# NFL Week 1 2025 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI NFL predictions for Week 1 of the 2025 season — 16 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Week 1 at a glance
- 16 matches · 27W–21L on 48 settled picks (56% strike rate) · best value +28.8% edge

## Week 1 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Philadelphia Eagles v Dallas Cowboys | Philadelphia Eagles @ $1.24 | Philadelphia Eagles 90% | WON |
| Los Angeles Chargers v Kansas City Chiefs | Kansas City Chiefs @ $1.57 | Kansas City Chiefs 62% | LOST |
| Atlanta Falcons v Tampa Bay Buccaneers | Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ $1.87 | Tampa Bay Buccaneers 67% | WON |
| Cleveland Browns v Cincinnati Bengals | Cincinnati Bengals @ $1.42 | Cincinnati Bengals 73% | WON |
| Indianapolis Colts v Miami Dolphins | Indianapolis Colts @ $1.89 | Indianapolis Colts 65% | WON |
| Jacksonville Jaguars v Carolina Panthers | Jacksonville Jaguars @ $1.49 | Jacksonville Jaguars 73% | WON |
| New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders | Las Vegas Raiders @ $2.30 | Las Vegas Raiders 62% | WON |
| New Orleans Saints v Arizona Cardinals | Arizona Cardinals @ $1.37 | Arizona Cardinals 81% | WON |
| New York Jets v Pittsburgh Steelers | New York Jets @ $2.30 | New York Jets 69% | LOST |
| Washington Commanders v New York Giants | Washington Commanders @ $1.34 | Washington Commanders 81% | WON |
| Denver Broncos v Tennessee Titans | Denver Broncos @ $1.22 | Denver Broncos 75% | WON |
| Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers | Seattle Seahawks @ $2.14 | Seattle Seahawks 62% | LOST |
| Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions | Green Bay Packers @ $1.83 | Green Bay Packers 72% | WON |
| Los Angeles Rams v Houston Texans | Los Angeles Rams @ $1.60 | Los Angeles Rams 56% | WON |
| Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens | Buffalo Bills @ $2.10 | Buffalo Bills 76% | WON |
| Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings | Chicago Bears @ $1.93 | Chicago Bears 53% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Philadelphia Eagles v Dallas Cowboys
Fri, 05 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · Lincoln Financial Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Philadelphia Eagles 90.1% / Dallas Cowboys 9.9%
- **Head to Head:** Philadelphia Eagles to win @ $1.24 (edge +9.2%) — model probability 90.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Philadelphia Eagles -8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Philadelphia Eagles by 7 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-philadelphia-eagles-v-dallas-cowboys

### Los Angeles Chargers v Kansas City Chiefs
Sat, 06 Sept, 10:00 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Chargers 38.0% / Kansas City Chiefs 62.0%
- **Head to Head:** Kansas City Chiefs to win @ $1.57 (edge -1.6%) — model probability 62.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Kansas City Chiefs -3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Kansas City Chiefs by 2 · Predicted total: 53
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-los-angeles-chargers-v-kansas-city-chiefs

### Atlanta Falcons v Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Atlanta Falcons 32.9% / Tampa Bay Buccaneers 67.1%
- **Head to Head:** Tampa Bay Buccaneers to win @ $1.87 (edge +13.6%) — model probability 67.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Atlanta Falcons +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Atlanta Falcons by 0 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-atlanta-falcons-v-tampa-bay-buccaneers

### Cleveland Browns v Cincinnati Bengals
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · FirstEnergy Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Cleveland Browns 26.5% / Cincinnati Bengals 73.5%
- **Head to Head:** Cincinnati Bengals to win @ $1.42 (edge +3.1%) — model probability 73.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cleveland Browns +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cleveland Browns by 2 · Predicted total: 49
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-cleveland-browns-v-cincinnati-bengals

### Indianapolis Colts v Miami Dolphins
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Lucas Oil Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Indianapolis Colts 64.8% / Miami Dolphins 35.2%
- **Head to Head:** Indianapolis Colts to win @ $1.89 (edge +12.0%) — model probability 64.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Miami Dolphins +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Miami Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-indianapolis-colts-v-miami-dolphins

### Jacksonville Jaguars v Carolina Panthers
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · TIAA Bank Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Jacksonville Jaguars 73.2% / Carolina Panthers 26.8%
- **Head to Head:** Jacksonville Jaguars to win @ $1.49 (edge +6.0%) — model probability 73.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carolina Panthers +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Jacksonville Jaguars by 3 · Predicted total: 38
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-jacksonville-jaguars-v-carolina-panthers

