# NFL Week 17 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 17 of the 2025 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 17 at a glance
- 16 matches · 26W–22L on 48 settled picks (54% strike rate) · best value +32.2% edge

## Week 17 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Washington Commanders v Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys @ $1.20 | Dallas Cowboys 97% | WON |
| Minnesota Vikings v Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions @ $1.28 | Detroit Lions 70% | LOST |
| Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos | Denver Broncos @ $1.09 | Denver Broncos 77% | WON |
| Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans | Los Angeles Chargers @ $1.85 | Los Angeles Chargers 55% | LOST |
| Green Bay Packers v Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens @ $2.20 | Baltimore Ravens 51% | WON |
| Carolina Panthers v Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks @ $1.33 | Seattle Seahawks 73% | WON |
| Cincinnati Bengals v Arizona Cardinals | Cincinnati Bengals @ $1.29 | Cincinnati Bengals 82% | WON |
| Cleveland Browns v Pittsburgh Steelers | Pittsburgh Steelers @ $1.49 | Pittsburgh Steelers 73% | LOST |
| Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars | Jacksonville Jaguars @ $1.44 | Jacksonville Jaguars 58% | WON |
| Miami Dolphins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $1.40 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 55% | LOST |
| New York Jets v New England Patriots | New England Patriots @ $1.11 | New England Patriots 93% | WON |
| Tennessee Titans v New Orleans Saints | New Orleans Saints @ $1.83 | New Orleans Saints 64% | WON |
| Las Vegas Raiders v New York Giants | Las Vegas Raiders @ $2.36 | Las Vegas Raiders 75% | LOST |
| Buffalo Bills v Philadelphia Eagles | Buffalo Bills @ $1.59 | Buffalo Bills 51% | LOST |
| San Francisco 49ers v Chicago Bears | San Francisco 49ers @ $1.49 | San Francisco 49ers 72% | WON |
| Atlanta Falcons v Los Angeles Rams | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.26 | Los Angeles Rams 85% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Washington Commanders v Dallas Cowboys
Fri, 26 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · FedExField · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Washington Commanders 3.1% / Dallas Cowboys 96.9%
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.20 (edge +13.6%) — model probability 96.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 13 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-washington-commanders-v-dallas-cowboys

### Minnesota Vikings v Detroit Lions
Fri, 26 Dec, 08:30 am AEDT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Minnesota Vikings 29.7% / Detroit Lions 70.3%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $1.28 (edge -8.0%) — model probability 70.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings +7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 7 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-minnesota-vikings-v-detroit-lions

### Kansas City Chiefs v Denver Broncos
Fri, 26 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT · GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Kansas City Chiefs 23.5% / Denver Broncos 76.5%
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.09 (edge -15.1%) — model probability 76.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 6 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-kansas-city-chiefs-v-denver-broncos

### Los Angeles Chargers v Houston Texans
Sun, 28 Dec, 08:30 am AEDT · SoFi Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 55.1% / Houston Texans 44.9%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.85 (edge +0.9%) — model probability 55.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 3 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-los-angeles-chargers-v-houston-texans

### Green Bay Packers v Baltimore Ravens
Sun, 28 Dec, 12:00 pm AEDT · Lambeau Field · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Green Bay Packers 48.8% / Baltimore Ravens 51.2%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $2.20 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 51.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Green Bay Packers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 38.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 4 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-green-bay-packers-v-baltimore-ravens

### Carolina Panthers v Seattle Seahawks
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · Bank of America Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Carolina Panthers 26.8% / Seattle Seahawks 73.2%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $1.33 (edge -2.1%) — model probability 73.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 10 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-carolina-panthers-v-seattle-seahawks

### Cincinnati Bengals v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · Paycor Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Cincinnati Bengals 82.3% / Arizona Cardinals 17.7%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.29 (edge +4.8%) — model probability 82.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals -7 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cincinnati Bengals by 11 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-cincinnati-bengals-v-arizona-cardinals

### Cleveland Browns v Pittsburgh Steelers
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · FirstEnergy Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 27.1% / Pittsburgh Steelers 72.9%
- **Head to Head:** Pittsburgh Steelers to win @ $1.49 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 72.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 35.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 0 · Predicted total: 32
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-cleveland-browns-v-pittsburgh-steelers

### Indianapolis Colts v Jacksonville Jaguars
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Indianapolis Colts 42.0% / Jacksonville Jaguars 58.0%
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.44 (edge -11.3%) — model probability 58.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Jacksonville Jaguars -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 2 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-indianapolis-colts-v-jacksonville-jaguars

### Miami Dolphins v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · Hard Rock Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Miami Dolphins 45.4% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 54.6%
- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.40 (edge -16.8%) — model probability 54.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Tampa Bay Buccaneers by 8 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-miami-dolphins-v-tampa-bay-buccaneers

### New York Jets v New England Patriots
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · MetLife Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: New York Jets 7.4% / New England Patriots 92.6%
- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.11 (edge +2.1%) — model probability 92.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 15 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-new-york-jets-v-new-england-patriots

### Tennessee Titans v New Orleans Saints
Mon, 29 Dec, 05:00 am AEDT · Nissan Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Tennessee Titans 36.2% / New Orleans Saints 63.8%
- **Head to Head:** New Orleans Saints to win @ $1.83 (edge +9.2%) — model probability 63.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Tennessee Titans by 7 · Predicted total: 40
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-tennessee-titans-v-new-orleans-saints

### Las Vegas Raiders v New York Giants
Mon, 29 Dec, 08:05 am AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 74.6% / New York Giants 25.4%
- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $2.36 (edge +32.2%) — model probability 74.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 3 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-las-vegas-raiders-v-new-york-giants

### Buffalo Bills v Philadelphia Eagles
Mon, 29 Dec, 08:25 am AEDT · New Era Field · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 51.2% / Philadelphia Eagles 48.8%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.59 (edge -11.7%) — model probability 51.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 2 · Predicted total: 56
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-buffalo-bills-v-philadelphia-eagles

### San Francisco 49ers v Chicago Bears
Mon, 29 Dec, 12:20 pm AEDT · Levi's Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: San Francisco 49ers 71.6% / Chicago Bears 28.4%
- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.49 (edge +4.4%) — model probability 71.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: San Francisco 49ers by 7 · Predicted total: 58
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-san-francisco-49ers-v-chicago-bears

### Atlanta Falcons v Los Angeles Rams
Tue, 30 Dec, 12:15 pm AEDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 17
Alphr AI win probability: Atlanta Falcons 14.7% / Los Angeles Rams 85.3%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.26 (edge +6.1%) — model probability 85.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 6 · Predicted total: 43
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r17-atlanta-falcons-v-los-angeles-rams

## Model performance (2025)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/16 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/16.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/18 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/18.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/17
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-12-30 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)