsburgh Steelers v Minnesota Vikings
Sun, 28 Sept, 11:30 pm AEST · Acrisure Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 12.8% / Minnesota Vikings 87.2%
- **Head to Head:** Minnesota Vikings to win @ $1.68 (edge +27.5%) — model probability 87.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 3 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-pittsburgh-steelers-v-minnesota-vikings

### Atlanta Falcons v Washington Commanders
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Atlanta Falcons 75.6% / Washington Commanders 24.4%
- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.70 (edge +16.9%) — model probability 75.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-atlanta-falcons-v-washington-commanders

### Buffalo Bills v New Orleans Saints
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · New Era Field · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 98.6% / New Orleans Saints 1.4%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.07 (edge +5.5%) — model probability 98.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New Orleans Saints +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 14 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-buffalo-bills-v-new-orleans-saints

### Detroit Lions v Cleveland Browns
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Ford Field · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Detroit Lions 92.1% / Cleveland Browns 7.9%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.18 (edge +7.5%) — model probability 92.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions -10 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 14 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-detroit-lions-v-cleveland-browns

### Houston Texans v Tennessee Titans
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · NRG Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Houston Texans 86.1% / Tennessee Titans 13.9%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.23 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 86.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 6 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-houston-texans-v-tennessee-titans

### New England Patriots v Carolina Panthers
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Gillette Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: New England Patriots 57.7% / Carolina Panthers 42.3%
- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.38 (edge -14.9%) — model probability 57.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 2 · Predicted total: 34
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-new-england-patriots-v-carolina-panthers

### New York Giants v Los Angeles Chargers
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · MetLife Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: New York Giants 8.8% / Los Angeles Chargers 91.2%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.35 (edge +17.2%) — model probability 91.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 15 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-new-york-giants-v-los-angeles-chargers

### Tampa Bay Buccaneers v Philadelphia Eagles
Mon, 29 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Raymond James Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46.7% / Philadelphia Eagles 53.3%
- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.54 (edge -11.6%) — model probability 53.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 0 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-philadelphia-eagles

### Los Angeles Rams v Indianapolis Colts
Mon, 29 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Rams 62.0% / Indianapolis Colts 38.0%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.54 (edge -2.9%) — model probability 62.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Rams -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 3 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-los-angeles-rams-v-indianapolis-colts

### San Francisco 49ers v Jacksonville Jaguars
Mon, 29 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Levi's Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: San Francisco 49ers 25.9% / Jacksonville Jaguars 74.1%
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $2.50 (edge +34.1%) — model probability 74.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-san-francisco-49ers-v-jacksonville-jaguars

### Kansas City Chiefs v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 29 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 38.4% / Baltimore Ravens 61.6%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.68 (edge +2.0%) — model probability 61.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 1 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-kansas-city-chiefs-v-baltimore-ravens

### Las Vegas Raiders v Chicago Bears
Mon, 29 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Allegiant Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 56.9% / Chicago Bears 43.1%
- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $1.80 (edge +1.3%) — model probability 56.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Chicago Bears by 2 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-las-vegas-raiders-v-chicago-bears

### Dallas Cowboys v Green Bay Packers
Mon, 29 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · AT&T Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Dallas Cowboys 11.1% / Green Bay Packers 88.9%
- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.29 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 88.9%
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 4 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-dallas-cowboys-v-green-bay-packers

### Miami Dolphins v New York Jets
Tue, 30 Sept, 09:15 am AEST · Hard Rock Stadium · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Miami Dolphins 62.3% / New York Jets 37.7%
- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $1.68 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 62.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 3 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-miami-dolphins-v-new-york-jets

### Denver Broncos v Cincinnati Bengals
Tue, 30 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 4
Alphr AI win probability: Denver Broncos 90.3% / Cincinnati Bengals 9.7%
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.21 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 90.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 14 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r4-denver-broncos-v-cincinnati-bengals

## Model performance (2025)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/3 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/3.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/5 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/5.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-30 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)