### New England Patriots v Las Vegas Raiders
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Gillette Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: New England Patriots 37.9% / Las Vegas Raiders 62.1%
- **Head to Head:** Las Vegas Raiders to win @ $2.30 (edge +18.6%) — model probability 62.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Las Vegas Raiders +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Las Vegas Raiders by 2 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-new-england-patriots-v-las-vegas-raiders

### New Orleans Saints v Arizona Cardinals
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: New Orleans Saints 18.8% / Arizona Cardinals 81.2%
- **Head to Head:** Arizona Cardinals to win @ $1.37 (edge +8.2%) — model probability 81.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Arizona Cardinals -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Arizona Cardinals by 11 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-new-orleans-saints-v-arizona-cardinals

### New York Jets v Pittsburgh Steelers
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · MetLife Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: New York Jets 69.3% / Pittsburgh Steelers 30.7%
- **Head to Head:** New York Jets to win @ $2.30 (edge +25.8%) — model probability 69.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** New York Jets +3 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 37.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Pittsburgh Steelers by 2 · Predicted total: 37
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-new-york-jets-v-pittsburgh-steelers

### Washington Commanders v New York Giants
Mon, 08 Sept, 03:00 am AEST · FedExField · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Washington Commanders 80.5% / New York Giants 19.5%
- **Head to Head:** Washington Commanders to win @ $1.34 (edge +5.7%) — model probability 80.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Washington Commanders -6 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 45.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Washington Commanders by 7 · Predicted total: 36
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-washington-commanders-v-new-york-giants

### Denver Broncos v Tennessee Titans
Mon, 08 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Empower Field at Mile High · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Denver Broncos 75.4% / Tennessee Titans 24.6%
- **Head to Head:** Denver Broncos to win @ $1.22 (edge -6.6%) — model probability 75.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Tennessee Titans +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Denver Broncos by 6 · Predicted total: 51
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-denver-broncos-v-tennessee-titans

### Seattle Seahawks v San Francisco 49ers
Mon, 08 Sept, 06:05 am AEST · Lumen Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Seattle Seahawks 61.7% / San Francisco 49ers 38.3%
- **Head to Head:** Seattle Seahawks to win @ $2.14 (edge +15.0%) — model probability 61.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** San Francisco 49ers -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Seattle Seahawks by 0 · Predicted total: 39
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-seattle-seahawks-v-san-francisco-49ers

### Green Bay Packers v Detroit Lions
Mon, 08 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · Lambeau Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Green Bay Packers 72.5% / Detroit Lions 27.5%
- **Head to Head:** Green Bay Packers to win @ $1.83 (edge +17.9%) — model probability 72.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Detroit Lions +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Green Bay Packers by 8 · Predicted total: 58
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-green-bay-packers-v-detroit-lions

### Los Angeles Rams v Houston Texans
Mon, 08 Sept, 06:25 am AEST · SoFi Stadium · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Los Angeles Rams 56.0% / Houston Texans 44.0%
- **Head to Head:** Los Angeles Rams to win @ $1.60 (edge -6.4%) — model probability 56.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Houston Texans +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Houston Texans by 2 · Predicted total: 48
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-los-angeles-rams-v-houston-texans

### Buffalo Bills v Baltimore Ravens
Mon, 08 Sept, 10:20 am AEST · New Era Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Buffalo Bills 76.4% / Baltimore Ravens 23.6%
- **Head to Head:** Buffalo Bills to win @ $2.10 (edge +28.8%) — model probability 76.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Buffalo Bills +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Buffalo Bills by 2 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-buffalo-bills-v-baltimore-ravens

### Chicago Bears v Minnesota Vikings
Tue, 09 Sept, 10:15 am AEST · Soldier Field · Week 1
Alphr AI win probability: Chicago Bears 52.9% / Minnesota Vikings 47.1%
- **Head to Head:** Chicago Bears to win @ $1.93 (edge +1.0%) — model probability 52.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Minnesota Vikings -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Minnesota Vikings by 4 · Predicted total: 45
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/match/2025-r1-chicago-bears-v-minnesota-vikings

## Model performance (2025)
_No settled predictions yet this season._

## More NFL predictions
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/nfl/2025/round/2 (markdown: /nfl/2025/round/2.md)
- All NFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/nfl (markdown: /nfl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2025-09-09 00:15 UTC (latest tip update)