# NFL Week 3 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 3 of the 2025 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 3 at a glance
- 16 matches · 26W–22L on 48 settled picks (54% strike rate) · best value +31.4% edge

## Week 3 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins | Buffalo Bills @ $1.13 | Buffalo Bills 94% | WON |
| Carolina Panthers v Atlanta Falcons | Atlanta Falcons @ $1.44 | Atlanta Falcons 86% | LOST |
| Cleveland Browns v Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers @ $1.21 | Green Bay Packers 75% | LOST |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans | Houston Texans @ $2.05 | Houston Texans 80% | LOST |
| Minnesota Vikings v Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals @ $2.36 | Cincinnati Bengals 56% | LOST |
| New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers @ $1.83 | Pittsburgh Steelers 68% | WON |
| Philadelphia Eagles v Los Angeles Rams | Philadelphia Eagles @ $1.51 | Philadelphia Eagles 77% | WON |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New York Jets | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $1.29 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 89% | WON |
| Tennessee Titans v Indianapolis Colts | Indianapolis Colts @ $1.41 | Indianapolis Colts 69% | WON |
| Washington Commanders v Las Vegas Raiders | Las Vegas Raiders @ $2.30 | Las Vegas Raiders 54% | LOST |
| Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos | Los Angeles Chargers @ $1.65 | Los Angeles Chargers 86% | WON |
| Seattle Seahawks v New Orleans Saints | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.27 | Seattle Seahawks 61% | WON |
| Chicago Bears v Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys @ $1.80 | Dallas Cowboys 56% | LOST |
| San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals @ $2.05 | Arizona Cardinals 57% | LOST |
| New York Giants v Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.31 | Kansas City Chiefs 72% | WON |
| Baltimore Ravens v Detroit Lions | Baltimore Ravens @ $1.41 | Baltimore Ravens 67% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Buffalo Bills v Miami Dolphins
Fri, 19 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · New Era Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 93.8% / Miami Dolphins 6.3%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.13 (edge +4.9%) — model probability 93.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 17 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-buffalo-bills-v-miami-dolphins

### Carolina Panthers v Atlanta Falcons
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Bank of America Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Carolina Panthers 13.5% / Atlanta Falcons 86.5%
- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.44 (edge +17.3%) — model probability 86.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 13 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-carolina-panthers-v-atlanta-falcons

### Cleveland Browns v Green Bay Packers
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · FirstEnergy Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 24.7% / Green Bay Packers 75.3%
- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.21 (edge -7.2%) — model probability 75.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 0 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-cleveland-browns-v-green-bay-packers

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Houston Texans
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · TIAA Bank Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 19.8% / Houston Texans 80.2%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $2.05 (edge +31.4%) — model probability 80.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 3 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-jacksonville-jaguars-v-houston-texans

### Minnesota Vikings v Cincinnati Bengals
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · U.S. Bank Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Minnesota Vikings 44.2% / Cincinnati Bengals 55.8%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $2.36 (edge +13.5%) — model probability 55.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 1 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-minnesota-vikings-v-cincinnati-bengals

### New England Patriots v Pittsburgh Steelers
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Gillette Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: New England Patriots 32.4% / Pittsburgh Steelers 67.6%
- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.83 (edge +13.0%) — model probability 67.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Pittsburgh Steelers -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 0 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-new-england-patriots-v-pittsburgh-steelers

### Philadelphia Eagles v Los Angeles Rams
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 77.0% / Los Angeles Rams 23.0%
- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.51 (edge +10.5%) — model probability 77.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 11 · Predicted total: 58
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-philadelphia-eagles-v-los-angeles-rams

### Tampa Bay Buccaneers v New York Jets
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Raymond James Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Tampa Bay Buccaneers 88.6% / New York Jets 11.4%
- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.29 (edge +11.1%) — model probability 88.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 5 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-tampa-bay-buccaneers-v-new-york-jets

### Tennessee Titans v Indianapolis Colts
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Nissan Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Tennessee Titans 31.3% / Indianapolis Colts 68.7%
- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.41 (edge -2.3%) — model probability 68.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Indianapolis Colts by 9 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-tennessee-titans-v-indianapolis-colts

### Washington Commanders v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 22 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · FedExField · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Washington Commanders 45.8% / Las Vegas Raiders 54.3%
- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $2.30 (edge +10.8%) — model probability 54.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Washington Commanders by 5 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-washington-commanders-v-las-vegas-raiders

### Los Angeles Chargers v Denver Broncos
Mon, 22 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 85.9% / Denver Broncos 14.1%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.65 (edge +25.1%) — model probability 85.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 2 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-los-angeles-chargers-v-denver-broncos

### Seattle Seahawks v New Orleans Saints
Mon, 22 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Lumen Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Seattle Seahawks 60.7% / New Orleans Saints 39.3%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.27 (edge -18.2%) — model probability 60.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 3 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-seattle-seahawks-v-new-orleans-saints

### Chicago Bears v Dallas Cowboys
Mon, 22 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Soldier Field · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Chicago Bears 44.5% / Dallas Cowboys 55.5%
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.80 (edge +0.0%) — model probability 55.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 5 · Predicted total: 52
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-chicago-bears-v-dallas-cowboys

### San Francisco 49ers v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 22 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Levi's Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: San Francisco 49ers 43.4% / Arizona Cardinals 56.6%
- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $2.05 (edge +7.8%) — model probability 56.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 1 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-san-francisco-49ers-v-arizona-cardinals

### New York Giants v Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, 22 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · MetLife Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: New York Giants 28.0% / Kansas City Chiefs 72.0%
- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.31 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 15 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-new-york-giants-v-kansas-city-chiefs

### Baltimore Ravens v Detroit Lions
Tue, 23 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · M&T Bank Stadium · Week 3
Alphr AI win probability: Baltimore Ravens 67.2% / Detroit Lions 32.9%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.41 (edge -3.9%) — model probability 67.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 6 · Predicted total: 59
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r3-baltimore-ravens-v-detroit-lions

## Model performance (2025)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/2 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/2.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/4 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/4.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-23 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)