# NFL Week 11 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 11 of the 2025 season — 15 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 11 at a glance
- 15 matches · 29W–16L on 45 settled picks (64% strike rate) · best value +48.0% edge

## Week 11 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| New England Patriots v New York Jets | New England Patriots @ $1.11 | New England Patriots 98% | WON |
| Miami Dolphins v Washington Commanders | Miami Dolphins @ $1.68 | Miami Dolphins 69% | WON |
| Atlanta Falcons v Carolina Panthers | Atlanta Falcons @ $1.46 | Atlanta Falcons 64% | LOST |
| Buffalo Bills v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Buffalo Bills @ $1.35 | Buffalo Bills 76% | WON |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Los Angeles Chargers | Los Angeles Chargers @ $1.65 | Los Angeles Chargers 84% | LOST |
| Minnesota Vikings v Chicago Bears | Chicago Bears @ $2.24 | Chicago Bears 51% | WON |
| New York Giants v Green Bay Packers | Green Bay Packers @ $1.23 | Green Bay Packers 95% | WON |
| Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals @ $3.05 | Cincinnati Bengals 81% | LOST |
| Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans | Houston Texans @ $1.38 | Houston Texans 97% | WON |
| Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco 49ers | San Francisco 49ers @ $1.52 | San Francisco 49ers 54% | WON |
| Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks | Seattle Seahawks @ $2.45 | Seattle Seahawks 74% | LOST |
| Cleveland Browns v Baltimore Ravens | Baltimore Ravens @ $1.23 | Baltimore Ravens 86% | WON |
| Denver Broncos v Kansas City Chiefs | Denver Broncos @ $2.80 | Denver Broncos 66% | WON |
| Philadelphia Eagles v Detroit Lions | Detroit Lions @ $2.30 | Detroit Lions 62% | LOST |
| Las Vegas Raiders v Dallas Cowboys | Dallas Cowboys @ $1.51 | Dallas Cowboys 86% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### New England Patriots v New York Jets
Fri, 14 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT · Gillette Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: New England Patriots 98.1% / New York Jets 1.9%
- **Head to Head:** New England Patriots to win @ $1.11 (edge +7.6%) — model probability 98.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: New England Patriots by 10 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-new-england-patriots-v-new-york-jets

### Miami Dolphins v Washington Commanders
Mon, 17 Nov, 01:30 am AEDT · Hard Rock Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Miami Dolphins 69.1% / Washington Commanders 30.9%
- **Head to Head:** Miami Dolphins to win @ $1.68 (edge +9.4%) — model probability 69.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 2 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-miami-dolphins-v-washington-commanders

### Atlanta Falcons v Carolina Panthers
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Atlanta Falcons 64.4% / Carolina Panthers 35.6%
- **Head to Head:** Atlanta Falcons to win @ $1.46 (edge -4.2%) — model probability 64.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 3 · Predicted total: 42
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-atlanta-falcons-v-carolina-panthers

### Buffalo Bills v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · New Era Field · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 75.9% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24.1%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $1.35 (edge +1.9%) — model probability 75.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 11 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-buffalo-bills-v-tampa-bay-buccaneers

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Los Angeles Chargers
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · TIAA Bank Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 16.1% / Los Angeles Chargers 83.9%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Chargers to win @ $1.65 (edge +23.1%) — model probability 83.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Los Angeles Chargers -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Chargers by 4 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-jacksonville-jaguars-v-los-angeles-chargers

### Minnesota Vikings v Chicago Bears
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · U.S. Bank Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Minnesota Vikings 48.7% / Chicago Bears 51.3%
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $2.24 (edge +6.6%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Chicago Bears +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 1 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-minnesota-vikings-v-chicago-bears

### New York Giants v Green Bay Packers
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · MetLife Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: New York Giants 5.4% / Green Bay Packers 94.6%
- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.23 (edge +13.2%) — model probability 94.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New York Giants +7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 9 · Predicted total: 44
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-new-york-giants-v-green-bay-packers

### Pittsburgh Steelers v Cincinnati Bengals
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Acrisure Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Pittsburgh Steelers 19.2% / Cincinnati Bengals 80.8%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $3.05 (edge +48.0%) — model probability 80.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cincinnati Bengals +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 · Predicted total: 36
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-pittsburgh-steelers-v-cincinnati-bengals

### Tennessee Titans v Houston Texans
Mon, 17 Nov, 05:00 am AEDT · Nissan Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Tennessee Titans 2.8% / Houston Texans 97.2%
- **Head to Head:** Houston Texans to win @ $1.38 (edge +24.6%) — model probability 97.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 17 · Predicted total: 41
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-tennessee-titans-v-houston-texans

### Arizona Cardinals v San Francisco 49ers
Mon, 17 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT · State Farm Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Arizona Cardinals 45.5% / San Francisco 49ers 54.5%
- **Head to Head:** San Francisco 49ers to win @ $1.52 (edge -11.3%) — model probability 54.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 1 · Predicted total: 50
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-arizona-cardinals-v-san-francisco-49ers

### Los Angeles Rams v Seattle Seahawks
Mon, 17 Nov, 08:05 am AEDT · SoFi Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Rams 26.1% / Seattle Seahawks 73.9%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $2.45 (edge +33.1%) — model probability 73.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Seattle Seahawks +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Los Angeles Rams by 2 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-los-angeles-rams-v-seattle-seahawks

### Cleveland Browns v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 17 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT · FirstEnergy Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 13.8% / Baltimore Ravens 86.2%
- **Head to Head:** Baltimore Ravens to win @ $1.23 (edge +4.7%) — model probability 86.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Baltimore Ravens -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Baltimore Ravens by 10 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-cleveland-browns-v-baltimore-ravens

### Denver Broncos v Kansas City Chiefs
Mon, 17 Nov, 08:25 am AEDT · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Denver Broncos 66.4% / Kansas City Chiefs 33.6%
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $2.80 (edge +30.7%) — model probability 66.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Denver Broncos +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 1 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-denver-broncos-v-kansas-city-chiefs

### Philadelphia Eagles v Detroit Lions
Mon, 17 Nov, 12:20 pm AEDT · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 37.6% / Detroit Lions 62.3%
- **Head to Head:** Detroit Lions to win @ $2.30 (edge +18.9%) — model probability 62.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Detroit Lions by 1 · Predicted total: 47
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-philadelphia-eagles-v-detroit-lions

### Las Vegas Raiders v Dallas Cowboys
Tue, 18 Nov, 12:15 pm AEDT · Allegiant Stadium · Week 11
Alphr AI win probability: Las Vegas Raiders 14.1% / Dallas Cowboys 85.9%
- **Head to Head:** Dallas Cowboys to win @ $1.51 (edge +19.5%) — model probability 85.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dallas Cowboys -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dallas Cowboys by 5 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r11-las-vegas-raiders-v-dallas-cowboys

## Model performance (2025)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/10 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/10.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/12 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/12.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-11-18 01:15 UTC (latest tip update)