# AFL Semi Finals 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Semi Finals of the 2026 season — 2 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Semi Finals at a glance
- 2 matches · 3W–5L on 8 settled picks (38% strike rate) · best value +18.7% edge

## Semi Finals predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle v Geelong Cats | Fremantle @ $1.55 | Fremantle 51% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows | Brisbane Lions @ $1.31 | Brisbane Lions 54% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Fremantle v Geelong Cats
Fri, 11 Sept, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 51.1% / Geelong Cats 48.9%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.55 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 51.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Geelong Cats +10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +9.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 1 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-sf-fremantle-v-geelong-cats

### Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sat, 12 Sept, 07:35 pm AEST · Gabba · Semi Finals
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 54.3% / Adelaide Crows 45.8%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.31 (edge -22.1%) — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +22.5 @ $1.89 (edge +18.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 4 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-sf-brisbane-lions-v-adelaide-crows

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 64.1% | 139/217 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.7% | 123/217 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.1% | 87/217 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 48.4% | 105/217 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/qualifying-elimination-finals (markdown: /afl/round/qualifying-elimination-finals.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/preliminary-finals (markdown: /afl/round/preliminary-finals.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-09-12 12:23 UTC (latest tip update)