# AFL Round 8 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 8 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 8 at a glance
- 9 matches · 17W–19L on 36 settled picks (47% strike rate) · best value +57.9% edge

## Round 8 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Collingwood v Hawthorn | Hawthorn @ $1.21 | Hawthorn 53% | LOST |
| Western Bulldogs v Fremantle | Western Bulldogs @ $3.12 | Western Bulldogs 53% | LOST |
| Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide | Adelaide Crows @ $1.56 | Adelaide Crows 51% | WON |
| Essendon v Brisbane Lions | Brisbane Lions @ $1.07 | Brisbane Lions 54% | WON |
| West Coast Eagles v Richmond | West Coast Eagles @ $1.36 | West Coast Eagles 58% | LOST |
| Geelong Cats v North Melbourne | Geelong Cats @ $1.25 | Geelong Cats 52% | WON |
| Carlton v St Kilda | St Kilda @ $1.52 | St Kilda 51% | WON |
| Sydney Swans v Melbourne | Sydney Swans @ $1.15 | Sydney Swans 64% | WON |
| Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS | GWS GIANTS @ $2.41 | Gold Coast SUNS 50% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Collingwood v Hawthorn
Thu, 30 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST · MCG · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Collingwood 47.5% / Hawthorn 52.5%
- **Head to Head:** Hawthorn to win @ $1.21 (edge -30.1%) — model probability 52.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Collingwood +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge +32.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Collingwood 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Collingwood by 5 · Predicted total: 143
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-collingwood-v-hawthorn

### Western Bulldogs v Fremantle
Fri, 01 May, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 52.6% / Fremantle 47.4%
- **Head to Head:** Western Bulldogs to win @ $3.12 (edge +20.6%) — model probability 52.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +19.5 @ $1.89 (edge +28.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 9 · Predicted total: 135
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-western-bulldogs-v-fremantle

### Adelaide Crows v Port Adelaide
Fri, 01 May, 08:10 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Adelaide Crows 50.7% / Port Adelaide 49.3%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $1.56 (edge -13.4%) — model probability 50.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +9.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Adelaide Crows 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 174.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Adelaide Crows by 6 · Predicted total: 141
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-adelaide-crows-v-port-adelaide

### Essendon v Brisbane Lions
Sat, 02 May, 12:35 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 46.1% / Brisbane Lions 53.9%
- **Head to Head:** Brisbane Lions to win @ $1.07 (edge -39.6%) — model probability 53.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +46.5 @ $1.90 (edge +57.9%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 11 · Predicted total: 136
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-essendon-v-brisbane-lions

### West Coast Eagles v Richmond
Sat, 02 May, 04:15 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: West Coast Eagles 57.7% / Richmond 42.3%
- **Head to Head:** West Coast Eagles to win @ $1.36 (edge -15.8%) — model probability 57.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +19.5 @ $1.90 (edge +30.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** West Coast Eagles 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 182.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: West Coast Eagles by 19 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-west-coast-eagles-v-richmond

### Geelong Cats v North Melbourne
Sat, 02 May, 04:35 pm AEST · GMHBA Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Geelong Cats 51.8% / North Melbourne 48.2%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.25 (edge -28.2%) — model probability 51.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +27.5 @ $1.89 (edge +22.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 193.5 @ $1.88 (edge +1.8%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 5 · Predicted total: 141
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-geelong-cats-v-north-melbourne

### Carlton v St Kilda
Sat, 02 May, 07:35 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Carlton 48.6% / St Kilda 51.4%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.52 (edge -14.4%) — model probability 51.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +12.5 @ $1.89 (edge +19.2%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Carlton 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 183.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 7 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-carlton-v-st-kilda

### Sydney Swans v Melbourne
Sun, 03 May, 03:15 pm AEST · SCG · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Sydney Swans 64.3% / Melbourne 35.7%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.15 (edge -22.6%) — model probability 64.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Melbourne +35.5 @ $1.90 (edge +26.5%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sydney Swans 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sydney Swans by 9 · Predicted total: 142
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-sydney-swans-v-melbourne

### Gold Coast SUNS v GWS GIANTS
Sun, 03 May, 07:20 pm AEST · People First Stadium · Round 8
Alphr AI win probability: Gold Coast SUNS 49.6% / GWS GIANTS 50.4%
- **Head to Head:** GWS GIANTS to win @ $2.41 (edge +8.9%) — model probability 50.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS -10.5 @ $1.90 (edge +3.9%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 14 · Predicted total: 138
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r8-gold-coast-suns-v-gws-giants

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 60.8% | 104/171 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 95/171 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 38.6% | 66/171 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.2% | 91/171 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/7 (markdown: /afl/round/7.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/9 (markdown: /afl/round/9.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-05-03 23:59 UTC (latest tip update)