# AFL Round 7 2026 Predictions & Tips — Alphr

> Free AI AFL predictions for Round 7 of the 2026 season — 9 matches, every head-to-head, line, margin and totals pick published before kick-off and verified after full time. Quote with attribution to Alphr (alphr.com.au).

## Round 7 at a glance
- 9 matches · 10W–26L on 36 settled picks (28% strike rate) · best value +46.7% edge

## Round 7 predictions

| Match | Model pick | Win prob | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans | Sydney Swans @ $1.27 | Sydney Swans 56% | WON |
| Richmond v Melbourne | Melbourne @ $1.13 | Melbourne 59% | WON |
| Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS | Gold Coast SUNS @ $2.22 | Gold Coast SUNS 58% | LOST |
| Essendon v Collingwood | Collingwood @ $1.41 | Collingwood 54% | WON |
| Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats | Geelong Cats @ $1.24 | Geelong Cats 57% | LOST |
| Fremantle v Carlton | Carlton @ $6.70 | Carlton 54% | LOST |
| St Kilda v West Coast Eagles | St Kilda @ $1.11 | St Kilda 59% | WON |
| Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows | Adelaide Crows @ $3.34 | Adelaide Crows 53% | LOST |
| GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne | North Melbourne @ $2.79 | North Melbourne 53% | LOST |

## Match-by-match

### Western Bulldogs v Sydney Swans
Thu, 23 Apr, 07:30 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Western Bulldogs 43.5% / Sydney Swans 56.5%
- **Head to Head:** Sydney Swans to win @ $1.27 (edge -22.3%) — model probability 56.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Western Bulldogs +25.5 @ $1.90 (edge +30.6%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Western Bulldogs 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 188.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Western Bulldogs by 5 · Predicted total: 183
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-western-bulldogs-v-sydney-swans

### Richmond v Melbourne
Fri, 24 Apr, 07:40 pm AEST · MCG · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Richmond 41.3% / Melbourne 58.7%
- **Head to Head:** Melbourne to win @ $1.13 (edge -29.8%) — model probability 58.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Richmond +39.5 @ $1.89 (edge +46.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Richmond 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Richmond by 7 · Predicted total: 180
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-richmond-v-melbourne

### Hawthorn v Gold Coast SUNS
Sat, 25 Apr, 12:15 pm AEST · University of Tasmania Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Hawthorn 41.7% / Gold Coast SUNS 58.3%
- **Head to Head:** Gold Coast SUNS to win @ $2.22 (edge +13.3%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Gold Coast SUNS +6.5 @ $1.90 (edge +10.5%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Gold Coast SUNS 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 180.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Gold Coast SUNS by 4 · Predicted total: 193
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-hawthorn-v-gold-coast-suns

### Essendon v Collingwood
Sat, 25 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST · MCG · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Essendon 46.4% / Collingwood 53.6%
- **Head to Head:** Collingwood to win @ $1.41 (edge -17.3%) — model probability 53.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Essendon +16.5 @ $1.90 (edge +21.7%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Essendon 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 179.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Essendon by 5 · Predicted total: 165
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-essendon-v-collingwood

### Port Adelaide v Geelong Cats
Sat, 25 Apr, 06:35 pm AEST · Adelaide Oval · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Port Adelaide 42.9% / Geelong Cats 57.1%
- **Head to Head:** Geelong Cats to win @ $1.24 (edge -23.6%) — model probability 57.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Port Adelaide +27.5 @ $1.89 (edge +26.6%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Geelong Cats Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 184.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Geelong Cats by 1 · Predicted total: 176
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-port-adelaide-v-geelong-cats

### Fremantle v Carlton
Sat, 25 Apr, 08:15 pm AEST · Optus Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Fremantle 46.0% / Carlton 54.0%
- **Head to Head:** Carlton to win @ $6.70 (edge +39.0%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Carlton +39.5 @ $1.91 (edge +40.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Carlton Draw @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 175.5 @ $1.90 (edge +2.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Carlton by 1 · Predicted total: 169
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-fremantle-v-carlton

### St Kilda v West Coast Eagles
Sun, 26 Apr, 01:10 pm AEST · Marvel Stadium · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: St Kilda 59.3% / West Coast Eagles 40.7%
- **Head to Head:** St Kilda to win @ $1.11 (edge -30.8%) — model probability 59.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** West Coast Eagles +40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +30.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** St Kilda 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 185.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: St Kilda by 11 · Predicted total: 185
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-st-kilda-v-west-coast-eagles

### Brisbane Lions v Adelaide Crows
Sun, 26 Apr, 03:15 pm AEST · Gabba · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: Brisbane Lions 46.8% / Adelaide Crows 53.2%
- **Head to Head:** Adelaide Crows to win @ $3.34 (edge +23.3%) — model probability 53.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Adelaide Crows +21.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Brisbane Lions 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 189.5 @ $1.87 (edge +1.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Brisbane Lions by 3 · Predicted total: 175
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-brisbane-lions-v-adelaide-crows

### GWS GIANTS v North Melbourne
Sun, 26 Apr, 04:40 pm AEST · Corroboree Group Oval Manuka · Round 7
Alphr AI win probability: GWS GIANTS 46.8% / North Melbourne 53.3%
- **Head to Head:** North Melbourne to win @ $2.79 (edge +17.4%) — model probability 53.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** North Melbourne +15.5 @ $1.90 (edge +19.4%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** North Melbourne 1-39 @ $3.30 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 186.5 @ $1.89 (edge +2.1%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: North Melbourne by 4 · Predicted total: 178
Full breakdown: https://alphr.com.au/afl/match/2026-r7-gws-giants-v-north-melbourne

## Model performance (2026)
| Model | Market | Strike rate | Record |
|---|---|---|---|
| Head to Head | Win/Loss | 59.3% | 96/162 |
| Spread / Line | Spread | 55.6% | 90/162 |
| Margin Band | Margin Band | 37% | 60/162 |
| Over/Under | Total Score | 53.7% | 87/162 |

## More AFL predictions
- Previous round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/6 (markdown: /afl/round/6.md)
- Next round: https://alphr.com.au/afl/round/8 (markdown: /afl/round/8.md)
- All AFL rounds & tips: https://alphr.com.au/afl (markdown: /afl.md)

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Last updated: 2026-04-27 01:31 UTC (latest tip update)