# AFL Round 9 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 9 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 9 at a glance
- 9 matches · 23W–13L on 36 settled picks (64% strike rate) · best value +47.3% edge

## Round 9 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fremantle v Hawthorn | Fremantle @ $1.68 | Fremantle 56% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Carlton | Brisbane Lions @ $1.09 | Brisbane Lions 57% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs | Port Adelaide @ $1.90 | Port Adelaide 52% | LOST |
| North Melbourne v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.29 | Sydney Swans 54% | WON |
| GWS GIANTS v Essendon | GWS GIANTS @ $1.10 | GWS GIANTS 54% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda | Gold Coast SUNS @ $1.38 | Gold Coast SUNS 50% | WON |
| Geelong Cats v Collingwood | Geelong Cats @ $1.50 | Geelong Cats 57% | WON |
| Melbourne v West Coast Eagles | Melbourne @ $1.11 | Melbourne 57% | WON |
| Richmond v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $1.13 | Adelaide Crows 55% | WON |

## Match-by-match

### Fremantle v Hawthorn
Thu, 07 May, 08:10 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 56.0% / Hawthorn 44.0%
- **Head to Head:** Fremantle to win @ $1.68 (edge -3.5%) — model probability 56.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Hawthorn +5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +1.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Fremantle 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Fremantle by 4 · Predicted total: 147
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-fremantle-v-hawthorn

### Brisbane Lions v Carlton
Fri, 08 May, 07:30 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 57.4% / Carlton 42.6%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.09 (edge -34.3%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +43.5 @ $1.90 (edge +36.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 8 · Predicted total: 147
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-brisbane-lions-v-carlton

### Port Adelaide v Western Bulldogs
Fri, 08 May, 08:10 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 52.3% / Western Bulldogs 47.7%
- **Head to Head:** Port Adelaide to win @ $1.90 (edge -30.0%) — model probability 52.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide -0.5 @ $1.90 (edge +8.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Port Adelaide 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 177.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Port Adelaide by 9 · Predicted total: 140
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-port-adelaide-v-western-bulldogs

### North Melbourne v Sydney Swans
Sat, 09 May, 01:15 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: North Melbourne 46.5% / Sydney Swans 53.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.29 (edge -24.0%) — model probability 53.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +24.5 @ $1.90 (edge +26.8%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 191.5 @ $1.86 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 2 · Predicted total: 144
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-north-melbourne-v-sydney-swans

### GWS GIANTS v Essendon
Sat, 09 May, 04:15 pm AEST · ENGIE Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 53.9% / Essendon 46.1%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $1.10 (edge -37.0%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +42.5 @ $1.90 (edge +30.7%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** GWS GIANTS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: GWS GIANTS by 12 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-gws-giants-v-essendon

### Gold Coast SUNS v St Kilda
Sat, 09 May, 07:10 pm AEST · TIO Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 50.1% / St Kilda 49.9%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $1.38 (edge -22.3%) — model probability 50.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** St Kilda +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +15.1%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 192.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 3 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-gold-coast-suns-v-st-kilda

### Geelong Cats v Collingwood
Sat, 09 May, 07:35 pm AEST · MCG · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 57.4% / Collingwood 42.6%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.50 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 57.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +12.5 @ $1.90 (edge +7.8%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 178.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 5 · Predicted total: 138
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-geelong-cats-v-collingwood

### Melbourne v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 10 May, 01:10 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Melbourne 56.6% / West Coast Eagles 43.4%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.11 (edge -33.5%) — model probability 56.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +42.5 @ $1.90 (edge +30.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 195.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Melbourne by 13 · Predicted total: 141
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-melbourne-v-west-coast-eagles

### Richmond v Adelaide Crows
Sun, 10 May, 03:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 9
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 45.3% / Adelaide Crows 54.7%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.13 (edge -33.8%) — model probability 54.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +37.5 @ $1.90 (edge +47.3%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 180.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 10 · Predicted total: 143
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r9-richmond-v-adelaide-crows

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 62.2% | 112/180 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 56.1% | 101/180 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 40.6% | 73/180 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 51.7% | 93/180 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/8 (markdown: /afl/round/8.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/10 (markdown: /afl/round/10.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

---
Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/9
RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-05-10 10:41 UTC (latest tip update)